Monday Open Thread

17 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

1. Uh-oh. I might be wrong on one of my projections: AZ-1. The last batch of votes to come in put the Republican ahead by 900 votes and I called it for the Dem. This is Maricopa County, and their counting process is a little different than we are used to in Colorado, so their outstanding ballots to count are mostly early votes, and their process is excruciatingly slow. So it could still flip back, time will tell.

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2. CD-3  outstanding ballots breakout from American Muckrakers

   + 546 military & overseas

   + 1,411 misc. (mistaken county, random review)

   + 966 cured ballots returned

   + 2,570 ballots out to cure (signature didn't match)

      5,493 total outstanding ballots

   Adam  will need 61% or more to prevail. 

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   1. To be hoped for (61%) but not likely.  If Frisch is unsuccessful his 2024 campaign needs to begin the moment 2022 final results are announced.  Assuming the final total is not within the margin for a mandatory recount.  

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3. Can you imagine President Joe Biden calling Secretary of State Jena Griswold this morning saying “I need you to find us 1,123 votes in CD3.  We won that race!  Give me a break!”

   Neither can I.

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   1. On the other hand, Republicans project their worst impulses and desires onto Democrats, because naturally, that's what Republicans would do if they had the power:

      But in response to repeated questions over months, Kelly said he chose to respond now because Trump had publicly claimed last week that he had used the Justice Department and the FBI to help Gov. Ron DeSantis win election in Florida in 2018. Kelly, who was Trump’s chief of staff at the time, said Trump never made such a request. If he had, Kelly said, it would have been an improper use of the Justice Department and the FBI.

      Kelly’s statements are among the most damning from a former high-ranking official about Trump’s efforts to use federal power to his own ends, and come just days before Trump is scheduled to announce another presidential campaign.

      His account of some of Trump’s requests, including his effort to use the Justice Department against his enemies and to remove security clearances for former officials, has been corroborated by other public disclosures and former Trump aides.

      Kelly said that after he initially started working for Trump as his chief of staff in July 2017, he was surprised that Trump actually thought he would follow through on what the president wanted.

      “He initially thought I would do it,” Kelly said. “He thought I would be loyal and obedient to him. I told him we were loyal to our oath to the Constitution.”

      Kelly said Trump had no appreciation for that concept and continued to push him and others to do what he wanted.

      “If he told you to slit someone’s throat, he thought you would go out and do it,” Kelly said.

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      1. Wonder if Gen. Kelly had a similar willingness to cover up illegal commands from superiors in the military….

         He's been holding that information for almost three years (In office July 31, 2017 – January 2, 2019), which I see as clear evidence of a less than total commitment to the Constitution.

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4. duplicate deleted.

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5. How many days has it been since Heidi promised to release a detailed plan on how she was going to eliminate the personal income tax and still balance the budget?

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   1. It's coming. Next week. 

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      1. Be fair.  Heidi has already saved a bundle on inauguration costs.

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      2. Heidi had a great plan, but those damn furries ate it.

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   2. There hasn't been a promise that I heard, but I haven't yet seen Polis, anyone on the Joint Budget Committee, or a legislator clarify plans for operation with "decreasing the state income tax rate from 4.55% to 4.40% (including for domestic and foreign C corporations)".

      Will that cut simply decrease the TABOR refunds?  Or will it have a limiting impact on state expenditures that MUST balance?

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      1. The first thing people will notice is reduced, if any, state income tax refund checks. If less is taken out of their paychecks, less will be coming back. On the upside more, money will be left on the paycheck to begin with. (I'll try not to spend that extra $2.28 per paycheck all in one place).

         Tabor refunds will either be a thing of the past or small enough to simply tack them on to the income tax refund so most people won't even notice them.

         In down-swing years, expenditures will have to be cut. In up-swing years, we might scrape by.

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         1. thanks …

            As with any tax change by percentage, the vast majority at or below 200% of the overall average income will see some change, but it won't be a material amount.  I went back to the state's Blue Book for the 2022 election and found that taxpayers with income up to $200,000 will get an average of -$182 or less.  Those with a taxable income over $1 million will see an average cut of averaging -$6,647.

            is anyone in the legislature thinking of a progressive tax rate?  Or at least a continuation of this year's set amount refund?

             

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6. It's not just the income tax rate reduction.  Voters also approved taking $300M from the General Fund for affordable housing initiatives.  While desirable (IMO) that's another hit that must be accomodated.

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   1. To be a bit more specific:

      1. The affordable housing initiative was not planned with the tax cut in mind.

      2. By my understanding, the housing initiative first comes out of TABOR refund money, and is otherwise funded at the discretion of the legislature. It will be first on the chopping block in lean times.

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   2. Blue Book says:

      A “yes” vote on Proposition 123 sets aside money for new affordable housing programs and exempts this money from the state’s revenue limit.

      A “no” vote on Proposition 123 means that state  revenue will continue to be spent on priorities as determined by the state legislature or returned to taxpayers, as under current law.

      How much ??? "up to 0.1 percent of taxable income each year,"   I think I can accept that hit.

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