President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%↑
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd
(D) Adam Frisch
52%↑
48%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
50%
50%
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
December 23, 2010 06:21 PM UTC
74 Comments
but that’s why I love him. Same goes for Ralph.
for lumping me in with Ralphie, who is a jerk in a completely different way than I am.
And you were absolutely correct in your sig-line quoted assessment.
1) Any discussion on “when life begins.”
2) Any discussion on education.
3) The CPs absolute refusal to post the Big Line predictions for 2010.
But, I love you all…with the occasional exception of well, you know who you are.
Refusal to do what?
I asked you to post the Big Line for 2010 and as far as I know, you have not. Did I miss something? As I recall, you were right on only three races – Bennet, Hickenlooper and Pearlmutter…
We can’t leave it up forever, but we have reposted it below in order to assist your apparent need to tell us how wrong we were.
As we’ve always said, The Big Line is our opinion on what we think is happening (and will happen) in Colorado political races. It’s not what we hope will happen, but what we think will happen.
The Big Line is intended for fun and to generate discussion. We’ll say it again: THE BIG LINE IS JUST FOR FUN. It’s not a frickin’ crystal ball.
We’ve pointed out ourselves on many occasions when we were wrong on The Big Line, because we don’t pretend that there is any chance we are going to be correct on everything. If we could accurately predict every political race year in and year out, we sure as hell would be doing something more beneficial with that knowledge than just putting it on a blog.
We have nothing to hide, and certainly nothing to be ashamed about. You are implying some sort of cover up because we haven’t responded to the one person (you, dwyer) who wants to see the last 2010 Big Line again. It certainly looks like you’ve exposed the scandal!
You say that we have been “refusing” to re-post the 2010 Big Line. We were not aware that you have been repeatedly demanding that we re-post the Line. Your demands have been noted, and we will make sure that we read all of your comments from here on out so that we never miss one of your demands again. Our apologies.
Here it is, again, the final Big Line from 2010. We listed 9 races, and we only got 5 of them correct. We suck. We are dumb.
Your demands have been met. Now release the hostages. Or…whatever.
god, you guys are easy. Now for the decoder ring.
I absolutely take no joy in seeing you proved wrong in your predictions. I do believe that, as I have been saying all along, there is an air of denial around so-called progressives or democrats. That “what me worry” (and god, I hope that is not still copyrighted) sentiment helps the right wing because it encourages complacency. I know that the Big Line is only your opinion….but your opinion carries a lot of weight.
I think Buescher in particular, was just coasting and the Big Line reinforced that notion. Cary Kennedy is a tragic loss for the Dems. Tragic.
Now, if you have posted comments explaining why you think your opinion was off in certain races, that would be good too. I don’t see dems or progressives or non-right wing crazies, doing a “what have we learned from the 2010 election”….that would be good too.
PS.
What?! you don’t read everything I post???
Voters will choose to believe whatever they want to believe.
CD6 is as safe an R seat as CD5.
Representative “50%” Tipton is a one-termer.
Corey Gardner was not serious about ending ag
welfaresubsidies.Great Americans like Paul Wellstone, Dennis Kucinich, and Bernie Sanders would not win a statewide race in Colorado. Nor would anyone who shares their politics.
TBL gets so much attention it proves that a real betting site would do well- except for losers who don’t pay.
hmmmmm, that sounds brilliant. Has anyone already done that?
🙂
But here’s a quick recap of what we were thinking with The Big Line as we neared Election Day.
GOVERNOR
We never bought into the fake hype that Tom Tancredo was “gaining” on John Hickenlooper. There never seemed to be a real sense from Hick’s camp that the race was tightening in a meaningful way, and the polls always (silly outliers notwithstanding) had Hickenlooper with a comfortable lead.
U.S. SENATE
We always had Michael Bennet ahead of Ken Buck here because Buck just seemed to inexperienced to handle this big of a race (more than a Senate race, really, because it was one of the 2-3 most-watched races in the country). When Buck started “Buckpedaling” on issue after issue after the Primary, it told us that he wasn’t going to be able to keep it together for an entire campaign — which is kind of what happened.
TREASURER
We had this as essentially a dead-heat, but gave Cary Kennedy the slight edge because she raised good money and was more well-known than Walker Stapleton. Like a lot of people observing Colorado politics, we weren’t sure just how big of a boost Republican candidates were going to get in down-ballot races, and where it would come. Obviously it started here.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
We were bullish on Stan Garnett for a long time, because John Suthers was a weak incumbent with a really bad case in his past (Scott Kimball) that made for compelling TV ads. But Suthers seemed to kick it up a notch in late summer, while Garnett never got the money (either for his campaign or from an independent expenditure) to get the Kimball story the widespread coverage needed to damage Suthers.
SEC. OF STATE
This was perhaps the weirdest of the races on the ballot. We said repeatedly that Scott Gessler was running one of the worst campaigns in recent history, given that his burn rate was nearly 90% every quarter. But we underestimated the downballot Republican effect in this race, and we gave Bernie Buescher too much credit as a campaigner. With any other Republican challenger, this would have been an easier pick to call it for the GOP…but it was just hard to overlook Gessler’s anemic campaign.
CD-3
This one surprised us. Scott Tipton was a horrible candidate in 2006, and he wasn’t much better in 2010. John Salazar clearly got caught with his pants down in this race, but we still thought he had enough time to recover and was well-liked enough in the district to overcome Tipton. We just flat-out called this one wrong.
CD-4
This was another surprise, not because Cory Gardner won, but because of how he won. Betsy Markey had run a strong campaign, and we really thought that the third party candidates were going to combine to pick up about 10-12 points and make this a nail-biter. Obviously that didn’t happen, and we were surprised at just how low the third party candidates performed (especially given that one of them, from the American Constitution Party, had Tancredo helping out at the top of the ticket).
CD-6
No commentary necessary here. Mike Coffman was never in trouble.
CD-7
We never bought into the talk of Ryan Frazier as a potential spoiler for two reasons: 1) Ed Perlmutter is well-liked in the district, and 2) The makeup of CD-7 means that you really need to have a base in Jefferson County to have a shot at winning. Frazier wasn’t all that well-known in his home area of Aurora, never mind out west in Jefferson County. And for the record, we absolutely disagree with pundits who thought that Frazier ran a strong race; in a Republican year, Frazier didn’t just lose, he was crushed. How can you say he ran a good race when he wasn’t even in contention at the end of the day?
OMG, you really think Betsy ran a strong race? I think just the opposite. She ran rebub-lite and it seemed to me that she was aiming for eastern plains – southeast precincts … hardly anyone lives there. If the problem was low D turnout a more positive ‘I’m a D and proud of it’ would have encouraged D turnout and given a boost to her campaign volunteers.
We’d agree that there were some messages that might have seemed “Repub-lite,” as you put it, but Markey had never positioned herself as very liberal.
Tis better to be pissed off, than pissed on.
(Unless of course you’re into that kind of thing)
But I have one.
I hate when people masquerade their feelings on generalities as fact, then when given facts, fight for their feelings as if they have any place in law or policy, all while continuing to pretend that how they feel is some kind of fact that needs to be refuted.
I understand that we all have feelings. I get that. And it doesn’t even bother me when people hold on to those prejudices with all their mental strength. Fine. But just admit they have no relation to anything except you and I’d leave you alone. Not just because I know your mind won’t be changed, but mostly because I can’t pretend to care.
it’s a trap!
as naked self-interest masquerading as moral conviction.
I seem to recall him telling me that the Donkeys would beat the Raiders this year…
Hmmm….
59-14 FAIL
39=23 FAIL
And as always
Denver Broncos… Still Suck!
don’t know what morals are.
don’t know what victories are
Denver Broncos… Still Suck!
…but loves to tweak us lib’ruls by posting the extremist GOP crap here on Pols, and delighting in everyone’s overreaction.
*That Libertad crossed the line in talking smack about my wife, and never ever expressed a crumb of remorse.
*That so many amateur Polsters keep posting their mind-numbingly stupid crap over and over again, without ever realizing that they’ll never be taken seriously.
*As a follow-up, considering how easy it is to use “The Google,” that said amateur Polsters can’t spare a few seconds to either check the crap they’re posting for accuracy, or fact-check their moronic responses against the vast body of free knowledge available on teh interwebz.
*That all the Repubs on this site still think their party gives a shit about Veterans.
*And as a follow-up to that, that so many people in this country think that the wars in Iraq and AFPAK are basically over.
– I resent JO for taking a dump on my diary about an extraordinary tragedy that affected me deeply. BTW, sentencing is January 13th in Denver courtroom 5A for any who are interested.
– I resent DavidTh for couching his naked anti-teacher biases as pro-children when it is clear they are not.
Pretty good year all-in-all. Only two.
For trying to emasculate an effort to provide a quality education for our children by trying to frame it as anti-union.
Thanks David. I was worried I hadn’t pissed anyone off enough here to make their list.
But I figured your post was worth a reply.
you really know how to hurt a guy
Sorry, didn’t know the size of your junk was dependent on how many teachers you got fired. I guess I kind of suspected it was all about swinging your dick around in a metaphorical sense, but I’m surprised to hear it put so literally.
And yes, the contempt you and LB show for unions is transparent, as is the fact that you gave up and ran away from the argument when I reminded you how you have never provided any serious evidence that threatening teachers’ jobs improves student performance. Never. Not once. You can’t even be bothered to read the newspaper articles that contradict your view (instead jumping on a keyword even if the main article supports exactly the opposite of your thesis), which belies your claim to care about kids’ education.
And really, to ruin a joke thread by bringing me into this shit? Low-class. Really low-class.
For whatever reason, you seem to turn anything I say, including even comments I make that are supportive of teachers, into I hate all teachers. So I’ve given up trying to communicate with you.
Oh, and this sub-thread was started by jpsandscl not me. But yes I did bring your name into it.
There are so very few grievances that don’t really piss me off . . .
there’s that, . . . yeah, and . . . oh . . . that SSGDan and some of you others are apparently professionally paid to post on this site, while I spend all the time that I do and am wholly unremunnerated (in the monetary sense). . .
Everyone who posts here gets a stipend from the Soros victory fund. Maybe you should create another account…
not even my sockpuppets are getting paid.
Finally I understand why there’s so many retired folks hanging around here.
Now there is a ink to soros…I knew it, I knew it. Is my time tax-deductible? Sure, as if anyone would tell me.
for first telling me to “put down the bong” and then saying (same reply) that a “policy to mitigate concentration of ownership” is “called capitalism”, or so ally thinks. Maybe you need to pick up a bong. And a dictionary.
SXP epitomizes the badass side of CPols – intelligent, quick-witted, excited to explain why he disagrees with you (why you’re evil, why you’re going to Hell, etc) and he’s UTTERLY vitriolic with his language (worse than Ralphie – and that’s saying something) – in all, of all the haterz on CPols, SXP is the FINEST
And here’s the reason why – SXP REALLY takes it to a new level, because in debates he’s engaged in, he uses the same vitriolic language against the bloggers he’s in AGREEMENT with, as the ones he’s completely against (who are off to “Hell”)
…no one is safe on CPols… SXP guarantees that…
This Festivus is for you, my brother SXP!
For reducing my productivity at work all through November!
refresh refresh refresh
I also resent that I have yet to receive an apology (groveling optional) from any of the people who told me for sure that this was Perlmutter’s last year, Frazier was the face of the future, and so on and so forth. But I’m not too aggrieved about that, since when I feel annoyed I can always just look at the Congressional roster and see “Perlmutter” still listed–as he will be for as long as he wants the seat–which is far, far better than any apology could be.
I dislike when people are so locked in to a belief that they call it fact and any “discussion” becomes calling the other evil incarnate.
“For trying to emasculate an effort to provide a quality education for our children by trying to frame it as anti-union”
🙂
love ya David!
I really do wish you (and SXP) would discuss the impact of poor teachers and how to address it rather than turning it into he must hate all teachers.
Keep in mind I had my 3 daughters go to public school (except for 3 years for one of them). I have a lot of respect for many of their teachers.
You refuse to acknowledge it is anything more than a rant from a teacher and teacher’s union member (of which I’ve told you repeatedly I am neither).
What you fail to acknowledge is that the real discussion is that I think poor teachers will never be eliminated, that performance distribution is both a curve and variable from year to year and for a variety of other factors. I believe the real problems with our schools are systemic and not just the teachers. This is where I disagree with you and which you always refuse to acknowledge because you just want to be snug in your comfortable blanket of denial that people of good conscience can disagree with your remedy without being rabid unionists or unthinking supporters of poor teachers.
First, you don’t think it is possible to eliminate poor teachers. And second, you think if we were able to accomplish such, it would make little to no difference. I disagree with you on both.
I think what we have seen from schools that are successful does show that it can be done and does help. But I will agree that there are other ways you can view what makes successful schools work. We definitely need to keep trying and to measure what has an impact.
As to your view that schools have major systemic problems that cause a lot of the problem, on that issue I think we strongly agree. I think it’s even more important to hold the administrations and districts accountable. I don’t think I’ve ever disagreed with you on this point.
By then my two young sons will be high high school. And we will have instituted no other reforms while we wait to see the efficacy of the reforms of eliminating bad teachers.
But you see it as a systemic problem, the only solution to which you have actually supported is eliminating bad teachers. When do we get to the other parts? Ever? Doesn’t seem like anyone is doing much of anything about them while we castigate our teachers for the failures of our schools.
First off I said 6 years because it will take 2 years to get the new system set up. The CEA lobbied hard for it to have this many steps. I also wish it was faster.
I think it will take 4 years of the new system running to get a fair measure of it’s impact. It takes time to measure a teacher, then step one is to work with them to help them improve, and that also takes time. We then need to measure after the change and that takes time.
But the biggie to speak to your concern, SB-191 does not just hold teachers accountable, it holds principals and administrators accountable too. They too will be measured, and if lacking will be helped to improve. And if they can’t, then they will be replaced with someone better.
I think the new system will bring about a lot of improvement throughout the system.
With that said, I think there is a lot that remains to be done. What I hope they concentrate on next is finding some way to teach parents how key education is to their child’s future. A mom with a cattle prod is the most powerful influence on a child’s success in school (the teacher is second).
So yes, we’re moving forward on some parts, and we now need to move forward on others.
ps – I don’t castigate teachers for the failure of our schools. I do think all will be helped from accurate detailed feedback on their weaknesses. And I do think a few need to find another job. But I also think the majority do a really good job and the superstars have a greater impact on our future than anyone else.
you sure like to talk a lot about me.
Being called a “Little Bitch” IIRC. I am not little. Half the Av’s hockey team would be happy to be my size. And, they might be able to put a block or two inside the red line if they were.
They clearly do not know you, Pam. I’m proud I do — have a great New Year!
Though the language can get more crude than I think called for it is mostly a great place to read and learn.
That being said BJ and Libertad are worthless human beings and were a frequent nuisance. Kind of like a wrinkled sock.
but being a kind of human being of questionable worth myself . . . I totally resent that comparison.
It’s getting late in the afternoon and tomorrow is Christmas Eve so I’ll skip the grievances…not many since I enjoy both the posters I mainly agree with and the back and forth with those I mainly don’t. The ones who don’t do back and forth, just repeat talking points, give us all a chance to vent some hostility, make some fun. So it’s all good, especially learning new things and getting the latest. But it’s time to decouple from the blogs and enjoy the holiday away from the internet tubes. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.
Have a wonderful holiday.
I am aggrieved by the trolls who joined the site for no other reason but to shill for their chosen candidate. I have no problem whatsoever with shilling, but have the balls to stick around after the elections (win or lose).
However, all of this is mitigated by the disappearance of The Beej post-election.
So ….
Caplis & Silverman who suck, but especially Caplis who really, Really sucks
H-Man- for being so certain and strident and …a hack. The worst kind of shill who would write anything in order to weaken, cast doubt or otherwise confront falsely. Liar. And he owes a debt for it.
StrykerK2, Froward, Conductrix, Sharon Hansen, and others – for the same reason. And all the other liars and false witnesses who tried to corrupt the D Senate primary.
Dan Maes for running such an ill conceived campaign. And all the other candidates everywhere who were crappy candidates and ran crappy campaigns. It cheapens us all.
Everyone else who attributed the oil & gas production decline to Colorado’s rules.
Senator Jim Bunning. And every other Senator who used the anonymous hold or abused the filibuster.
Justices Roberts and Alito for Citizens United vs. FEC.
Norm Coleman.
James O”keefe.
David Chestnut.
President George w. Bush, VP Cheney
with all those, 2011 should shape up to be a VERY interesting year with you as FP editor!
🙂
I’m like Santa, only not jolly and the only present is an ass whooping. (I see you)
I looked too. oh, “and others”. Gotcha.
You’ve got nothing on me MADCO, I don’t even owe you any money.
Happy Festivus All!
the other me. He’s a real Beej.
I knew this would be a great thread.
Next up, Feats of Strength.
My own: dropping off Christmas dinner and gifts to our adopted family. Their two-year-old melted me. I cried like a baby.
Your turn.
to realize Christmas really is about the spirit of giving. They had minimal lists for themselves and have been shopping for others (mom mostly) today. It’s a start…
for an early Christmas celebration. Lots of children and noise and food. And a whole lot of me mumbling “Lord, give me strength!”.
is the last of the in-laws.
And she has advanced Alzheimer’s.
I’d give my left nut for one of those old Christmases with the in-laws.
anything all that much of value anyway. ;~)
Merry Christmas!! Insomnia’s a real bitch.
I was referring to the value of Ralphie’s offer. I hadn’t read your comment as an offer to replace that.
Look’s like the deal is off and everyone keeps their own nuts.
that might be the greatest sig line of all time.
I held the luminaire for my nephew’s wife to place along the walk. I even went in to grab more candles, little ones, to replace the candles that were no more. My grand-nephew held my finger in his 10 month old hand – very tight. Next was handing a bottle of wine to my brother, a nice red something, very tasty.
1. JO’s personal attacks (assuming motives / belittling others).
2. Hugh Gidette, the ad (I’m sure Hugh Gidette the blogger is a perfectly fine human being just trying to make a living.)
3. Denver Post’s threats against the blogs. (Kind of sad, really.)
On a brighter note, I can think of only 3 grievances and hundreds of “gratitudes”. Thank you to everyone here who debated politics for yet another year, while keeping things light, interesting, educational and (often) respectful. I wish all of you a very happy holiday season!