U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
March 04, 2011 12:04 AM UTC
32 Comments
Maybe DeGette will have to show up in her district once in a while.
If you lived in Denver, you’d know DeGette has been all over the district this year. You can hardly attend a Democratic event where she hasn’t spoken.
… that keeps whole counties in the rural areas and whole cities in the metro area.
Just when I get one part figured out, I realize I made an error else where.
I had high hopes of unifying Aurora, but that seems to not be going to happen. It does beg a philosophical question though: Which is the bigger community of interest: Aurora being unified as a city or the mostly Democratic northern 2/3 being separated from the very Republican 1/3?
Calling Ed Perlmutter: any chance you may be house shopping someplace further east and north? Please! LOL
For those of you looking to play with census data, there’s something called Dave’s Redistricting App linked from over at Swing State Project that has shape maps of all the census data so you can play interactively with redistricting maps.
Have tried five or six differenct scenario’s. Dems have an almost impossible job to increase their advantage. The only way for Dems to increase their advantage is to split Denver either east-west (easiest) or north-south. Without this, they simply can’t do any better than they already are with three Dem Districts, two lean republican districts and two strong Republican Districts.
Two of the main redistricting rules is to keep counties and like-constituencies together. So, splitting big counties is not likely, unless that is the only way to make things even in the end, as Dan noted. Each district is dominated by one or two big population centers, which you can’t move without drastic compensation on another end of the district. You can shift a lot of little counties without any D/R impact. So, once you have the big populations set, all you can do is work around the edges to even the populations.
First step in redistricting is probably to see if orphan county pieces can be re-contected (Longmont, Salida, Rocky Ford, if I read the map correctly.)
The two strong Dems and two strong Republican districts aren’t likely to change much because their big population centers are pretty much set. The two “swing” districts can’t be made safe for either party because there are no heavy-D or heavy-R population centers available to benefit either Party.
The takeover of the Republican Party by the tea-baggers and bigots will end up being the main driver for which Party dominates in the swing districts over the next election cycles.
That said, it looks like the simplest changes move population from Coffman’s CD-06 to De Gette’s CD-01 and Perlmutter’s CD-07, but those changes don’t shift enough Republicans to make much difference.
TOYS!
I’ve pointed Dan to something shiny.
Played with the redsitricting app last night a little, mostly to figure out how it works, etc. Will make maps this weekend and post my redistricting ideas on my website (www.dan-willis.com).
It really is a cool tool!
More like a very Republican 1/6. There is a Democratic plurality in 5 of the 6 city council wards. Only Ward VI in the southeast corner of the city is plurality GOP.
In any event, the community of interest in Aurora is defined by school district – the northern part that is in Aurora Public Schools (very diverse, working class, strongly D), and the southern part that is in Cherry Creek Schools (more of a partisan swing area). In population, Aurora is about 50/50 between the school districts.
but being in a completely safe district would be kind of boring. On the other hand, I don’t think my slice of CD6 will be that lucky. We’re south central Littleton proper. Could we be stuck with an even worse demo?!?
Both of those districts will probably extend a ways into Littleton. Though looking at the map, I’d say you’re probably likely to stay in a redrawn CD-6 that has lost its more-Democratic leaning areas to Diana DeGette.
But I suspect you’re right. Oh well. It’s not as if having no chance to support a winning congressional candidate will be a new thing.
Tens of thousands going to CO-7.
CD-2 and CD-4 need to shed voters to the north of CD-7. It’s likely that the Summit County piece of CD-2 will end up in CD-7, for one thing.
A: they cannot.
they can…perhaps just not as well as we all would like.
…especially on a hot summer day in DC?!
Do these numbers mean that Denver will lose State House or Senate seats. Most of DeGette’s District is in Denver and if she is losing 56,000 voters does that mean Denver loses a House seat and most of a Senate seat?
Don’t know just asking.
Dave’s redistricting tool can be used to create 35 senate districts and 65 house districts. I don’t think the app can indicate previous year’s districts.
Let’s see, 5.029 million people means, 77,370 people per House district, and 143,690 people per Senate district.
and there’s a big meeting about it going on at this very moment @ the Capitol.
Not sure what, if any, results will come out of it but it’s being discussed.
that CD3 will pick up Eagle County from CD2 (and lose something eastern like Otero), making it a bit more evenly matched for next year?
Eagle Co would add more D’s to the 3rd CD column AND it takes care of CD 3 and CD 2 problems at the same time.
But Dem Eaglites won’t be happy under Tipton and may fight that CD change — unless the CD3 Dems have a great candidate in the wings to entice them. (Not sure that’s Sal, sorry….)
I have been finding it difficult to maintain whole counties. One may have to be split and I hate that.
Ed Quillen, if you reading this. I am trying to get Chaffee in CD3. I haven’t forgotten you. 🙂
already splits counties.
keep/make the cities whole.
My goal would be to make all of them more competitive. Safe districts make for Reps who don’t feel pressured to be responsive to voters they know to be mainly uninformed and ready to pull one lever or the other. Right now, if you live in CD6 and you’re a Democrat, you may as well not even vote in the congressional category and you can call your congress member all you want. they don’t care. Neither does deGette care about anyone other than Dems in hers. Why should they when they don’t have to?
It doesn’t make for responsive government. CD7 would be my model for a district that gets constituents heard and puts the Rep to work for them.
My goal is to come up with maps to argue for that the legislature can pass and would hold up to court challenges.
If the legislature can manage to get it done without having a judge overturn it, it will be the first time (in living memory at least) that has happened.
If it goes to a judge, we will end up with something as ugly as we have now. My favorite ugly redistricting story are the 3 voters who live Jeffco but are in CD1. 3! Really? There is also stupid things like cutting Otero county in two that judges do that I want to avoid.
The parties have their advocates to argue for more D or R districts so I focus on arguing for undivided communities.
but am glad the the fight over CD7 resulted in a competitive district. It’s easy for voters to get apathetic in a district like mine where the result is a foregone conclusion in every single congressional race.
we CD6 Dems still find the situation depressing. We feel like we have to make the effort for our candidate, have to at least write out a small check, but get really tired of doing so knowing it’s futile. Many who became active in 2004 have had enough and in 2010 it was really hard to find volunteers for Flerlage.
By now all those volunteers who came in years ago naive and believing that enough hard work could result in a CD win are seasoned and disabused. It effects enthusiasm for participation in politics in general, not just for the CD seat. If my Dem neighbor/volunteers suddenly found CD6 transformed into a competitive district like CD7, they’d be fired up again and back in the game.