12 thoughts on “Tuesday Open Thread”

1. Slouching toward Utopia, by Brad DeLong.

   A history of the "long 20th Century" from 1870 – 2010.

   • In 1870 technological progress achieves critical mass

   • Thereafter human technological prowess doubles every generation

   • That means a truly human world—one that solves the problem of baking a sufficiently large economic pie, after which the problems of slicing and tasting it—equitably distributing and properly utilizing our wealth—should be easy to deal with

   • Technological advance, however, is Schumpeterian creative destruction

   • Immense wealth creation, coupled with the destruction of industries, occupations, livelihoods, and communities. Every generation. And then it happens again.

   • The forces-of-production underlying hardware is being replaced every generation.

   • Thus the economic-sociological software—the rough running code of society—needs to be rewritten on the fly every generation.

   • Cobbled-together so that it will not crash, for whatever worked well a generation ago will not work well, or not work at all, today.

   • This rewriting takes place in tension between von Hayek and Polanyi

   • Von Hayek: the market can give us wealth but not fairness or justice. But reaching for fairness and justice will destroy the wealth-creation and put us on the Road to Serfdom: “the market giveth, the market taketh away: blessed be the name of the market” is the best we can do.

   • Polanyi: the market says the only rights that matter are property rights, but people think they have and demand other rights: comfortable communities, economic stability, the proper allocation of incomes to the deserving. Tell people the only real rights are property rights and they will revolt, and the system will crash.

   • Polanyi: government must recognize and accomodate the fact that “the market was made for man, not man for the market”.

   • It is this unresolvable tension in how to rewrite the software economic-sociological code every generation on the fly that has caused the problems of slicing and tasting the economic pie—of equitably distributing it so that everyone has enough, and of using our technological powers to enable us all to live our lives wisely and well—have flummoxed and continue to flummox us.

   It is this process that runs history from 1870-2010.

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   1. PH – Does DeLong figure in the problem of overpopulation?

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      1. Actually, Malthusian pressure is at the core of his story. Up until 1870 the human population ALWAYS raced up to the limit of agricultural productive capacity. This is measured in archeology by monitoring human height, which is an indicator of malnutrition.

         In 1870 "suddenly" human technological progress surged far and above population growth and Malthusian limits were eliminated. Obviously climate change and agricultural destruction could still drive local and regional disasters, but human society as a whole has ample productive capacity to feed, clothe, provide iPhones to every one on earth… aside from mal-distribution due to power differentials between rich and poor.

         This prosperity, plus birth control, abortion freedom and women throwing off patriarchic religious structures have given women (and society) the freedom from Malthus. The survival of previous societies provided women no choice, they had no choice but to strive for 7 children in order to get 2 surviving male heirs in order to support them in adult-hood. 

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         1. Geez, PH. The more people in the world, the more energy is required to power them, from ag production to things like iPhones.

            Too many people comprise the elephant in the room, cheerfully ignored by idealists of all stripes.

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2. How long until we get a U.S. v. Trump criminal case pending in Federal Court?  I'm guessing 6 mos. & the DC Court of Appeals will hear the case.  They are going for the jugular as we speak.  Time will tell if they hit it and if The Supremes uphold any conviction. 

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   1. Meh. #BangBang has a plan for Fat Donnie’s problems: – the clouds will part and, well, we know how this ends (hint: with a black God at the Pearly Gates). 
       

      

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3. When will Colorado Republicans Represent:

   From HC-R

   Today, more than 150 prominent Michigan Republicans—including a former head of the Michigan Republican Party—backed Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer for reelection. The current Michigan Republican Party has backed far-right candidates for governor, secretary of state, and attorney general and has lined up behind Trump, who made attacking Whitmer a feature of his 2020 campaign. Those Republicans jumping behind the Democratic governor note that she has signed more than 900 bipartisan bills into law and has focused on issues that are good for everyone, regardless of party. 

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4. fivethirtyeight.com predicts that there is a 27% chance that Democrats will win both chambers in the upcoming mid-terms.  If this happens (thought and prayers), will the Republicans turn on Trump or McCarthy or McConnell?

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   1. No.

      The Republican Party is a failed state and Trump is it's overlord. Don't look to the Republican Party to be reformed.

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   2. EW, I’m pretty sure you meant FiveThirtyEight. At first, I wondered if Nate Silver had competition. 

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      1. Lol. Fixed. 

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5. Time stamp actually 10:00PM
   I.C.Y.M.I.:This was a huge story on the political cable news shows this evening. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/us/politics/david-enrich-trump-gop.html

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