Wednesday Open Thread

“You must never be satisfied with losing. You must get angry, terribly angry, about losing. But the mark of the good loser is that he takes his anger out on himself and not his victorious opponents or on his teammates.”

–Richard Nixon

0 Shares

54 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. davebarnes says:

    Today is National Parfait Day 

  2. ParkHill says:

    WOTD 2024 Presidential Election: "Counting chickens: 303 or 319"

    Redistricting will remove some seats from the rust belt while increasing them in the South. This will change the numbers in the electoral college a bit. Assuming that the Democrats win the same seats, they will have 303 electoral votes. If they win North Carolina as well, they reach 319.

    That leaves only the the very large states of Texas and Florida as the Republican electoral base. They'll probably move to the D column in 2028.

    • DavidThi808 says:

      We dems will win Florida & Texas when we learn that the Latino vote is not a monolith and we learn how to respect and work with all the different groups and their concerns.

      So in short – never.

    • kickshot says:

      TX likely to gain 3 EC votes, FL 2.

      CO 1

      The reapportionment moves more EC votes into historically red states so Ds better get on on it.

      • JohnInDenver says:

        “Northeastern and Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota may lose seats, while Western and Southern states such as Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia may gain seats.”

        My typographical changes to show Democratic and Republican electoral votes from this election. 

        Several of those will continue to be “battleground states” — with the outcomes uncertain and probably tied to local economies and selected candidates as much as partisan ideological preference.

        • ParkHill says:

          While MI, PA and NY lose seats, I assume that the decline in the rural areas means you have to shrink or combine Republican seats. Dems probably lose here and there in the electoral college, but they won't lose much in the House of Representatives. The Senate is state-wide, so gerrymandering doesn't help, and the Republicans need voter-suppression.

          Likewise in TX and FL you have to increase seats out of Urban and Suburban population growth, so Dems might not lose as much as you think once you drill down.

          Of course we're interested in Colorado. 

          I can't imagine we'll ADD a Republican seat as all the Colorado growth has been in the front range. But, existing Republican districts may remain safe. I'm not sure what would happen if Fort Collins is joined with Greeley and the plains. 

          • 2Jung2Die says:

            Ft. Collins joined with Greeley and the plains sounds a lot like the 4th before the last redistricting. We got Marilyn Musgrave for most of that decade, with 2 years of Betsy Markey before "she voted for Obamacare" (read in an ominous attack ad voice). Larimer County as a whole is much more conservative than Ft. Collins proper.

            • ParkHill says:

              Right. A lot of California refugees moving "somewhere nice, dear" (i.e. white). Loveland is downright antediluvian, not counting teachers and recent-grads who can't afford Fort Collins.

              On the other hand, Greeley has grown a lot (perhaps Conservative-ish), and Southern Weld includes the whole NE edge of the Denver Metro area. Denver Suburbs include some racial diversity and youth, i.e. Gen-X.

      • ParkHill says:

        If TX, FL and NC get a Stacey Abrams then we'll see our non-voting base turnout improve. As David Th says, the Democrats need to start talking to the actual electorate on the ground, and as Bitecofer says, the Democratic Party's failure to do a field operation is electioneering malpractice.

        The link above takes you to a site where you can see the electoral college shifts given the likely changes to House seats. So yes, TX gaining 3 seats is included. If Biden wins the same all the same states, then he is at 303. 

        It will be interesting to see how the House of Representatives shifts. As noted, TX gains more seats, but most of the US population growth has been in the suburbs so Democratic areas are growing, while rural ones are shrinking. In TX they will gerrymander, but even so the Republican might not be able to claim all the new districts.

        CO, OR & MT each gain a seat, which I likely results in three more Democrats.

        Senate 2022

        One last thing. 2022 Senate outlook has good prospects for Democratic pickups in PA, WI, NC and GA; potentially FL and OH (if the Dems get their messaging and turnout machine together.)

        • Conserv. Head Banger says:

          The only way a new MT seat goes Dem is if the major college towns (Missoula, Bozeman, Billings) are in that district.

          And Billings has a lot of blue collar workers what with the oil refineries and railroad shops. Having said that, MT is a funky state, much unlike UT or ID, as examples.

          • ParkHill says:

            I assume MT will be an East-West divide. 

            In any case the only towns of significance are the three you mention plus Helena. You can't put them all in the same district as there isn't enough rural population to make up its own district, no matter how crazy you gerrymander.

            • Conserv. Head Banger says:

              I left out Great Falls which is a large city, for Montana. Then there is the home of the far right wing loonies, plus a bunch of normal people, in the Kalispell area.

              • gertie97 says:

                Billings is the conservative bastion of Montana. Always has been. It’s a lot like Grand Junction, geographically as well as politically. Missoula, Helena and Butte are the Democratic base in the state. Bozeman is growing but it’s where Montana State (Moo U) is located, as is guv-elect Body Slammer.

                Back when Montana had two seats in the House, the state was split roughly east-west. The Ds held one, the Rs had one.

                 

                • Conserv. Head Banger says:

                  Well, I did reference Billings as being a place with a lot of blue collar workers. And it is a college town. But you're saying that Eastern Montana is similar to Mesa State & Grand Junction, in influencing the town?

                  As an aside, my MT family is way up north, in Havre and Conrad.

                  • ParkHill says:

                    On the high line.

                    Farmers or ranchers?

                    • Conserv. Head Banger says:

                      Yes, the High Line, but neither of your choices other than some gardening. It’s been all professionals (not that farmers and ranchers aren’t pros in what they do): an M.D., public health nurse, computer consultant, MT state trooper, I.T. staff for some local businesses.

                      Two from the family now live in NV; licensed long distance haz mat driver & skilled mechanic for RR engines. Also a high school teacher.

                      The nurse’s mother and my father were sister & brother.

  3. Duke Cox says:

    After a conversation with my Cat this morning, I decided it was important to mention a phenomenon I first began to understand back during the O&G wars a decade ago. Many of us have been suffering from "hypervigilance" for the past 4 years.

    Every morning we have awakened to "Now what?" After four years of waiting for the axe to fall at any moment, constantly wondering what is next, we can kinda start to take a breather. Relax and be confident that our nation is on a healing path…for a change. 

    Let's all pitch in and try to ratchet down the hypertension. Except in CD3…who knows WTF is gonna happen here. Congesswoman Calamity Jane (Q- Rifle) Boebert will keep us entertained and unrepresented for a couple of years.

    Oy.

    • kickshot says:

      Something tells me that you really don't want her kind of representation. No?

      • Duke Cox says:

        Give that contestant a ceegar!!

        It would seem logical a voter would support a representative who cares about and advances their interests. Mrs. Boebert, to the extent that she stands for anything besides guns, hips, and “Nuhn- unh!”, does not represent my feelings, beliefs, or interests in any substantial, unperverted way.

        Her ignorance is an embarrassment. Her demeanor is even more so. The real disappointment is in the campaign of DMB.

        There may never be a better chance to take that seat.

        Luckily…Lauren will accomplish exactly nothing…except eat a lot of government cheese.

    • MADCO says:

      I know this will be reassuring – I refuse to certify any results.

    • The realist says:

      It's entirely possible that Boebert will come to a bad end even before her two-and-only-two years are up. She's really anxious to flash her Glock around Congress and D.C. That might not go so well for her.

  4. JohnInDenver says:

    Interesting article in the Colorado Sun today:  How the Cardboard Cory protest in Colorado helped Democrats defeat Gardner in the U.S. Senate race

    A group of activists and ProgressNow Colorado shaped the political conversation and created one of the most iconic advocacy campaigns in recent memory

  5. Voyageur says:

    Have a great Thanksgiving, everybody.  We celebrated early Tuesday because my son-in-law has to work Thursday.  This is my favorite holiday, the only one not corrupted by greed and commerce.  Just friends and family and memories both bitter and sweet.

    And our dogs made out like bandits!

    You folks are on the list of things I'm thankful for.  The Covid blockade has made on line friends even more special.

     

  6. RepealAndReplace says:

    Looks like Donald is not going to try to upstage Rudy's Gettysburg Address.

    Trump Scraps Plan to Attend Giuliani’s Gettysburg Election Event (msn.com)

    If they held it at the Four Seasons, he could have stopped next door at Fantasy Island to see if they had anything new featuring Stormy Daniels.

  7. davebarnes says:

    Well, my Mayor is a fucking idiot.

    HandonCock is flying to Mississippi for a family Thanksgiving.

  8. OpenSpace says:

    So who becomes mayor if/when Hancock the Hypocrite resigns ?

Leave a Reply

Comment from your Facebook account


You may comment with your Colorado Pols account above (click here to register), or via Facebook below.