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August 03, 2022 07:00 AM UTC

Wednesday Open Thread

  • 42 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“I much prefer the sharpest criticism of a single intelligent man to the thoughtless approval of the masses.”

–Johannes Kepler

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42 thoughts on “Wednesday Open Thread”

  1. Well, the Hitler wing of the Republican Party swept Arizona.  Gibbs eked by in Michigan.  Democrats are smirking that they will now win these seats.

    We shall see.

    1. Indeed. I remember how happy many of us were in 2016 when the GOP failed to nominate Mark Rubio or Jeb Bush and instead went with the most unelectable guy in the race. We saw how that turned out.

      1. Alternate history is a hard argument to make.

        Trump elected was a disaster.  But among alternatives, would you have preferred Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio?  My speculation, following Bitecofer's idea of negative partisanship, is that all of them would have beaten Clinton by AT LEAST as much as Trump. 

        And then we would have had an experienced, disciplined, and less-divisive Republican running an Administration (rather than Trump's amateur hour Sad!-ministration).  We likely would not have had some of the Constitutional assaults.  No doubt, there would have been less gratuitous vehemence and violence.  But there still would have been tax cuts, judicial nominations and confirmations, and agency deregulations. We likely would NOT have had the full 2018 and 2020 election backlashes.  There probably would not have been 2 Georgia Democratic Senators in 2021, making Mitch the majority leader right now.

        Hard to calculate the full plus and minus calculation of unelectable guy.

        1. But among alternatives, would you have preferred Cruz, Kasich, or Rubio? 

          Easy answer: John Kasich. 

          As for the dubious benefit of having an incompetent Trump (as opposed to a competent Kasich), we would not have had the norm-bending crap that we have had for the past 6 years including but not limited to: Trump metaphorically fellating Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, or any of the other thugs with whom he was so enamored.

          We probably would not have had children in cages if only because Kasich – while a conservative Republican – was basically a decent human being. (Certainly, more so than Trump.)

          We probably wouldn’t have had as many dead as quickly as there was under Trump from COVID-19. Kasich would probably have listened to Anthony Fauci and followed the science instead of talking about bleach and light bulbs.

          Kasich may have won a second term which might have been unfortunate but survivable. But even if he lost, he would probably have done so gracefully and not literally triggered a riot over his loss.

          There is no silver lining behind Trump’s 2016 win. By the way, if Kasich had won in 2016, the GOP would probably still have lost the House in 2018 because in all but 2 election cycles since 1930, the president’s party loses seats in the House.

          1. I would have preferred Kasich, too. He's a Republican, but he's a basically decent guy who would have acted out of principled conviction, not spite and malice.  

          2. I agree. And I think Rubio would also have not threatened our democracy in any way. Rubio might have even been better because I don't think he's all that smart whereas Kasich is clearly very smart.

        2. Alternate history is difficult, but I would have taken any of the Republican alternatives you mentioned to the incompetence of Trump. Hundreds of thousands of lives would have been saved from the pandemic. The major downside is that almost any competent Republican would have won reelection and we would have been stuck with 8 years of Republican control of the White House. But we will never know.

      2. that's astounding …

        I guess it is true that one gets what one pays for … and Alex Jones has had a host of expensive attorneys quit on him or get fired.

      3. What is GOP kingmaker Tom Ready thinking as his conspiracist leader, Alex Jones, goes down in flames?

        Regret for lying about the Sandy Hook massacre himself? Probably not. Tom Ready is probably pondering if there’s a way to make money or political capital from Jones’ ignominious defeat. 

         

      4. For real. The Jones case is a slow-motion train wreck for Jones and his lolyers, and it’s getting worse. I’m having a hard time looking away. It’s not every day an evidentiary objection prompts a judge to say, “There’s a million things you could object to, and they’re all sustained.”

        The Litigation Disaster Tourism industry is booming these days.

  2. Kansas ….   Kansas, with a 14% win for Trump in 2020.

    In an off-cycle PRIMARY election in 2022, one without many competitive Democratic races AND one where unaffiliated voters cannot vote for candidates [combined vote for the semi-serious US Senate primaries:  254,953 for Dems, 463,592 for Reps — 718.545 overall in the elections]

    Voting on ambiguous, somewhat confusing language that concealed what would actually happen.  More spending from the "YES" campaign.  Many energized churches pushing to get voters to go vote for "YES".  And the result:

    Precincts reporting: 100% Election results are unofficial until certified. These results were last updated on August 3, 2022 at 7:44:23 AM Eastern Time.

    Result…..Votes……….Percentage

    …..Yes…….374,611…..41.22%

    Defeated No  ….534,134……58.78%

    Totals……908,745 ….100%

    ~190,000 who are not Republicans or Democrats come out to vote.on the amendment

    Early analysis says ~20%-25% of REPUBLICANS voted no on the amendment.

  3. I love this story – students with a public education taking on the Salem Witch Trials (it’s what happens when there’s no separation of Church and State). We’ve all had a teacher like this. 
     

    Last Conviction in Salem Witch Trials Is Cleared 329 Years Later

    Elizabeth Johnson Jr., the last person who was not cleared in the Salem witch trials, has officially been exonerated 329 years after her conviction for witchcraft. It was the result of an effort led by an eighth-grade civics teacher and her students.

      1. Watch it, V. That woman is not a witch. She's much too blithely evil and obviously doesn't believe in the three-fold return of her deeds. 

        2. Still waiting for that proudly Pagan candidate of my dreams. They could get elected in a blue district.

          However, identity politics can be a real bitch: I was happy that proudly bisexual Synema was elected until she started, you know, voting.

    1. I'm surprised vegbeterians would ever even go there. Now, when they start adhering to anti-discrimination laws, I'll believe they've changed

    1. Daily Kos Elections provides a bit of context:

      Wednesday, Aug 3, 2022 · 11:33:53 AM MDT · Jeff Singer

      CO-07: The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has publicized a survey from Meeting Street Insights that gives Democratic state Sen. Brittany Pettersen just a 44-42 edge over the Republican nominee, former oil and gas executive Erik Aadland. Biden carried this seat in the western Denver suburbs 56-42, but Republicans are hoping that Rep. Ed Perlmutter’s retirement will give them a bigger opening. This is the first poll that’s been released of this contest.

      And yet …

      Cook Political Report just (August 3, 2022 report) pushed CO-7 from "lean" to "likely" Democrat. "Likely : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged"

      LIKELY DEMOCRATIC – CO-07 Open

      Sabato's Crystal Ball / https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ – updated July 28,2022, still sees CO-7 as "Leans Democrat."

       

      1. When considering Biden’s “disapproval numbers”, pollsters should be consudering how many are from lefties who are disappointed Biden hasn’t done more (like pushing through voting rights act). Yes, Sinemanch blocked lots of good law, but Biden could have supported ending the filibuster much earlier.

        The point is that peoplewho would never vote for a Republican “disapprove” of Biden; have any of these polls gotten granular about their ( our) views?

        1. I’ve not seen any polls that try to go beyond the established approve/disapprove language. There are a few that use the approve/disapprove dichotomy on specific topics.

          Today’s entry on Born to Run the Numbers provides a bit of explanation

          [Biden’s] approval rating within [his]own party has dropped from roughly 90% to 75%, and some polls say that three-quarters of them want someone else heading the ticket in 2024. 

          How can this be?  There are really two answers, one for everyone, and a different one for the Democrats.

          The first answer is a single word:  inflation….

          The second answer involves why Biden’s approval rate is dropping among Democrats.  Biden is facing a backlash from the left.  And it is all about expectations….

          Biden is getting little credit for this legislative record, nor for his COVID vaccination distribution program, the actual accomplishment of exiting Afghanistan, the near perfect handling of the Ukraine invasion, the near-full employment status of the economy and yes, even the sudden drop in gas prices over the past month.  Biden also just undercut one of the major critiques of his Afghan exit – that it would strengthen terrorist activity without any “on the ground” intelligence to track them – with the remarkable “over the horizon” killing of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.  Yes, we are safer now under Joe Biden’s leadership.

          Despite all this, the majority of Democrats want Biden’s head.

        1. Jeff Singer is pretty good, and in this case he shows his references. Are you disagreeing with Singer or with the source? Or is it accusation by association?

          I don't mind opinionated columnists; that's much better than pretend objectivity!

           

            1. “known by the company they keep” — Which is why I wanted to provide a bit a sense of what company was being kept by the pollsters and their sponsors.

              And just for fun — Sabato & the Institute he fronts is apparently considered a fair minded academic group that tends a bit Republican, Cook & his team is a political pro seen as close to middle of the road as anyone. 

        2. For some topics, Daily Kos is actually a great source of news and analysis. Their election coverage is top-notch; Nate Silver of 538 got a start there. (Ukraine war coverage on the front page and by a couple of regular diarists is also leaps and bounds above most media coverage.)

    2. I'll at least question whether CD-8 is a waste of money. Doing a drive-by on this now, but will be following the race and hoping Dr. C can run a good campaign.

      1. CD-8 is not a complete waste because the numbers are not bad. In anything but a GOP wave election, CD-8 will probably default to the Dems.

        My prediction:  Kirkmeyer wins narrowly in November (like Both Ways Bob won the new and evenly divided CD-7 in 2002), eventually vacates it at which point it turned Dem and never looks back.

  6. Alex F-ing Jones is getting Info-warred on the stand. Read this entire Twitter Thread from Marcy-Emptywheel:

    Plaintiff's lawyer pulls out Jones texts that weren't turned over in discovery…

    Jones' coughing has come back.

    "Can I have you look in bottom corner. Is that your phone number?"

    Jones goes on attack: "You did get my text messages."

    "12 days ago, your attorneys sent your entire cell phone. As of two days ago, it fell free and clear into my possession. That's how I know you lied to me."

    Plaintiff's lawyer: In discovery you were asked if you had Sandy Hook messages on your phone and you said no, correct? You know what perjury is? Please remember you can assert Fifth Amendment.

    Jones keeps trying to qualify his past answer to apply only to Infowars. 

    Sandy Hook team has other emails. 

    "We asked for all emails. You told us you don't use email."

    Mr. Jones, is that your email address? Is that you writing an email? 

    [pause pause pause pause]

    Yes.

    Plaintiff's lawyer: You agree those emails we asked for, those exist? You agree or not?

    Jones: That is my personal email.

    Plaintiff's lawyer: You understand that when your attorneys sent me your phone, they didn't mean to do that.

    Judge: Discovery is a process that concludes before trial. We don't have evidence abt it but what we do know is that it was not properly turned over when it should have.
     

    1. And the Texas Judge had ALREADY admonished the attorney for Jones, Jones, and a colleague of Jones for not following "The Rule."

      This trial is too incredibly bad to be an example in law schools — but the lawyers writing snark on the net have been having a field day.

  7. From Rachel Bitecofer's Twitter Feed:

    Rachel Bitecofer
    GOP f'd around and found out

    Rex Chapman🏇🏼
    70% of Kansans who registered to vote after 6/24 (Dobbs decision) were women. Lmao, GOP.
     

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