CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 25, 2020 06:23 AM UTC
54 Comments
Today is National Parfait Day
WOTD 2024 Presidential Election: "Counting chickens: 303 or 319"
Redistricting will remove some seats from the rust belt while increasing them in the South. This will change the numbers in the electoral college a bit. Assuming that the Democrats win the same seats, they will have 303 electoral votes. If they win North Carolina as well, they reach 319.
That leaves only the the very large states of Texas and Florida as the Republican electoral base. They'll probably move to the D column in 2028.
We dems will win Florida & Texas when we learn that the Latino vote is not a monolith and we learn how to respect and work with all the different groups and their concerns.
So in short – never.
TX likely to gain 3 EC votes, FL 2.
CO 1
The reapportionment moves more EC votes into historically red states so Ds better get on on it.
“Northeastern and Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota may lose seats, while Western and Southern states such as Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia may gain seats.”
My typographical changes to show Democratic and Republican electoral votes from this election.
Several of those will continue to be “battleground states” — with the outcomes uncertain and probably tied to local economies and selected candidates as much as partisan ideological preference.
While MI, PA and NY lose seats, I assume that the decline in the rural areas means you have to shrink or combine Republican seats. Dems probably lose here and there in the electoral college, but they won't lose much in the House of Representatives. The Senate is state-wide, so gerrymandering doesn't help, and the Republicans need voter-suppression.
Likewise in TX and FL you have to increase seats out of Urban and Suburban population growth, so Dems might not lose as much as you think once you drill down.
Of course we're interested in Colorado.
I can't imagine we'll ADD a Republican seat as all the Colorado growth has been in the front range. But, existing Republican districts may remain safe. I'm not sure what would happen if Fort Collins is joined with Greeley and the plains.
Ft. Collins joined with Greeley and the plains sounds a lot like the 4th before the last redistricting. We got Marilyn Musgrave for most of that decade, with 2 years of Betsy Markey before "she voted for Obamacare" (read in an ominous attack ad voice). Larimer County as a whole is much more conservative than Ft. Collins proper.
Right. A lot of California refugees moving "somewhere nice, dear" (i.e. white). Loveland is downright antediluvian, not counting teachers and recent-grads who can't afford Fort Collins.
On the other hand, Greeley has grown a lot (perhaps Conservative-ish), and Southern Weld includes the whole NE edge of the Denver Metro area. Denver Suburbs include some racial diversity and youth, i.e. Gen-X.
If TX, FL and NC get a Stacey Abrams then we'll see our non-voting base turnout improve. As David Th says, the Democrats need to start talking to the actual electorate on the ground, and as Bitecofer says, the Democratic Party's failure to do a field operation is electioneering malpractice.
The link above takes you to a site where you can see the electoral college shifts given the likely changes to House seats. So yes, TX gaining 3 seats is included. If Biden wins the same all the same states, then he is at 303.
It will be interesting to see how the House of Representatives shifts. As noted, TX gains more seats, but most of the US population growth has been in the suburbs so Democratic areas are growing, while rural ones are shrinking. In TX they will gerrymander, but even so the Republican might not be able to claim all the new districts.
CO, OR & MT each gain a seat, which I likely results in three more Democrats.
Senate 2022
One last thing. 2022 Senate outlook has good prospects for Democratic pickups in PA, WI, NC and GA; potentially FL and OH (if the Dems get their messaging and turnout machine together.)
The only way a new MT seat goes Dem is if the major college towns (Missoula, Bozeman, Billings) are in that district.
And Billings has a lot of blue collar workers what with the oil refineries and railroad shops. Having said that, MT is a funky state, much unlike UT or ID, as examples.
I assume MT will be an East-West divide.
In any case the only towns of significance are the three you mention plus Helena. You can't put them all in the same district as there isn't enough rural population to make up its own district, no matter how crazy you gerrymander.
I left out Great Falls which is a large city, for Montana. Then there is the home of the far right wing loonies, plus a bunch of normal people, in the Kalispell area.
Billings is the conservative bastion of Montana. Always has been. It’s a lot like Grand Junction, geographically as well as politically. Missoula, Helena and Butte are the Democratic base in the state. Bozeman is growing but it’s where Montana State (Moo U) is located, as is guv-elect Body Slammer.
Back when Montana had two seats in the House, the state was split roughly east-west. The Ds held one, the Rs had one.
Well, I did reference Billings as being a place with a lot of blue collar workers. And it is a college town. But you're saying that Eastern Montana is similar to Mesa State & Grand Junction, in influencing the town?
As an aside, my MT family is way up north, in Havre and Conrad.
On the high line.
Farmers or ranchers?
Yes, the High Line, but neither of your choices other than some gardening. It’s been all professionals (not that farmers and ranchers aren’t pros in what they do): an M.D., public health nurse, computer consultant, MT state trooper, I.T. staff for some local businesses.
Two from the family now live in NV; licensed long distance haz mat driver & skilled mechanic for RR engines. Also a high school teacher.
The nurse’s mother and my father were sister & brother.
I think this is the best discussion of work at home vs. go back to the office.
After a conversation with my Cat this morning, I decided it was important to mention a phenomenon I first began to understand back during the O&G wars a decade ago. Many of us have been suffering from "hypervigilance" for the past 4 years.
Every morning we have awakened to "Now what?" After four years of waiting for the axe to fall at any moment, constantly wondering what is next, we can kinda start to take a breather. Relax and be confident that our nation is on a healing path…for a change.
Let's all pitch in and try to ratchet down the hypertension. Except in CD3…who knows WTF is gonna happen here. Congesswoman Calamity Jane (Q- Rifle) Boebert will keep us entertained and unrepresented for a couple of years.
Oy.
Something tells me that you really don't want her kind of representation. No?
Give that contestant a ceegar!!
It would seem logical a voter would support a representative who cares about and advances their interests. Mrs. Boebert, to the extent that she stands for anything besides guns, hips, and “Nuhn- unh!”, does not represent my feelings, beliefs, or interests in any substantial, unperverted way.
Her ignorance is an embarrassment. Her demeanor is even more so. The real disappointment is in the campaign of DMB.
There may never be a better chance to take that seat.
Luckily…Lauren will accomplish exactly nothing…except eat a lot of government cheese.
On the money, Duke. DMB and her campaign staff blew it. No excuse.
Happy Turkey Day, my friend!
I know this will be reassuring – I refuse to certify any results.
It's entirely possible that Boebert will come to a bad end even before her two-and-only-two years are up. She's really anxious to flash her Glock around Congress and D.C. That might not go so well for her.
Israeli military prepares for possibility Trump will strike Iran
Now comes the full-on 4 year old. He wants to stick his finger in as many eyes as possible.
He is trying to start a war to prevent our re-entering the accord.
Interesting article in the Colorado Sun today: How the Cardboard Cory protest in Colorado helped Democrats defeat Gardner in the U.S. Senate race
I met "Cardboard Cory" at a happy hour during the summer Outdoor Retailer show in Denver last year. I found him to be quite a charming conversationalist.
I had a nice email exchange with Tim Miller as a follow-up to his piece in the Triad on leaving the GOP. He was particularly interested in the dynamics that led to the Gardner loss.
Interesting thoughts, Michael. I assume you mentioned Cory's failure to hold meaningful town hall meetings?
That was my lede. Followed by his inability to transition from the Congressman of a safe, red district to statesman of a purple-turned-blue state.
Could Cardboard Cory hold his liquor at happy hour?
Seemed to hold it. But then I didn’t have to drive anywhere and maybe didn’t notice. All I had to do was “stagger” down the 16th St. mall to catch a train (actually, I wasn’t that bad off, but I was partying with my compadres).
Have a great Thanksgiving, everybody. We celebrated early Tuesday because my son-in-law has to work Thursday. This is my favorite holiday, the only one not corrupted by greed and commerce. Just friends and family and memories both bitter and sweet.
And our dogs made out like bandits!
You folks are on the list of things I'm thankful for. The Covid blockade has made on line friends even more special.
Back at ya V – and I echo your sentiments for our fellow polsters. Have a great one everyone.
Happy Thanksgiving all, and Staatsminister Bowman thank you for introducing us to Borgen ! To say we binge watched it was an understatement. My wife and I finished it in ten days.
👍❤️ (and it’s official: there will be another season!)
That's awesome. Can't wait
Happy thanksgiving, everyone. I’m feasting with only one of my kids’ households- and joining a zoom virtual tutorial on my brother-in-law’s legendary cinnamon rolls.
I’m listening to Obama’s “The Promised Land” , and am thankful that we will soon be done with Trump, if not with Trumpism, and have a president who believes in governance.
"we will soon be done with Trump, if not Trumpism…."
I'll go far out on a limb to say that Trump will so busy next year dealing with all sorts of litigation against him that he won't have much time to deal with maintaining "Trumpism."
He has people to do that for him.
Dump will return to his core (in)competency … Making America Great Again … without the threat of impeachment hanging over him.
Trump will not concede. It is his "stolen election" grievance that will fuel his grift.
If he concedes, he will severely damage his ability to raise money.
"he has people to do that for him….." For his sake, hopefully those people will be more competent than the clown posse that was filing his election lawsuits (time for Rudy to retire and Jenna to get a brain).
Happy Distanced Thanksgiving to all!
It’ll be just the two of us this year. I’m doing game hens rather than a giant bird. I already made the dressing; the cranberries are going in that. We’ll still eat too much-I’m not done cooking. Then begins Karen’s annual Christmas movie marathon, from tomorrow through Christmas night. Have a good (small) Thanksgiving everyone.
I’ve been thinking game-hen all day — sold!
. . . so, it’s that, plus Ruth Reichl’s pumpkin soup, a french onion panade, and the sincere hope that I can score a piece of pie from one of the neighbors!
Cinnamon rolls for breakfast . . . wine and mixed drinks throughout the rest of the day.
Ruth Reichl is a (Pumpkin) Goddess.
Looks like Donald is not going to try to upstage Rudy's Gettysburg Address.
Trump Scraps Plan to Attend Giuliani’s Gettysburg Election Event (msn.com)
If they held it at the Four Seasons, he could have stopped next door at Fantasy Island to see if they had anything new featuring Stormy Daniels.
Well, my Mayor is a fucking idiot.
HandonCock is flying to Mississippi for a family Thanksgiving.
Today is Go Fuck Yourself, Dave day.
Karen just showed me that. Man, are people gonna beat him up for it. I don’t get to go across town to my family, but he flies to Mississippi? Dipwit. He’ll deserve what he gets.
Yup. They should ban him from Waffle House…fer sure.
So who becomes mayor if/when Hancock the Hypocrite resigns ?
Didn't he have a video meeting w/ Biden a few days ago? Job hunting?