May 29, 2011 12:48 PM UTC

Shock Poll: Hancock by 10

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• by: redstateblues

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

UPDATE:

How about a little spin with your Sunday morning coffee? Romer and Hancock respond:

Hancock:

In the words of Wellington Webb, “A poll is just a snapshot in time. The only poll that actually matters is the one on Election Day.”  

We know from early ballot returns that our opponent has strong support, and these poll results will only make our opponent and his allies more likely to step up their attacks against us.

This is pretty much the same message Hancock has had for the entire second round. The e-mail goes on to make a fund raising ask, which is pretty easy to do when you get a poll like the one published this morning.

Romer:

The poll itself has significant flaws. The sample size is very small. It is a push-button poll, not conducted by actually talking to voters – whoever answers the phone just punches numbers. And most importantly, this pollster has a history of polls that are wildly at odds with actual results.

Romer’s campaign is correct in pointing out previous Survey USA polls have incorrectly predicted the outcomes of races–most recently in the US Senate primary between Andrew Romanoff and Michael Bennet. However, Romer Campaign Manager Adam Dunstone’s criticism of Survey USA’s accuracy in this particular race, which centers on James Mejia’s apparent drop compared to May 3rd’s result, ignores a couple realities: 1) By Survey USA’s own analysis of their polling, Mejia’s performance was dependent on Latino voters turning out, something that did not end up materializing, and 2) Carol Boigon’s withdrawal from the race, and subsequent endorsement of Hancock, occurred largely as a result of that poll and changed the dynamic of the race.

Original post follows

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With just 10 days left in the race to become the next mayor of Denver, a new poll shows a clear front-runner–Michael Hancock. As Fox 31’s Eli Stokols reports:

Hancock has 49 percent support, and Romer has 39 percent in a telephone survey of 548 likely voters conducted last week by SurveyUSA.

Eleven percent of voters remain undecided with just 10 days left until mail ballots are due on June 7.

Hancock’s advantage in the poll was even larger than many anticipated earlier in the week. [rsb emphasis]

Previous polling done by RBI Strategies and Colorado Pols showed Hancock with a four point lead in the early stages of the second round of voting. Naturally, the reason this poll is so shocking is that despite a nearly daily barrage of attacks from the Romer campaign on issues ranging from abortion, to evolution, to (most recently) immigration, Hancock’s lead has not only grown, it’s grown to double digits.

Political analysts, like Eric Sondermann in the article quoted above, are pointing out that time is running out for Romer to make a move; at ten days out, though, you don’t have to be a political insider to see that this poll shows Romer is in deep trouble. Romer’s problem isn’t just a matter of time, either. Given the tenor of the campaign, it’s possible that not only have Romer’s swings come up empty, but they’ve turned off people who are making up their minds based on likability factors, as Sondermann points out in the Fox 31 article:

“I don’t think voters think the stakes are terribly big or if there’s that big a philosophical difference between the candidates,” Sondermann said. “So if there’s not that big a difference, go with the guy you like.”

Of course, if this race was always going to be about personality and likability, then there really shouldn’t be anything shocking about this poll.