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November 15, 2022 07:14 AM UTC

Tuesday Open Thread

  • 42 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Success is finding satisfaction in giving a little more than you take.”

–Christopher Reeve

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42 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

  2. Bold Predictions for 2024.

    Trump runs for Prez in order to grift all the donations. Despite that, Trump is indicted for business practices and espionage/Nat-Sec violations. WWE Takedown between Trump vs Governor DeathSentance for lots of popcorn.

    Democrats run initiatives in every state to restore abortion freedoms. Also initiatives for Voter rights and fair electoral districts.

    Liz Cheney, RINOs and Never-Trumpers start running 3rd Party candidates in every MAGA district and red state, which would guarantee that the Democratic Party sweeps Trifectas everywhere.

      2. Personally, I'd prefer a system similar to Colorado's, minus the vague "communities of interest" and commitment to county boundaries. 

        As a radical idea, set initial drawing to an algorithm keeping census blocks intact and working for geographical compactness, then determine a random spot for the program to begin and build the 8 Congressional districts, 35 Senate seats, and 65 House seats.  I can't think of a good reason to keep Denver and El Paso counties as their own congressional districts. while Adams, Jefferson, and Weld are split into 4 different districts.

        1. I agree about the vague "communities of interest" requirement. As we saw with the 2021 process, COI can be whatever someone wants them to be and are often at conflict with one another and overlapping.

          However, I do think county and municipal boundaries should be respected to level possible. Between the two I would give more precedence to city boundaries since Colorado is one of the very few states which allows municipalities to cross county lines.

          Competitiveness, in my opinion, also should be a bigger consideration than it currently is. I was very disappointed with the Commission in this regard. Out of 8 congressional districts, we only got 1 truly competitiveness one. (by the numbers, CD3 should not have been competitive and only was because one side ran such a skank of a candidate.)  They were presented with several maps that would have had up to 4 competitive districts with only small variations to one they ended up with.

        2. I highly disagree with eliminating those concerns. Having a representative that most closely represents you and your neighbors is the very heart of representative democracy. A programmatic redistricting system that ignores that produces some truly stupid district lines.

  3. Life is good. We may not have won everything (that never happens), but we won all the critical races and then some.

    And the Republican majority in the House is going to be so thin, it'll be an ongoing disaster.

            1. Read earlier today that Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is running to be House Speaker. He one of the dynamic duo of AZ crazies, the other being Paul Gosar.

                  1. We were just discussing this.  Thirty-five House Republicans voted in favor of creating the January 6 Commission (Bacon is one of them)…I would think a few of them might be inclined to support Cheney or Kinzinger as Speaker.

              2. Biggs is a demonstration to show that "McCarthy cannot get 218 votes."

                I've yet to hear of someone being mentioned as a serious contender to McCarthy who has expressed interest in the position.

    2. So, first test for McCarthy: "188-31 vote, with ballots cast by new and returning lawmakers"  That 219 votes, meaning at least some of the "new" are hypothetical, as far as I can tell. 

      And I bet they didn't have a very "secret" ballot process for the vote, either.  Biggs said he was a stalking horse, designed to show McCarthy didn't have 218.  I'm betting the discussion showed that Biggs & friends don't have a path to 218, either. "leadership" constrained by commitments seems to me to be a fast path to on-going disputes.  Narrow victors in NY, OR, & CA may not relish support for the Qwazis of the House conference.

    3. My guess is that there will be mass defections from the Republicans to keep the D a majority.

       

      There has to be a sane Republican or five who sees the party for what it is, an impending disaster and doesn't want to be a part of the upcoming beatdown in '24 and '26, respectively.

       

       

       

       

  5. Looking ahead at 2024. These states have Senate seats up:

    Dem: AZ CA CT DE HI ME MA MI MN MT NV NJ NM NY OH PA RI VT VA WA WV WI

    GOP: FL IN MS MO NE ND TN TX UT WY

    I'm not seeing a lot of hope for a Dem pick-up there, but I do see a few Dem seats that will be uphill battles to hold. (AZ MT OH PA and WV being the hardest ones)

    2. AZ should be a D hold once we ditch Sinema. PA shouldn't be too hard the way the state is starting to shift back toward the blue — and Casey is popular. Sharrod Brown might have problems in OH depending on his opponent, and it's always questionable whether Manchin holds on in WV, or Tester holds in MT. So far, Tester and Manchin have carved out their own particular brands to stay in power. It will help that it's a Presidential election year.

      That GOP list looks like a tough nut to crack, though. Indiana might be the most hopeful, and that's not saying much. Always leave room for the GOP to f up, though.

    3. There is both good news and bad news out of West Virginia.

      The good news is that we will soon be rid of Joe Manchin.

      The bad news is that we will soon be rid of Joe Manchin and his successor will be a Republican.

  6. Close friends and influencers are suggesting registering R to help choose Trump.

    I know it's Trump and Desantis right now, but really I expect several others to show up (Pompeo, Reynolds, Kemp one or two senators and other hangers on) .

    February 2016 I was certain Trump would win. No offense to HRC or Bernie.  So I took no chance – registered R and primaried for someone not Trump.

    2. And I am still not banking on Biden being the Dem nominee in 2024.

      I know he keeps saying he is planning on running again, but at some point I fully expect Jill to look at him and say, "Honey, it's time to go home now."

  7. Crypto Follies & the Collapse of FTX, From Brad DeLong

    The first paragraph of The New York Times article should have read:

    "Sam Bankman-Fried, Caroline Ellison, Nishad Singh, and Gary Wang took roughly $10 billion of customer money from Bahama-located crypto exchange FTX and used it to pay off lenders to their trading firm Alameda Research, according to Alameda CEO Ellison in an internal video meeting last Wednesday that was previously reported by the Wall Street Journal. In an interview, Sam Bankman-Fried expressed regret but offered only limited details. He declared FTX bankrupt last Friday,."

    Instead, it read

    "David Yaffe-Bellany: How Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX Crypto Empire Collapsed: ‘Mr. Bankman-Fried said in an interview that he had expanded too fast and failed to see warning signs. But he shared few details about his handling of FTX customers’ funds: In less than a week, the cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried went from industry leader to industry villain, lost most of his fortune, saw his $32 billion company plunge into bankruptcy and became the target of investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Department."

  8. Has anyone seen or heard from Nutlid since last Tuesday?

    At least Fruit showed up to do his victory lap walk of shame to lament that all is lost.

  9. The readout of the Biden, Xi meeting is in.

    Xi: Taiwan is ours.

    Biden: Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah

    Xi: We will invade Taiwan soon.

    Biden: Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah

    Xi: If you interfere we will stop making official Bronco paperclips and Russel Wilson bobblehead dolls.

    Biden: Taiwan………not that important.

    2. Meanwhile, another loser mini-Trump needed to be told "not to storm the castle" like her hero, and your hero too after the voters of Arizona rejected her sorry ass.

    3. An amphibious assault over 100 miles of ocean?  really??

      There are a bunch of folks like Harlan Ullman who think

      As someone who has examined these issues and the inherent difficulties of mounting a huge amphibious assault on Taiwan, I believe a cataclysmic war is not coming with China and that a direct assault on an island 100 miles away is the last option China would pursue.

      Presidents Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping both understand that war would be a global catastrophe and thus in no one’s interest, especially China’s. Global economies would be wrecked; the use of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons could not be discounted; and powerful internal centrifugal forces in China could be unleashed to end the Communist Party’s control.

      Invade, and there could easily be destruction of the golden goose.  British academic Maria Ryan points out:

      Taiwan’s position in the world of semiconductor manufacturing is a bit like Saudi Arabia’s status in OPEC. [One company] TSMC has a 53% market share of the global foundry market (factories contracted to make chips designed in other countries). Other Taiwan-based manufacturers claim a further 10% of the market.

      I don't think anyone is in favor of the chips hitting the fan.

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