CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 02, 2012 08:03 PM UTC
55 Comments
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I think Obama will slowly pick up the pace here. Part is going to come from the cowboys who realize that he and his wife have a delightful dressage horse that has as much to do with our lives as they do, in other words, the good people of Colorado will see Romney for what he truly is, the south end of a north bound horse.
Every post below is Obama … barely, close, cliffhanger …
Where is your faith in the messiah from Chitown?
I had to pick Romney because Obama is running a shit campaign on a shit record. But that has nothing to do with the outcome. It will come down to three things here in CO: cash, the debate and turnout.
The $s – To date Obama has taken in over $222M and Romney just over $100M (per opensecrets). On top of Obama’s personal collection plate, the Obama Super PACs and Union funds should put him into the $1B category. The key here is will his negative ads work to affact turnout his way?
The Debate – a local debate will drive up awareness. This is a toss-up and Obama can’t let the debate be about his record.
The Turnout – Democrat voters are not energied, down to 37% from 64%. Can Obama turn these voters out? Who knows, but 8-12% ‘official’ unemployment ain’t helping…especially when the unemployment is highest in key Obama constituencies (youth, sex and racial minorities).
So at this point, I picked Romney and think it will be 51.3-48.7% (also rans being removed from the total).
If the spread is any wider in Romney’s favor then we’ll need a new wikpedia definition called the “Obama Effect”.
The ‘Obama Effect’ will be positioned close to the “History of Jimmy Carter” and has no relationship to the “Bradley Effect”.
They won’t understand them… All they see is Obama – Dem. Look at their top lines. It is a joke.
85% of the people on here actually believe Obama will win?? Really? You guys are out of touch man.
as when 50 previous wingnuts said the EXACT SAME THING hundreds of times in the past six years.
You guys really are the product of a hive mind, aren’t you?
I bet Romney is not sworn in Jan 2013.
when he called himself something else?
if this is them, Game On.
270
ooh..I know…you could log off in disgust and never come back to this site. It would serve all of us ignorant liberals right to lose the opportunity to benefit from your insight.
Go ahead..desert us…we’ll muddle through somehow.
Now your talkin.
The only people who ever claimed Obama was the liberal Messiah were you righties. Apparently since we think he’ll win, we haven’t lost hope. But your numbers including decimal points are adorable.
Record, you say? The last thing Romney wants to run on is his elected office record. He seems to hope nobody remembers he was once the Governor of lefty Mass where he promised to be to the left of Ted Kennedy on gay issues, supported a woman’s right to choose and passed Romneycare, complete with mandate.
The record of the rightie economic policy that has been in place for over a decade, has brought us to where we are today with a GOP congress blocking all change and that Romney promises us he’ll continue only in an even more extreme version? Yeah, there’s a winner.
Yep, we’ll definitely be talking record and as long as Romney refuses to release those tax returns (apparently forever), speculation on what he’s so determined to hide will continue. You know, like with Obama’s birth certificate except that Obama released his official raised seal document immediately and had nothing to hide.
It’s the only one not just acceptable but required for official purposes. Of course that never stopped you righties from continuing to speculate. But now you want everyone to stop speculating about what’s in Mitten’s tax returns because he’s released everything “required”? No one should know better than you righties that’s not how it works, right?
And thanks for the latest Razzie. Kind of made Arap look like an idiot (more of an idiot?) though, what with his claiming we were all putting words in your mouth. As if.
Obama will win. He’s a good finisher and while many of Obama’s swing state leads are small they are persistent in spite of bad economic news.
I believe we are in an era where not all of the old common wisdom necessarily applies. Much of it certainly didn’t apply in Obama’s historic first election which few would have predicted was possible less than two years before it happened.
There will be no let up in the fight against voter suppression and I believe as much money and man power as needed will be put into mitigating the effects of any shameful new rules that survive DOJ and court scrutiny.
Not counting chickens yet but if I had to bet, I’d bet on Obama. Much more discouraged about the kind of congress he probably will have to work with if he wins.
What part of “permanent” as in “I request a permanent mail-in ballot” doesn’t Scott Gessler get?
I think purging “inactive” voters from receiving mail-in ballots is going to affect many close races in Colorado, including the presidential race. I remember the 2008 campaign when we were all set to help with the long lines on election day. When we showed up at the polling places, no one was there — they had all voted by mail.
I hope the Dems can stop Gessler.
“Inactives” are high on our contact and recontact lists to get re-registered. Next are “swing” Dems and Unaffiliateds to swing them into the Obama camp. Personal conversations are the key, and that takes a lot of boots on the ground, of which there are more and more every week, but we could always use more. Thankfully, it’s fun and rewarding.
Anyone who disrespects teachers and firefighters has not earned enough credibility, in my book, to lick their boots. Shame on anyone who votes for that man.
Romney just isn’t likeable, and once the debates happen, I think it’s going to be a steady decline for his campaign.
I just made sure to double-check my election status, because I lived out of town during the last election and wasn’t able to get home to get my mail in ballot. Sure enough, after missing one (1) election, I was made “inactive” and would not receive a mail in ballot.
That issue has been addressed, but is there anyone here who knows if there’s something more I must do than just updating my status and permanently requesting a mail-in?
But check your status again just before October 9, to be sure. Next: Tell every Dem you know to check their status too. Then get that ballot in early to conserve time and volunteers. When the campaign knows you’ve already voted it also saves you getting a whomping bunch of desperate reminder calls just before November 6.
Obama will winn but it will be a cliffhanger
I am more and more confident of Obama’s campaign team, even though the economy counters some of that.
I have a feeling that the campaign team has been in a slow jog mode. That after the conventions, they will pull out the stops. You ain’t seen nothing yet. Undocumented workers in the horse stable, leaked tax returns, ad after ad of flip floppin’ Mitt.
next week jobless numbers come out again. They’ll likely be negative which will provide a Rmoney boost. A lot depends on the debate in Denver. I can not see Rmoney doing well against an extremely knowlegeable President Obama. He really didn’t even handle Rick Perry very well
But Obama will take the race, although he might lose the popular vote in the process. It’s going to be razor thin here, but a combination of a lack of voter registration efforts by OFA materializing and Gessler’s mail-in purges could seal the deal here.
it would only be because of the partisan Supreme Court’s ruling. No one actually likes him, with the exception of maybe robber/barons.
Every day more and more people are seeing Romney for what he is – a ventriloquist dummy. No heart, no brain and every day someone else has his hand in his back pulling the strings. One day it’s the Koch Brothers. The next day it’s Sheldon Aidelson. Even Dick Cheney got his turn to work the strings. I truly believe that not that many people are stupid enough to buy the snake oil he’s peddling.
“They” reelected GW.
Case closed.
Romney’s snake oil is going to have some powerful advertising behind it. And — who said it? Twain? — A lie will go around the world before the truth has time to get out of bed. And so far the Romney campaign has relied only on lies and the belief he should be handed the presidency without putting forth real policy for the American people to consider.
There are a lot of polls showing it close, and the agonizingly slow recovery will hurt Obama, but I cannot figure out how Romney can win Colorado or Nationally with his weakness with women and Hispanics. In a recent poll, Obama is ahead almost 60/40 with women in swing states, and 54/46 nationally. Obama has Hispanics 70/22. Can you win a national election while doing so poorly with those demographics? I do not think so.
Hispanics don’t vote. Not nearly enough to justify their importance as a demographic.
Most are very aware of social justice issues. Dems are on their side there. Some are guided by their religions (plural) on so-called social issues. Point: Republicons. Cubans are the only “natural” Republicans, but they are now three generations deep into American culture and young Cubans are right there with the rest of young Americans — for Obama. Now we have to get them registered and voting.
But, as you point out, not in proportion to their demographic strength. This election? Several things: Obama’s high profile appointments, his compassion toward the “Dream” kids and Castro’s upcoming keynote at the convention. We’ll see. In my neighborhood I see excitement building.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/201…
But that was 2010. Will 2012 prove to be any different? It would be great if the factors you were describing create a boost in enthusiasm, but I am going to remain of the belief that the Hispanic demographic is only as powerful as their ability to turn out at the polls.
I tend to think that what you’re describing will be outweighed by people pissed off that they’ve been out of work for 40 months.
I’d be curious what the turnout percentages were in 2010 for other key parts of the Obama coalition, too.
It’s common wisdom that 1/3 of the Obama voters stayed home in 2010 — I’ve seen convincing proof that it wasn’t so much a Republican or conservative surge at the polls as that those voters turned out at their usual rates while all the extra voters that gave Obama such a large margin in 2008 voted at much lower rates than usual.
In other words, I don’t think it was just Hispanic voters who underperformed in 2010. (Although your underlying point, that it’s hard to turn out Hispanic voters, does seem to be accepted as a truism.)
But according to that Pew survey, black voters actually increased in 2010 compared to 2006. Pew didn’t compare 2008 to 2010, so it would be interesting to see how they compare and if your hypothesis is accurate.
First: I agree that (in an election) any demographic is only as powerful as its ability to turn out at the polls. That’s sort of a given.
Second: I’d like to see a comparison of the African American (or gay, or female veterans, or white male farmers, small business owners, or whatever) percentage of our population, of our eligible voters and of actual voters, in order to compare how the Hispanic voter participation stacks up. I don’t have that. In other words, is Latino non-participation really out of whack with that of other demographics?
C: There are other psychological reactions to being out of work for “40 months” than being pissed off (assuming as you do) at Obama). Among working and previously working people there’s a lot of pissed offed-ness at the banks, Wall Street, and that crowd. The 99 percenters are not all unemployable anthropology students.
There’s also terror–at being subjected to a return to economic policies that more and more people are seeing as failed, as causing their current desperate straits–among middle class, working poor and unemployed folks. Of course, I live in an urban cocoon and may not sense the larger picture, but a fear of corporate, oligarchic takeover of the country is rising–especially among first and second generation Hispanics who know what that is was like back home.
There’s also disgust–at the absolutely amazing ham-handed assault by the Republicon Party (and their meek, hollow handmaiden candidate) on women’s rights, on religious diversity, on the economically disadvantaged, on truth and reason. And I’ve heard this disgust not only from partisan Dem politics junkies. It’s out there. And the longer Romney campaigns, the more it seems to coalesce against his candidacy.
And CCVXX: As you observe, this isn’t 2010.
I think Obama squeaks by with about a 1 – 1.5% margin. He wins, but it won’t be his fault.
Romney seems to think that the voters will simply toss Obama aside and that he will win by default. Not the way the real world actually operates.
Unless Romney shows an extraordinary package of attributes to bring people to him, they are just as likely to retain Obama.
that did kind of work out for him . . .
. . . in the Republican primaries.
the Republican primaries and “the real world”…can we get those two in the same basket? 🙂
Because Polsters are clearly representative of the CO electorate.
To steal from someone else
The vote on expected outcomes SHOULD be much wider than the actual vote margin. Frankly, it’s difficult to look at all the polls consistently showing Obama holding a small but very persistent lead, which sticks around despite all the twists and turns of the election season, and decide Romney will win. That would require a great deal of faith in a huge last-minute change. I imagine even Romney supporters would have to bet on Obama now if they had a lot of money on the line.
You, of course, are obviously correct. The question is NOT about margins but outcome.
INTRADE has Romney’s chances at less than 40% currently.
But it’s July. And the economy hasn’t been the focus. If things continue to plateau with job growth, then there are going to be some seriously tough days ahead for the Obama campaign.
Except when it’a pointless votes to repeal ACA and the gays and contraception and women’s health care including choice and downgrading the US credit rating and chikin. But aside from all that, it will be about the economy and jobs.
whatever AFP, ACGPS and whatever other IECs there are say it’s about in October.
What middle class swing voters think that the Republicans are trying to raise their taxes and haven’t done shit about jobs? Even if the Democrats hammer home the message, it’s going to be tough to get that across when it’s ingrained in people’s minds that the Rs cut taxes and will be better at job creation.
I still think Obama wins, but when he’s getting outspent by tens of millions of dollars…. it’s not going to be fun. For anyone.
which is mostly wrong, but I’ve never heard of anyone who says Republicans have worked hard to create jobs. I understand your extreme cynicism as someone who’s worked very hard to be Libertad’s joke account, but I’m not even sure you could get Rasmussen to give a poll result like that.
Just that the same people with the perception that they always lower taxes, have the perception that they’d be better than the Democrats. Maybe they think they’re equally shitty. Either way, same result. Good luck convincing people that Republicans are going to increase taxes and the debt, while providing zero job solutions.
Especially when the Koch Brothers and Adelson, along with the Romney campaign, will be backing up that thought process with 50,000 hours of tv ads.
Kinda weird that I get a lot of response to an obviously ridiculous comment meant to be funny, but the comment I made earlier about the effect of Gessler’s purging of inactive mail-in ballots gets almost nothing.
The election in Colorado may very well be determined by Gessler if he is successful.
That’s not funny.
The economy is so bad, it is pretty much the only important concern to so many people, and Obama has been piss-poor in handling it. So by that measure the alternative should have an easy win.
On the flip side, the Republicans have gone so far to the right and Romney has run an atrocious campaign that he comes across as worse than the guy who can’t improve the economy.
It’s Romney’s to lose. But he is presently doing exactly that. We’ll have to wait and see.
It’s always the incumbent’s to lose, all else being equal. And that includes the economy, given both it’s GOP origins and the GOP’s deliberate hindrance of the president on the recovery. Again, how many times have they allowed the jobs bill to come to a vote?
Of course, the president is going to have to drive that point home. I’m going to guess he waits until September to do that. And he can – 31 Obamacare repeal votes vs. 0 jobs bill votes (never mind all the War on Women votes) is pretty damn indicting.
Obama is Barack Hussein Obama and Romney is Willard Mitt Romney. This time it’s the candidates themselves, above all else.
Republicans want real bad to dump Obama.
Mitt can’t beat him.
I know, it’s his turn.
But in the privacy of the voting booth, Republicans just can’t bring themselves to vote for someone they think belongs to a religious cult.
and Tommy Tank to step in and save the day!
Tom, sir, come out of retirement, writing breathlessly scary diatribes over at the Colorado Beserker, your nation and (former) party needs you!
Who?
Elvis is alive and waiting to be the nominee when Dubya Mitt is forced to bow out.
You betcha, there’s a bunch that want to dump him. But there’s a bunch that are afraid to. And a bunch that won’t allow it.
As a Dem I’m pretty thrilled by the prospects for the upcoming Repub convention. As a spectator sport, that is.