September 06, 2011 09:34 PM UTC

Will Romney "Pawlentify" Before Perry?

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• by: Colorado Pols

With contested GOP presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney headed for an important debate this week, and a fundraiser in Denver Friday featuring a who’s-who of Colorado Republican luminaries, conservative columnist Mark Thiessen of the Washington Post asks some pointed questions–for starters, can Romney summon up the courage to take on Rick Perry in person?

Romney advisers told me recently that he was planning to stay above the fray and leave the attacks on Perry to the other candidates. But with his precipitous slide in the polls, Romney may no longer have that luxury – assuming the wildfires in Texas are under control enough to allow Perry to attend the debate. Perry has pulled ahead of him in Iowa, South Carolina, Ohio and Nevada (a state Romney’s team had taken as a given), has tied him in California, and holds a double-digit lead over Romney in three national polls.

Perry’s lead not only is wide, it is deep. According to NPR, Perry “has substantial leads over Romney among men and women and across all age groups. He leads in all geographical regions save for one, the East, where Perry is tied. And, ominously for Romney, Perry is just four points behind Romney with liberal to moderate voters and [Romney] trails Perry with rare or non-church-goers. That is remarkable.”

Faced with this juggernaut, Romney appears to be shifting strategy – and has begun taking shots at Perry on the campaign trail…[t]he question is: Will Romney repeat these jabs when Perry is standing next to him on the debate stage? He may not have a choice. Romney will almost certainly be asked about his stepped-up attacks on Perry. If he passes on the chance to repeat them, he risks “pulling a Pawlenty” – ducking the chance to confront his opponent in person after attacking him before other audiences. This proved to be the death blow to Pawlenty’s campaign. Romney cannot afford to repeat Pawlenty’s mistake.

To be clear, there are lots of dissimilarities between the campaigns of former Govs. Romney and Tim Pawlenty, most obviously the huge difference in fundraising–not to mention the laughably uninspiring campaign style that doomed the latter almost from the start. But it was Pawlenty’s unwillingness to stand up to Romney in a debate, given a wide-open shot and after days of hitting Romney in stump speeches, that convinced Republicans he didn’t have what it takes.

And in that respect, Romney’s first head-to-head confrontation with Perry this week is a similar dilemma to the challenge Pawlenty faced–and failed. With the “Tea Party” readying an “Anybody But Romney” campaign, and Perry fast eclipsing Romney’s once-solid frontrunner status, Wednesday’s debate could well be Romney’s last best chance to reassert himself.

Who knows? Perhaps Marc Holtzman and Scott McInnis, who helped Perry raise big bucks in Aspen last month, will be on the phone RSVP’ing for Romney’s fundraiser after a command performance Wednesday night. Or, as Perry’s Colorado money men, maybe Holtzman and McInnis will be the ones taking phone calls on Thursday morning? Stay tuned…