June 05, 2012 10:53 PM UTC

Wisconsin Recall Election Discussion Thread

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE #2: So much for that–major networks call Wisconsin gubernatorial recall for Scott Walker, now leading by a very comfortable margin with 55% of precincts reporting.

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UPDATE 7:10PM MDT: With the polls closed in Wisconsin, exit polling indicates an extremely close race–closer than recent predictions of a 3-5 point Scott Walker victory.

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All eyes on Madison (for now), as the Christian Science Monitor reports:

The national news media are riveted by the contest, and that will magnify the result. A loss for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democratic challenger, will be seen as a blow to Mr. Obama and his prospects for November. After all, Wisconsin is a battleground state. A win for Mayor Barrett, the underdog, will be seen as a significant boost to Obama, on the heels of bad economic news.

But the impact will fade fast, political observers say.

“It’s June,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville. “Yes, a victory by Walker will give Republicans a burst of energy, but will it last five months? No way.”

Still, there will be one lasting implication: A Walker victory will force the Obama campaign to expend resources – time, money, volunteer effort – that it might otherwise not have had to. And those are resources that will be taken from campaign efforts in other states.

Obama won Wisconsin big in 2008 – by 14 percentage points. As of now, outside observers see Wisconsin as leaning Democratic, so while it’s not a sure thing for Obama, it’s a state he should win this November.

A poll follows–answer before Wisconsin’s polls close for full credit.

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