“War on Women” Narrative is Killing the GOP

Fascinating new poll numbers, as our friends at “The Fix report:

New poll data from the Pew Research Center suggests that not only does President Obama enjoy a clear edge over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among women but that younger women favor the incumbent overwhelmingly, a data point that suggests a potential long term problem for the GOP.

Obama leads Romney among all women by a 53 percent to 40 percent margin, which, interestingly, is down from the 20 point edge that he enjoyed in a March Pew poll.

But dig into the numbers – big thanks to Pew for providing so much subgroup data – and you begin to see that the gender gap could be widening and as permanent as anything ever is in politics. [Pols emphasis]

The number that really stands out is that among women between the ages of 18-29, Obama is beating Romney by 45 points. Yes, 45. While Obama is leading Romney among all 18-29 years old by 28 points (61 percent to 33 percent), the fact he is down by such a vast margin among young women has to set off red flags in Republican world.

Democrats have done an excellent job at framing Republican attacks on contraception, equal pay and a host of other issues as part of a broader “War on Women” narrative, and it’s apparently working. Republicans can complain about the “spin” if they like, but nobody is forcing them to make stupid policy decisions that look really bad when framed through the women’s rights lens. As “The Fix” points out, these numbers are so stunning that Republicans should be worried about beyond just the effect on 2012:

What’s clear from a broader historical perspective is that Republicans are teetering dangerously close to the brink when it comes to their losing margins among women.  Not since 1988 has a Republican presidential candidate won the women’s vote (And George H.W. Bush won women by only a single point.)


34 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Sir RobinSir Robin says:

    The Republican Party has been on a self destructive course for many, many years.

    They’re so dumb, they piss of WOMEN!


    I hope they’re antics end up destroying them. No loss, to my way of thinking.

    Maybe then, real Republicans can return, instead of the brain stem Republicans we’ve seen over the last 10-20 years.

  2. Ed Rollins says:

    Do you not read the articles you cite? Romney went from down 20 to down 12 among women since the last poll. That’s not a negative direction for those playing at home.

    What you didn’t mention (SELECTIVE COVERAGE ALERT) is the Gallup daily tracking poll that has Romney over Obama 48-43 today.

    But I wouldn’t expect that to be published here. Wouldn’t fit your goal of shilling Democrats.

    • Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

      That a Washington Post-ABC News story shows Romney to be the least popular Presidential nominee since 1984.

      Of the three polls, we mentioned the one in the post above because…it was just the most interesting.

      But if it makes you feel better, you can tell your friends that it’s because George Soros made us do it.

    • DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

      I think that switch from –20 to –12 is the war on women stories have dropped off the front page. But what that means is if come election day, if the war on women is back on the front page, Romney is in deep deep deep doo-doo. But if it’s not front-page, he’s merely in deep doo-doo.

      Because it’s not going to get better than –12 and that’s a hard number to make up with the angry old white male vote. I don’t think Romney can lie his way to better than –12.

      • bud says:

        has been keeping up with their “Let’s Screw Over Women” campaign, just because they really think women are second class or maybe not really human.

      • thiokuutoo says:

        Most state legislatures of the War On Women states are now looking at the general election and not in session.

        However, we still have the clowns in Congress attacking women, minorities, and people with any color in their skin. You can bet at least one of them will float out an attack that is designed to hurt women in the coming weeks. They cannot help themselves.  

        • The realistThe realist says:

          The barrage of anti-women legislation and talking-head-blather may have slowed for a bit, but that’s only because the Republican talking points writers have come unglued in back rooms across the country, and are telling their puppets to back off.  

          But they cannot help themselves – they genuinely believe women must be controlled, put in their place – they genuinely believe the rich have more rights than the poor – they genuinely believe they have the right and responsibility to suppress the progressive vote – and on and on.

    • AristotleAristotle says:

      I read the article, and you know what? 53-40=13, not 12. Doesn’t really change your point, but citing non-facts in place of facts still erodes credibility. Just looking out for you bud.

      • BlueCat says:

        Ed is comparing the highest poll number of one period to the lowest of another, out of a variety of polls over the same period.

        A CNN poll during the same period as the one with  Ed’s 12%,  actually 13%, figure had it at 16%. During the time  when one poll was showing  20%, others were showing 18% or a little less.  If you throw out the outlying high from that week and the outlying low from the latest, you get a pretty consistent  figure in the neighborhood of 16%  and a drop close to the margin of error instead of Ed’s wishful thinking dramatic drop.

        In any case, Romney has to do better with women than McCain did in order to win. McCain’s deficit with women was 13%.  So far, no polling is coming up with a figure significantly lower than that.  So while things can certainly change and nobody is saying an Obama victory is a sure thing,  Ed’s definitely looking  through rosy red colored glasses at this juncture vis a vis the GOP deficit with women.

    • nancycronknancycronk says:

      I don’t need studies to know this is true. I’ve been planning the April 28th We Are Women March in Denver, and I can tell you, there are a heck of a lot of women who are fed up, and they’re not just Democrats. One of our most motivated planners is a Republican woman from Lone Tree who shoots guns for fun, has always voted Republican. and is mad as Hell at her (now former) party. You don’t need a study if you step away from your computer and go talk to independent women.

      The dumbest thing the GOP can do is let Rush Limbaugh have his job, because sooner or later, he is going to mouth off again, and we get all the chips in this round. (And I know, Rush Limbaugh is not the GOP. And Fox News is not GOP-TV. Tell it to the hand.)

      Looking forward to it.

      • Gilpin Guy says:

        My wife has gone from votes on election day after briefly studying the voting guide before going into the voting booth to watching MSNBC almost every night and going to Democratic Party meetings and volunteering her time.  I don’t believe she is an isolated case.  Republicans have overplayed their “Leave it to Beaver dad” macho man role and the progressive women I am in contact with see these times as a social justice moment where they have to reclaim their rights from a bunch of old white assholes.  They are furious about these attempts to enslave them again and they are going to hit back hard.

        Ed and the A-BOT can pooh pooh these findings but the birdy is telling them that they are on the wrong side of history trying to keep women down as second class citizens.

        • bud says:

          women are going to fight back against incredibly stupid old white assholes in their attempt to control women’s lives. The 1950s are going to stay in the past where they belong.  GOP very much on the wrong side of history on this one.

    • Santorum has dropped out of the race.  “Post” primary bump followed.

  3. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    Voter turnout

    How many of those 18-29 single women will vote on 11/6? >50%=Obama win.  Less, go figure.

  4. Half Glass FullHalf Glass Full says:

    What do you mean “framing”? It IS a war on women!

    And Romney’s response is to try to emphasize the “war on women” concept by trying to link Obama to a statement some totally unconnected wonk made about stay-at-home moms – only to be outed as having made the same remark himself a few months ago.

    It’s as stupid as Romney’s camp trying to fight the Seamus dog torture story by bringing up the story of Obama being fed dog meat by his dad when he was a pre-teen. As if Obama made that conscious choice. It just makes them look stupid – and it validates the original criticism against Romney.

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