“A blunder at the right moment is better than cleverness at the wrong time.”
–Carolyn Wells
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Substitute for Barnes' recognitions………….
"I had too much to dream last night, too much to dream. I'm not ready to face the light. I had too much to dream last night."
Music by the Electric Prunes.
Heather Cox-Richardson. (But I'm sure that ya'll already subscribe.)
Very interesting commentary from Kamil Galeev on Moscow vs the Rest of Russia.
But really, the article is about why Russia hasn't been able to declare a total war.
Caveat:
And Consequences:
Yes, interesting. Though I'm no expert on Russia, I suspect it would take even more than mass mobilization for the people to revolt.
Maybe it’s 1917 all over again. Very strong parallels.
Read the whole article, because they add some historical insights as well. Their point is that the Russian “people” are disenfranchised and have no agency. However, 500,000 country bumpkins conscripted into fighting in Ukraine would have both guns & motive, and therefore agency.
Not that it would happen, but that it would set up the conditions for it to happen.
Galeev has had some other interesting articles. Here they talk about the cosmopolitan intellectuals of Moscow (including Navotny) vs provincial Russia. There are ethnic divisions, but there are also regional divisions. Galeev believes that regional interests, political and economic, provide agency to the people in the regions and therefore the centrifugal force to break Russia up.
May I point out an overlooked dynamic here?
The success of the Ukranians in their struggle with Putins’ army, may add fuel to the fire that burns within our gun nut community who envision a citizen army willing to overthrow the evil Democrats and ” take” the government with their AR-15s. Um…no.
Please take note guys. These people are fighting an invading foreign army. Not fighting their own government. And should they decide to square off with Uncle Sams’ army, where are the going to get the Javelins and Stingers, without which, this is a different story?
Maybe it is a non-issue, but I thought it worth mentioning.
"Very strong parallels."
Not really.
The casualty rate from the
Special Military Operationwar in Ukraine are nothing compared to the Russian casualties during World War I.And the economic turmoil caused by the nearly world-wide sanctions imposed on Russia are nothing compared to the lack of food and fuel which the Russian people were experiencing in 1917.
Finally, there was serious concern that the Imperial family was compromised with German sympathizers in 1917 since the Czarina was German. Putin has been playing the patriotism card to the hilt and will reach a crescendo on May 9.
You make good points. Read the article, so you can address Galeev's arguments rather than my attempts to summarize them.
My Romanian part of the family (close to the Ukranian border) is pretty concerned about May 9 Victory Day. FWIW they think some sort of large-scale attack will happen during or right after the Russian saber rattling and chest thumping. Not just a formal declaration of war. We will see.
A couple of Russian historians have offered opinions based on previous "revolts" of the Russian people. One of the recurrent elements I found fascinating: the existing leader becoming unwilling to call on the security forces (police or military) because he knows those forces have power (weapons) and fears the forces would join in the revolt.
Various Western intelligence agencies ramping up their announcements to heighten speculation of inside military opposition (leaks, unofficial announcements of deaths & injuries among Russian officers), security institutions with conflicts & breakdowns, oligarchs publicly criticizing, and so on…. here's hoping they are able to stimulate Putin's paranoia.
Don't count on a revolt in Russia fixing anything. The country is ruled by autocrats, whether czars, Soviet premiers or Russian presidents. If one is deposed, another autocrat takes over. Russians have no history of anything else.
Galeev’s article doesn’t predict, but they analyze the conditionals. I was extremely more informed after reading the whole thing.
I woke up thinking about how the Supreme Court declared it an unconstitutional restriction of freedom of speech to have a 35 foot limit to keep protestors from harassing women at abortion clinics.
Also the Proud Boys are trying to instigate violent incidents in protest marches by women's rights and LGBTQ supporters.
Who could have guessed! Lucy, I mean Senator Susan Collins, is opposed to the right to an abortion.
Always faithful Susan Collins. A pacifist between wars and a vegetarian between meals, to use Scott Nearing's searing putdown.
Bad news – Inflation is likely to skyrocket.
Yes! It's terrible. Time to take away the punch bowl before all those minimum wage workers get drunk on their newfound wealth.
The US economy added 428,000 new jobs. Unemployment at 3.6%. It's horrible. Now PP will have to pay even higher wages to attract truck drivers to a difficult, shitty job.
The only thing to do is to jack interest rates up to 10 of 15% and cause a recession to get unemployment back up to 10% so that employers don't have to raise wages.
Obviously sarcasm/irony, but the economy works in complex ways.
You would certainly expect some things to become more expensive when the wages of the lower-paid workers increase. If you raised taxes on the wealthy and made the stock market crater, then possible the wealthy would stop spending on second homes.
I think a big part of the problem is that so much of the economy is monopolies and they used this as a great excuse to jack up prices.
And then yes, we do have wages increasing (good) causing price increases (bad) which then …
Also, I was being semi-sarcastic about Jim Cramer usually being very wrong.
"…we do have wages increasing (good)
causingbeing used as an excuse for price increases (bad)"TFIFY
This is delicious to watch …
Pompeo holds briefing to raise concerns over Trump-backed Senate candidate in Pennsylvania | The Hill
What the hell did Mehmet Oz, MD expect to happen when he decided to run for elected office in the Party of Xenophobia?
No trigger locks on guns but warning labels on reruns of Modern Family …..
GOP senators call on TV ratings board to help parents shield kids from LGBTQ characters | The Hill
A government small enough to drown in the bathtub but not so small as to be unable to censor TV shows.
A government small enough to fit in your vagina, your books, your television, your bedroom…
Ian Milhiser at Vox on the "Threat to Other Unenumerated Rights"
I can't do it justice. There are a lot of interesting arguments.
TPM. Alito's Common Law legal foundation is based on withcraft, impossibility of marital rape.
…
Well, this was unfortunate ….
Challenge over Marjorie Taylor Greene's eligibility fails – POLITICO