February 21, 2011 01:42 AM UTC

The Arabia model? Eastern Europe

•  
• by: DavidThi808

It looks like Libya is next to fall

Anti-government protesters in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi have reportedly seized army vehicles and weapons amid worsening turmoil in the African nation.

A local witness said that a section of the troops had joined the protesters on Sunday as chaos swept the streets of the city, worst hit by the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year old rule.

Meanwhile, there were reports of clashes between anti-government protesters and Gaddafi supporters around the Green Square in the capital, Tripoli.

…

While the head of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya has threatened to cut off oil exports unless authorities stop what he called the “oppression of protesters”, the Warfala tribe, one of Libya’s biggest, has reportedly joined the anti-Gaddafi protests.

There are other Arab countries that were as repressive as Libya but I don’t think any of them are significantly more repressive. If Libya can flip in a week, which looks very possible, then most any country can.

I’d say the only countries safe now are Oman, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf Kingdoms that have done a good job of spreading the wealth around.

If Gaddafi cannot retake Benghazi and part of the Army as well as most of the tribes are against Gaddafi, then he’s toast. It may take a week or so to play out, but he can’t win.

And maybe just another day or two

Online reports claim remaining pro-Gaddafi militia in Benghazi, around the Elfedeel Bu Omar compound, “are being butchered by angry mobs”.  It is impossible to verify the claims, though Al Jazeera has spoken with several people in the city who say protesters control the city, as security forces flee to the airport.

…

[Tripoli] “There are no police, no army, no security forces. Everything is blocked off by protesters – and, as we cross the town – where apartment buildings are filled with people who live here – we are picking people up on the way. Everybody has been waiting for this – and it’s finally happening.

My guess is the King in Bahrain realizes he has one chance and is willing to negotiate a constitutional monarchy. Jordan & Morocco may also succeed if they compromise – fast. But I think the rest are heading for a complete change, possibly including Saudi Arabia.

I think Iraq & Lebanon are safe because they are democracies. Imperfect ones, but they have elections to determine who’s in charge. That legitimacy will protect them.

So, who’s next?

 Loading ...