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November 09, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Thursday Open Thread

  • 62 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We’re still exhaling.

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62 thoughts on “Thursday Open Thread”

    1. Answering myself:

      While most national election forecasters rate the seat as safely Republican, Frisch released internal polling a month ago that showed the race in a statistical dead heat, with the incumbent pulling 47% support to his 45%, with another 7% undecided.

  3. Nevada is a largely mail-in state and counts ballots postmarked on or before election day, allowing four days to arrive.  Thoughts and prayers folks!  Our girl will win and clinch the Senate.  Then abortion boy loses in Georgia.

    51-49 Senate.  Just be patient.

    And keep those beer coolers coming.

  4. Clueless WOTD from the New York Times, mid-day on Tuesday.

    "Bennet wins a third Senate term, in a tougher-than-expected fight."

    Bennet's 12 point win was tougher than… what?

  5. My question for all of you today is, will Republicans still have to kiss the ring, or has Trumpty Dumpty (I love that headline) finally jumped the shark?  He took quite a beating and is getting hammered from all corners. This has an impact on his "announcement", his legal issues, his families' legal issues, his stupid SPAC merger, his future, everything…

    I am guessing Kevin is so freaking spineless he'll continue to take his calls, and he's spooked by MTG, which is a very weak look.

    McTurtle has had enough of him, but he may be replaced by the medicare fraudster anyway, who I think is tight with TFG.

    The finger pointing and realignment has begun. Going to be interesting.

    1. Honestly, I think the OD is standing on thin ice, and he can hear it cracking. 

      We have not heard much from the DOJ, but now that the election is over, the self-imposed restraint about prosecuting just before an election is removed. I expect a flurry of activity from the dogs at Trumpty Dumpties' heels.

       

          1. I respectfully disagree David. I think the Republican party got everything they could possibly get out of Trump, and now that he's a liability, they'll kick him to the curb. The way he is perceived gets even worse if he's prosecuted, as Duke points out. He can hold as many rallies with seas of red hatted brain stems as he wants, but I think the establishment is going to step away.

            1. I kinda think you're both right.  The establishment will try to distance themselves from him.  His followers will still say he's their messiah and they'll be mobilized by them.  

              This will likely cause some kind of schism in the GOP.  How that plays out is anyone's guess.

            2. When you've lost Murdock… Yep, He's Toast.

              The WSJ and the NY Post are over Trump. Which means Rupert is over Trump. Which means Trump is over. (As he has been for quite some time.) This may actually be a rare case of the right wing media scooping real journalists.

            3. Then he will announce that he is setting up a third party. The Party of MAGA.

              At least that should assure that the Dem presidential nominee in 2024 wins. Think what Teddy Roosevelt did to Howard Taft in 1912.

              Instead of calling his party the Bull Moose Party, they could call Trump's new party, the Bull Shit Party.

    2. The Pueblo Chieftain tweeted this morning that upwards of 6800 ballots remain to be counted this morning in the county. That's… a lot for two days after the election.

      The Frisch campaign is calling for assistance in contacting voters whose ballots need to be cured; there are 550 such ballots in Pueblo County alone so far. Chances are good that this will roll in to a recount, either automatically or at the losing party's request.

  7. It bears repeating: Abortion rights and defense of Democracy killed the mid-term curse.

    In the weeks leading up to the midterm elections, almost all national polls pointed to the state of the economy and inflation being the most important issue facing the country. In October, 50% of registered voters saaid either the economy (28%) or inflation (22%) was the single most important issue for them, according to a ABC News/Ipsos poll. 

    But the data and results we’ve been getting from polls across the country points to a different pattern. Democrats have done incredibly well in states where access to abortion and threats to democracy were literally on the ballot. 

    It was a “regionalization of the midterms,” as the New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn described it in today’s episode of “The Daily.” 

    Let’s look at Michigan where a referendum for abortion rights — a constitutional amendment to guarantee a right to abortion — was on the ballot on Tuesday. Not only did Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) win reelection by about 11 points but also the Democratic candidates won every contested House race in the state. 

    In Pennsylvania, Trump-backed gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano — who ran on promoting conspiracy theories around fraud in the 2020 election — lost to his Democratic opponent by about 14 points. Similarly, in the Senate race, John Fetterman beat Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz to flip a crucial Senate seat blue. Democrats also swept almost all the competitive House districts. In a state where election deniers (and questioners) were on the ballot running for positions of power, voters mobilized for Democrats.

        1. That is going to take some doing. Doesn't Wisconsin allow citizen initiatives? That may be the only way to do it. The gerrymandered legislature isn't going to do it. The current US Supreme Court won't.

    2. Repeat after me…

      Simon Rosenberg

      @SimonWDC

      And of course the thing which drove the Dem intensity was GOP extremism on abortion.

      It was really important to Rs that they erase notion abortion could drive US politics. Ideological implications of this dire for them. It was pure gaslighting.

      And more from this excellent thread.

      One area we have to explore together is what a political disaster MAGA/Trump has been for Rs:
      – lost Presidency/Senate/House in 18/20
      – Disappointing 22
      – Huge R defections across US, fractured coalition
      – Attack on voting/early vote costly
      – Candidates couldn’t raise money

  8. Back to important Twitter news (Sorry it's a tweet).

    This was sent to all Twitter staff this morning by the legal leader on its privacy team. Pretty remarkable. 

    Basically saying that Elmo Mush doesn't care about users, activists, human rights. That he's the MAN, and can put rockets in space, and isn't afraid of the FTC.

    1. Yup, even Elon predicts a big smoking hole where Twitter used to be if he can't successfully switch to a subscription revenue model.  GLWT!

       “Without significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will not survive the upcoming economic downturn,” he wrote.

      1. “'Without significant subscription revenue, there is a good chance Twitter will not survive the upcoming economic downturn,' he wrote."

        Threat or promise?

        He shouldn't build up the hopes of some of us.

        1. Definitely a threat to Twitter employees, who are now forced to spend "at least 40 hours a week in the office".  Tough luck if the office is hours away, or doesn't have enough office space to hold all the staff.

          He apparently admires the Chinese government's attitude towards workers as being property of the state.

          But that's just the beginning of his troubles.

          On Wednesday, three top Twitter executives responsible for security, privacy and compliance also resigned, according to two people familiar with the matter and internal documents seen by The Times.

          Their resignations came a day ahead of a deadline for Twitter to submit a compliance report to the Federal Trade Commission, which is overseeing privacy practices at the company as part of a 2011 settlement.

          And in order to bring back advertisers, demonstrating his unique motivational techniques worthy of Genghis Khan…

          He has responded by threatening a “thermonuclear name & shame” of advertisers who choose to halt their spending.

          Definitely an opportunity for other media to expand into that market.

            1. Totally agree with you David!  The implosion picked up speed this afternoon.  Two more key executives walked out the door today.  Their account security and credibility have completely evaporated.

              Meanwhile, Twitter continues to battle the self-inflicted chaos of the new $8 per month “blue check” system. As we covered this morning, people are using the new blue check “don’t-call-it-verification” system to impersonate brands, celebrities, athletes, and more. Despite Musk calling it a “top priority” to battle these troll accounts, Twitter is losing the cat-and-mouse game.

              One of the more damming instances of a “fake-but-verified” account going viral emerged this afternoon when an account posing as pharmaceutical giant Eli Lily tweeted that the company would be making insulin free for everyone. The actual Eli Lily account responded around 45 minutes later, apologizing “to those who have been served a misleading message from a fake Lilly account.”

      2. What I've heard is there are like 1000-1500 in-person ballots left in Pueblo, and maybe 5000 mail ballots left from Pueblo. Not clear to me what's left in Pitkin. This reply is not at all fact-checked.

        1. Unfortunately, everything seems to be rumor and conjecture at this point. CNN was reporting that Pitkin was done (except for military) and that there were more Mesa County ballots (5,000) left to be counted than Pueblo ballots (2,000). At this point, it is a waiting game. If it stays this close, it may come down to how the military and cured ballots turn out. 

            1. And here's what I saw from Pueblo reporter Anna Lynn Winfrey a few hours ago:

              ~1800 in-person votes remain

              ~5200 mail-in ballots remain

              ~550 ballots in cure for signature verification

    1. That was damned funny, except the topic matter was deadly serious. Any thoughts on what could be done about horserace predictions like these driving public perception?

      1. Don't read Axios, Politico or TheHill. Access journalists who have a vested interest in access, which means Establishment Dems & Reps. 

        I got worried and stopped reading the 538 aggregation, but in the end they weren't very far off… within the margin of error. They'll probably downgrade the polling outfits that were pushing a Republican wave narrative.

        Rachel Bitecofer is heavily into what drives turnout. I agree with her enthusiasm is the most important thing, but that it is hard to measure objectively.

  13. Okay, quick question: how are these counties still in the process of counting election day ballots? Do they not have sufficient equipment? Because the process is pretty painless unless lots of your voters are making questionable marks.

    1. I spent today helping to process ballots — in an 8 hour day, I was half of a multi-partisan team that inspected validated ballots before they would go into a counting machine, getting through about 1,000 ballots.  Inspecting both sides of 3 cards and keeping exact count AND making certain the process can be audited to come up with the same results is not a rapid process.

      Denver County sent out a bit over 450,000 ballots, got just below 250,000 back — 100,000 on November 7 & 8.  As of this afternoon, Denver has just under 37,000 received still in process.  Uniformed and Overseas Citizen ballots continue to trickle in (and can, until next Wednesday). 

      If you have ways to make the process better, there are opportunities for you — county clerks and directors of elections would like added efficiencies and a more rapid count, but legality and precision are the top concerns

  15. The GQP: No, no, no! We're not fascists! We're not authoritarians! We don't support dictators! Really — you've got us all wrong!

    Me: Oh really?

    White nationalist Republican operative Nick Fuentes admits the election proves that "we are in the minority" and "that's why we need a dictatorship": "We need to take control of the media or take control of the government and force the people to believe what we believe." http://bit.ly/3fVcdam  (emphasis mine)

    https://twitter.com/rightwingwatch/status/1590763508043771905

    1. Pundit stochastic terrorism.

      Actually, the success of the Democrats in beating back the midterm curse is much more likely to be the cause of market enthusiasm

    2. Wheeeee!!  Roller coasters are so much fun!  A puff of wind could knock this market off by 500 points tomorrow.  Automated trading systems magnify the herd instinct that cause stampedes.  Almost as dangerous as SkyNet.

       

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