4 thoughts on “Will Bain Prove to be the Main Issue?”

1. No doubt, Iran is an evolving and serious threat.  One that ironically, we had the chance to defuse, perhaps permanently, in part because we had just overthrown the Taliban in Afghanistan, and had al-Qaeda on the run.  

   Spring 2003 Proposal

   According to Tim Guldimann, former Swiss ambassador to Tehran, Iran issued a proposal to the United States in May 2003 calling for negotiations on a variety of contentious issues between the two countries. The document listed a number of agenda items that the two countries would negotiate and proposed the creation of three parallel working groups to carry out negotiations on disarmament, regional security, and economic cooperation. Key among the agenda items were:

   Relief of all U.S. sanctions on Iran

   Cooperation to stabilize Iraq

   Full transparency over Iran’s nuclear program, including the Additional Protocol
   
   Cooperation against terrorist organizations, particularly the Mujahedin-e Khalq and al-Qaeda

   Iran’s acceptance of the Arab League’s 2002 “land for peace” declaration on Israel/Palestine

   Iran’s full access to peaceful nuclear technology, as well as chemical and bio-technology

   The Bush administration dismissed the proposal in favor of placing additional pressure on Iran.
   

   Odd as it may sound, the fact that in 2002 the Navy extrapolated the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole into a larger war game is coldly comforting to me.  The purpose of that exercise is the awareness and prevention of that very outcome.  Something of which the two carrier groups currently on patrol in the Persian Gulf acutely understand.

   I do trust that as Iran continues to issue more provocative statements, with likely feints of military action,  unlike the bombast coming from certain GOP candidates, the Obama administration will act responsibly to prevent unnecessary escalations.

   Former Pennsylvania Representative Rick Santorum took the strongest stance on Iran, proposing that the U.S. support an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities “before the next explosion in Iran is a nuclear one, and the world changes.”

   The covert campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities will continue I believe, simply because it is preferable to an all-out shooting war, with much the same effect, but at a vastly smaller cost in lives and treasure.  A hard lesson from the past decade.

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   1. 1. Covert is covert until it’s uncovered. I’m reminded of the drone that went down in Iran recently. Was it “off course” in a planned flight over Afghanistan, as the U.S. insisted? Or was it meant to be flying over Iran? Believe what you want, but I’m confident that crashing in Iran was not part of any plan, covert or otherwise. Moreover, the U.S. isn’t the only player in the region by a long shot.

      2. My main point remains that crises — Iran to take one example — of immense magnitude can develop very quickly in fertile soil. There has been little discussion of foreign relations so far, except by Paul and Perry (“send troops back into Iraq”). IF foreign affairs were to become THE issue, how would Romney fare? What is his position du jour on how to respond to blockage of the Strait of Hormuz — or on Obama’s handling of that crisis (as yet unknown)?

      3. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s going to be THE issue in November, right? Except that December job creation figures may have signaled the start of a turnaround. Consumer confidence is improving, which could herald increased consumer spending on which 70% of the economy depends. The answer may become clear over the next three or four months. Self-imposed consumer austerity brought on by the perception of vanished wealth (in turn caused by lower real estate prices) can last only so long. Major must-have items like cars and appliances eventually begin to wear out, requiring replacement. Stats show that manufacturers are beginning to hire, presumably perceiving improved prospects.

      IF unemployment is clearly declining in the September-October time-frame, even if the momentary figure is still in the 7% range (notion: it’s the trend that counts, not the actual number), as now seems entirely possible, what issue is left for Republicans run on? Romney’s personality and his ability to connect to the electorate? Possibly not.

      4. Watch for increasing emphasis on the particulars of Mormonism and the Romney= Bain=Wall Street narratives on one hand, and on the other, a continuation/escalation of the ill-conceived racism of the “birther” movement married to the notion of who/what constitutes a “real American” as opposed to a “European socialist.”

      Obama’s biggest threat may be the non-participation of the disenchanted that might be offset by low turnout of evangelicals? Whereas 2008 was an election of enthusiasm (for Obama), 2012 may turn out to be an election of indifference for either candidate.

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      1. JO, you raise all good points.  My crystal ball is pretty foggy, so I can’t predict what the GOP will do.  But given their current track record, if the economy continues it’s slow recovery, and nothing major changes overseas, then look for them to try to spin any less than perfect news as a disaster that only Obama could have created, hoped for, or should have known was coming. Their spin will be that Ameria needs the GOP’s absolutely flawless combination of vision, skill and values, exemplified by Hoover, Nixon and G.W. Bush.  I also predict their next constitutional amendment will be a call for the re-animation of Reagan’s corpse.

         But seriously, the only reason the GOP uses the red meat social issues, however ludicrous or outrageous they seem to us, is just to insure a good turnout of their base.

         I hope voter/volunteer apathy on our part doesn’t give the crackpots this election.  But if predictions of a billion dollars in campaign spending come true, then I don’t know if it will be apathy or revulsion that might dominate the (lack of) voter turnout.

         One point on the loss of the drone — contrast that to the 1960 loss of the U-2 over Russia with the captured American pilot, Gary Powers.  In comparison, Iran has gotten virtually zero mileage out of the drone (although I’m sure their engineers and those of Russia, China and a few other frenemies of ours are poring over the design details).

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         1. with only 1%.  

            (OK, there probably is, but it’s hard for Gessler to be everywhere to do the necessary  counting.)

            You have to use a small portion of those massive resources to thoroughly scare the shit out of motivate the uninformed, the gullible, and the easily swayed that your “conservative” party, and your party alone, is the only thing protecting their tenuous, questionable, at risk lives and future from utter annihilation.

            (After they’ve voted you can always let your cronies fuck ’em, and then tell ’em it was for their own good.  It’s easier to believe it, and even feel grateful, than to admit you got screwed, . . . again.)

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