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February 03, 2011 07:51 PM UTC

Is the GOP Presidential Field Too Big?

  • 34 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We didn’t get a chance yesterday to point to this interesting piece from our friends at “The Fix” about the Republican Presidential field. As “The Fix” ponders, is the GOP field so large (at least 18 potential candidates already) that it will hurt their chances at taking back the White House in 2012?

Since the 1968 election, the largest number of candidates to run for a party’s nomination is 12, which has happened four times: 1972 (Democrats), 1976 (Democrats), 2000 (Republicans) and 2008 (Republicans). (The last presidential election holds the distinction as the largest combined field with 20 total candidates seeking their respective parties’ nominations.)…

…But, is there a danger for Republican in the general election if the primary field does grow to a dozen or more?

…History provides mixed results on the question. In the four contests where one side had 12 people in the running, the party with the large field won two general elections and lost two. And, it’s hard to ascribe Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 loss to the large number of GOP candidates in the race.

That doesn’t mean that an overcrowded field of candidates can’t impact a primary, however.

The two biggest risks of an overcrowded field, notes “The Fix,” are these:

1. A large field makes it harder for credible, but lesser-known candidates to get traction;

2. A crowded race could extend the Primary season into the spring and summer of 2012, which leaves less time for the GOP to unite behind one candidate.

What do you think, Polsters? Vote after the jump.

Does a Huge GOP Field Hurt Their Chances in 2012?

View Results

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34 thoughts on “Is the GOP Presidential Field Too Big?”

  1. Seriously- of the candidates and likely candidates of which I am aware, I don’t like any of them much.  And I have liked R candidates before.

    Surely there must be better R candidates somewhere.  Until they get into it, the field is not big enough.

    2. If the field is too big, it’s harder for the lesser-known candidates — who may be potentially stronger than Romney, Palin, etc. — to really become known. Potentially you might have some affinity for one of the lesser-known candidates, but they get lost in the spotlight of the bigger names.

  2. Not an “If I didn’t like the Democratic nominee, well, maybe…” among them for me. Not even one who I don’t like, would never vote for, but at least can see as a sincere, forthright public servant genuinely running on the economy, not social issues.

    Usually at least one I kinda like sneaks on the [R] ballot briefly before getting creamed in the primary. Like the McCain of 2000. (I refuse to believe 2008 McCain was the same guy. It has to be an android wearing John’s skin or something.)

    1. …a batshit crazy, nonsensical version that disbelieves science and seems to have a tenuous grasp on math.

      (I never bought into that shit, btw…..)

      See the goalie fight last night?

        1. It’s past time for Foppa to go.  Come on. His body betrayed him a long time ago and  his biological time for bouncing back to NHL ready status is long gone. Isn’t the increasingly boring Carmello watch tedious enough without adding another local sports deathwatch story at this late date in the BBall/Hockey season?

              1. It’s just a tragedy, though.  If he’d come into the league ten years later than he did, post lockout and post-rules changes, he’d have incredible, incredible numbers.

                He spent the bulk of his career with some chucklehead (usually an L.A. King) draped all over him, holding onto his jersey for dear life because they simply couldn’t defend him.

                1. If a slight breeze came thru the Staples center while Forsberg was on the ice, he’d flop on the ice and whine to the nearest ref. Dude deserves an Olympic gold medal…..

                  BTW, it was Drury that killed the Kings in that game 7, not the Swedish Dive champion.

                  All the smack in the world is not going to get you out of our bet. Again, XL vintage Colorado Rockies white, personalized for Chico Resch

                  1. He was Peter the Great for a reason.  No reasonable person could possibly believe his only talent was diving. Now you’re really going to make LB’s head explode.  Look out!

    2. Barbour

      Bayh

      Sanford & Demint

      from Wikipedia:

      2011 New Hampshire Straw Poll

      1 Mitt Romney 35%

      2 Ron Paul 11%

      3 Tim Pawlenty 8%

      4 Sarah Palin 7%

      5 Michelle Bachmann 5%

      5 Jim DeMint 5%

      7 Mike Huckabee 3%

      7 Newt Gingrich 3%

      7 Mitch Daniels 3%

      10 Rudy Giuliani 2%

      11 Donald Trump 1%

      Fred karger

      Herman Cain

      Huntsman,

      Bloomberg,

      Bush,

      Gingrich

      Thune

      Bolton

      Gary Johnson

      Coburn

      Crist

  5. Overall, a BIG field is actually a good thing, as well as long, DRAWN out primaries

    Remember – Bill Clinton won in 1992, not because of a clear field, but because he was constantly on TV, due to the fact that he and Jerry Brown went to the wire

    Ditto on Obama & Hilary Clinton (and McCain, for that matter)

    John Kerry’s most popular ratings came while he was pummeling everyone in the primary, not when he went up against GW Bush

    Overall – a big primary, with many contenders, that lasts for a long time, is an EXCELLENT thing, because it gives that Party more time to express its views, publicly debate them, showcase their candidates, and in the end, become more and more palpable to American audiences

    The biggest downside of a major primary is that the eventual winner could become extremely burnt out, by the time the entire process is over, leaving nothing left for the General — Bill Clinton and Obama overcame these fatigues in 1992 and 2008 likely because they were quite young

    So overall – a big primary is a great thing, as long as the eventual winner is young enough to withstand the fatigue of it all

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