Cook, Rothenberg: Miklosi Can Win

“This is Democrats’ best opportunity to pick up a seat in the entire Mountain West.”  – The Cook Political Report

Both Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports believe Joe Miklosi has a good chance of beating incumbent Mike Coffman in CD6. In today’s Cook Report, it states Colorado Democrats “scored a huge coup” from the state judge who redrew Congressional boundaries, and acknowledges that Coffman and Tipton’s continuous controversies are making those districts increasingly winnable for Democrats. The article also reminds readers that under the new lines drawn for CD6, Obama won by fify-four percent in 2008.

The Cook article continues on to review Coffman’s unpatriotic comment about the President at the Elbert County fundraiser, and his embarrassing string of foot-in-mouth moments trying to do damage control. In their words, Coffman “demonstrated that he hasn’t adjusted to life as a swing district candidate”.

The Cook Article goes on to say this:

Through mid-June, however, Miklosi has raised $641,000 and should be able to stockpile all of it for November since he’s facing only token opposition in the primary. This is Democrats’ best opportunity to pick up a seat in the entire Mountain West.

The Rothenberg Report
lists the Miklosi v. Coffman race as a “pure toss-up”. Earlier, they had written another article titled, “New Colorado Map Puts Coffman in Peril”.

Why do these reports matter? Both the Cook Report and the Rothenberg Political Report influence potential donors who hope to score political points by donating to the candidate with the best chance of winning. Until 2012, that man was always Mike Coffman in CD6. Look for Miklosi’s fundraising — and odds — to improve as big donors balance their bets on both candidates.  

About nancycronk

Nancy Cronk is a longtime community activist and women's leader living in Arapahoe County. Six months before the historic "red sweep" election of 2014, she was recruited to run as a "placeholder" in HD37, and managed to bring in 40K from 500 small donors, and 42% of the vote -- just one point lower than the previous candidate who ran in a presidential year.

17 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. TheDeminator says:

    You’re post is wrong… he only has 394,182.43 on hand vs 1,586,172.86 for Coffman.

    There is no way Joe wins this battle… I know you want him to win but he will not. He’s put the wrong fundraising team into place and has not attracted the national progressive attn he needs.

    It’s over…

    • nancycronk says:

      but I won’t.

      • TheDeminator says:

        My numbers are right out of the FEC reports… . I would welcome you to say something…  

        • nancycronk says:

          Just found your comment very interesting, given who you are. I have no intention of outing you here. Just amused.

          • TheDeminator says:

            I am Andy Szekeres… everyone knows that.  It’s great you can judge what I have done… yet you are rarely listed on campaign finance reports because no one employs you on their races.

            PS… I have almost 40 million raised to back up what I’ve done.  Like it or not…

            • nancycronk says:

              I did not know you were “out as a blogger”.

              I have never applied for a fundraising job on a political campaign, and would never want one. I did canvassing for PIRG-IM in college and it was awful (trying to convince laid-off Detroiters to donate to a consumer group who made a point to trash American cars was like stacking greased marbles with boxing gloves on).

              I’ve been a political recruiter, a field  organizer and a field manager before, and was very successful at all of them. Loved the work, but have not been interested in field hours for years, since I had a family. So, if my name is wasn’t ever on a finance report, I don’t care in the slightest. Truly never my goal.

              I am not questioning your expertise, Andy. You may remember I praised your work in Maine quite publicly, and I have said positive things here about your skills in finance. I just thought your dig against Milosi’s campaign — that they hired the wrong finance team sounded … well…. I guess what you are saying is they should have hired you instead?

              One question — if you really are a committed Dem, and your blogger name implies you are, why not advise their campaign team as an experienced volunteer?

              • nancycronk says:

                You and I have our history, and I really don’t think it’s in anyone’s best interest to make things so personal. Let’s stay focused on the article, shall we?

                Joe’s campaign finance director works his ass off. The problem is this: Coffman had CD6 so tightly sewn-up last time, and CD6 was synynomous with the GOP under Tancredo, that no one even gave Joe a chance until two weeks ago. Donations and volunteers were abysmally slow to warm up until recently — not because of Joe, but because of the old reputation of the district. When Coffman made his mammoth gaffe a few weeks back, people started to see him as fallible. Today, Joe’s office is crawling with volunteers.  

                I think the Cook Report and the Rothenberg Report can help a ton. You and I both know the big donors are out of state, and these ratings can only help.  

          • sxp151 says:

            Deminator is apparently happy to out himself here, but if he hadn’t been, this comment would sound like a rather intimidating threat.

            I remember when you used to post here anonymously, and I remember when some jackass outed you. I imagine it was not pleasant. In the end you’re still posting, and that’s great, but there are lots of people who cannot afford to be public. They post anonymously, or they can’t post at all. I assume you value the contributions of at least some of us who don’t reveal our names and occupations. We all have our own reasons.

            People keep writing that you are trying to find out identities of commenters here. I would think, as someone who has been involuntarily outed, you would be especially sensitive to it. Unfortunately it seems to have had the opposite effect. I respect your posts and your opinions, and I would like to ask respectfully that you refrain from investigating or threatening or even hinting at people’s secret identities. Thanks.

  2. TheDeminator says:

    Lets also look at the 48 hour reports filed since the 13th. Coffman –  6000.00 he got on the 13th, the  25250.00 he got on the 14th, the 17000.00 he got on the 18th, the 1500.00 he got on the 19th and the 5500.00 he got on the 21st…

    Let’s look at Joe’s 48 hour report.  Oh there is only one in that time period for 2000.00 on the 20th.  

    • TheDeminator says:

      I know you struggle with simple finance report look up

      Step 1 –

      Step 2 – Click on Campaign Finance Disclosure Portal

      Step 3 – Searchable systems –

      Step 4 – electronically filed reports

      Step 5 –… – Type the name of the committee into the box and hit search.

      You will note Miklosi is getting killed when it comes to fundrasing

      Joe Miklosi for Congress – Cycle-To-Date  $641,653.81  Cash on hand 394,182.43. plus 2,000 since the last filing – Campaign spent to date – $246,982.89

      Coffman for Congress – Cycle-To-Date $1,521,730.27 Cash on hand 1,586,172.86 ( note there is money carried over from last cycle.  plus $55,250 since the last filing  – Campaign spent to date – $352,652.60

      • nancycronk says:

        and saying/doing stupid things, you don’t think the corporate dollars would stop coming in at that rate? I agree the $ trend was not looking good for Joe, but a lot can happen in five months.

  3. RedGreen says:

    Um … if Cook is really that out of touch with what’s going on in the 6th, I’m not sure why you’re giving him such credence. It’s true the numbers don’t look so bad for Miklosi from thousands of miles away, but I would hope Polsters take these reports for what they are: surface-level quick takes based on the numbers from thousands of miles away. For what that’s worth.

    • sxp151 says:

      but Cook and Rothenberg are pretty well-known prognosticators. That doesn’t mean they’re right or even that their predictions are consistently accurate, but having them mention your race is significant. Races can certainly get influenced by money from “thousands of miles away,” and the first step to raising such money is to convince the big boys that you’re running a real race.

      And besides, you’re overstating it. It’s barely even two thousand miles away, and two isn’t that big. It’s hardly more than one.

  4. Politico1 says:

    It’s way early. Also people who live in FEC reports probably can be a little myopic. Meg Whitman outspent Jerry Brown 5-1 in California in that race. Fundraising’s not everything. Way too early to write off Miklosi until we see how fundraising continues and begin to get some real polling.

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