Potentially ominous for Democrats, or not, depending on who you talk to–CNN:
In a huge upset that few would have predicted just months ago, a Republican won a special election in a heavily Democratic district in New York for the seat of former Rep. Anthony Weiner.
Republican Bob Turner won the special election Tuesday in 9th Congressional District, defeating Democrat David Weprin after a heated, summer-long race that ignited Democratic fears of a quiet election morphing into a referendum on the party and President Barack Obama, ahead of next year’s elections.
“We’ve asked the people of this district to send a message to Washington, and I hope they hear it loud and clear,” Turner said at his election party in Queens with a packed room, many of them Orthodox Jews.
“Mr. President, you are on the wrong track.”
Our inbox is filling up with post-game analysis, we’ll turn it over to our readers without prejudice. Was this Republican victory driven by a unique district–overwhelmingly Democratic registration, but swingable due to a large “single issue” community? Was it an ongoing reaction to Rep. Anthony Weiner’s disgrace? A poorly organized Martha Coakley-style effort by Democrats?
Or do we lay this at the feet of President Barack Obama like Rep.-elect Turner says?
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This district is going away next cycle and they’ve elected a republican because he ran a better campaign and had better ideas.
It’s not like this is as relevant as the Sal Pace race for CD3. Now that race has some elements of Mr. Pace doing stuff with his weiner that will affect down ballot Democrats.
Different appendage, different pol
Hate to say it, but it’s true.
And the Republicans had absolutely no shame about using that. Including appropriating imagery of Ground Zero for political gain.
I’m pretty disgusted this morning.
Like some I’m related to. They, not younger Jews, are a problem on this issue, and this district has a lot of the elderly.
Cuomo and Gillibrand were the top Mosque supporters and won statewide in 2010 – are you guys sure the Mosque thing was that big of an issue in this district?
I do not personally know the district, but I have read that New York 9th is the most heavily Orthodox Jewish district in the whole of the United States. Without personal knowledge I would guess that the ridiculous mosque issue was pretty big there with the conservative voters who are more likely to show up for special elections. My impression is that Orthodox Jews are more or less like Southern Baptists when it comes to their politics.
that culminated in a prime opportunity for a Republican to take this seat. I don’t see anyone that’s politically savvy suggesting it’s the primary factor that led to a Republican picking up this seat. I’m with you on this one, Ali.
Giuliani was a very prominent supporter of Turner and we had wall to wall coverage of 9/11 last week, right before an election between 2 candidates, the Dem being the one that was a supporter of the Mosque.
So was it a factor? I think yes, as was the coincidental timing of the election 2 days after the 10 year anniversary of 9/11. Was it the factor that lost this race for Welprin? No. Just one of many.
New York State is not New York’s 9th.
The 9th is rabbinical court central, or so I’ve been told. Would not be at all surprised if that pushed the needle, since community leaders made Israel such an issue in this particular race. Not to mention it was the only thing going at the time — not a full election cycle where there would be much more competition for voters’ limited attention spans.
I hope whoever is behind that mailer is very ashamed of him/herself.
the morals of a slut
And yes, if that person got laid more often, they probably would relax and be less of a bigot. Do I get to pick which? ‘Cause the sluttiest person I know is also incredibly scrupulous and ethical.
Unless you’re joining in hushing Grey. Then we’ll shush together. Like a pack of wild librarians.
There were a bunch of things that added up to defeat. Some were unique to this race, like the fact that the candidate was a party tool. Some will hold in matching districts, like the Israel items.
But some are bad news for us Dems everywhere. And pretending that this was totally due to items in the first 2 categories would be a bad move. Because if we don’t address those general issues, it’s going to be bad news for Dems across the country next year.
Democrats, including those in Colorado, continue to rationalize away the Republican tide….MA; 2010 and now New York. Why? I honestly don’t know.
I suspect that most dems live in Denver, and feel economically secure and so politics is a part time game.
I also think that OFA is one of the worst thing that Obama could have done…..IMHO, they are eastern, out of touch, non-responsive and looking for career moves and are not particularly invested in den party victories….
And, again, people….talk radio; talk radio; talk radio. The Republicans, to quote Reagan, bought the microphone.
The sky is falling.
The Tea Party can rest easy knoing they are the new and improved new thing. Like the old thing but wayy better.
Oh- and in case anyone still cares, Martha Stewart isn’t going to beat Scott Brown in MA so just get over it now.
And orthodox Jews are a tiny minority within a minority. Most Jews, here and in Israel, support a two state solution according to numerous polls and most American Jews will still vote democratic in 2012, as they always have. But Dave is right. We pretend this is no big deal at our peril.
House 435 Members:
193 D
242 Republicans
Senate 100 Members
51 Democrats
47 Republicans
2 Independent
Losing in NY yesterday means the required swing is 25 instead of 24.
In the Senate , the D’s need to preserve a majority. But since we know they are useless with less than 61, preserving the majority, no mater how slim, is required since the R had no problem governing as if they had a mandate even when they needed the VP to come down and break ties because the D’s wouldn’t filibuster.
Tammany style choice from the NY Democratic machine picks a crap candidate, in a district that in 2008 Obama carried but actually did worse in than Kerry did in 2004, Obama’s miserable polling numbers, backlash against Weiner embarrassing his district’s constituents with his antics and subsequent bullshit two week denial fest, NY state passing gay marriage amendment (Weprin voted for it in the state house) and Ed Koch revving up the Jewish vote for Turner.
With that sort of combination, it’s kind of like the perfect storm.
This was a great pick up opportunity for the Republicans. They knew it and did what needed to be done to pick off the seat. Props to them.
Party registration, even trends aren’t particularly helpful in todays world in gauging how voters will vote.