The latest batch of ballot counts has been released by the Colorado Secretary of State’s office. Click here for the full update.
As of 12:30 on November 2, 2010
1,211,297 Total Ballots Counted
(There are 3,282,855 total registered voters in Colorado as of Oct. 1, 2010)
– 39% of all registered Democrats
– 52% of “active” Democrats
– 46% of all registered Republicans
– 57% of “active” Republicans”
– 26% of total registered Unaffiliated voters
– 38% of “active” Unaffiliated voters
What are the polling results for how the unaffiliateds have been breaking in the governor’s race?
My Silent Storm Projections as of 12:30pm for Charley Miller Unaffiliated US Senate Colorado
SILENT STORM PROJECTIONS as of 12:30pm Democrats: 53,000 Republicans: 67,000 Unaffiliated: 153,000 273,000 Votes – 23% of Votes Cast – 5%er
Why aren’t you out waving signs on a corner or something?
Charley. Charley. Charley.
Well, have a good night watching the returns come in.
Ari, you’ll be able to find him on the 16th Street Mall fighting Zombies, or registering them to vote, or something.
50% all active voters have submitted a ballot by noon today. (37% of CO registered voters )
active 799,981 33% of all active voters, 75% of al D’s
cast through noon today 419,444
52% of active D’s (39% of all registered D’s)
active 862,575 35% of all active voters, 80% of all R’s
cast through noon today 493,399 (+73,955 than D)
57% of active R’s (46 % of all R’s)
active 757,935 31% of all active voters, 69% of all U’s
cast through noon today 291,152
38% of all active U (26 % of all U)
So D’s are about 5points less active than R’s in general.
And active R’s outnumber active D”s by 62,594.
R’s have cast 73,995 more ballots than D’s through noon today.
Or, approx 5points more compared to active voters.
And almost 12,000 more than the difference between active R’s and active D’s.
If turnout is as expected approx 1.8million, there are going to be 600,000 ballots collected today.
And so far, none of this seems useful to predict the result. Which is why I call it useless trivia.
What would be useful
– exit polls.
The only exit polling I’m aware of (not linked because I think it’s useless) was too small a sample to tell us much and the method was not explained. It showed Bennet leading by 3 or 4points even though 40 or 50,000 more R’s had voted.
– county breakdowns
If we knew that the D or R turnout through noon today indicated a gigantic % of specific counties, that might help predict the remaining D or R turnout.
Despite the attention on the CO U’s, the senate race will be won or lost by demographic. If the under 35 voters turnout, Bennet wins, if not Buck wins. If certain ethnicities turnout,.. etc.
So there is one thing that the turnout through noon today does tell us. SOS should release pretty meaningful numbers within the first hour of polls closing.
Recount seems unlikely in the Senate race. 1/2 of 1% of 900,000 is 4500 and the margin will be bigger than that, but unless there is a really large spread (200,000) in the first release – we won’t know early.
Only counties with vote centers (as opposed to precinct polling places) are reporting turnout at the polls during the day today, so major counties aren’t included in the noon update.
Also, the recount is triggered if the margin is 1/2 of 1 percent of total votes cast in that race, so the denominator will probably be in the 1.8 million range. So if the margin between Buck and Bennet is less than 9,000, we’re in recount territory. That’s not out of the question.
difference great than 1/2 of 1 % between total votes cast for the leader, and the second highest vote getter. Or sometihng like that.
So subtract out both of charley’s votes, and a few thousand for Green and Libertarian, and you’re still dividing by about 1.8 million.
so a near tie would mean close to 900,000 for the top vote getter.
And 1/2 of 1% s 4500.
That is shameful!
Or am I judging too early? What is the usual breakout for registered voters before noon on election day and at the close of voting?
I hope most of 2 million voters will jam the polls between now and 7pm!
isn’t complete. It doesn’t include everyone who voted this morning in counties that don’t have vote centers. And there’s a reason a lot of those names are inactive — a lot of them don’t live in Colorado anymore.
Jeffco is leading the way with over 56% of its voters having returned mail ballots or voted early. The stunning number is that 45% of unaffiliates have voted as opposed to 38% state wide. A big swing. As stated, if the Dems are even close in Jeffco, they win.
The Democratic GOTV is the worst I have ever seen
Door hangers lacking names or polling places.
An over reliance on phone calls and robo calls instead of knocking on doors.
These early numbers are not at all good.
Back to the streets.
Why the Dems didn’t put the polling place on the VOTE door hangers, or at least tell their volunteers to do so is beyond me. That’s what I did and it was EXTREMELY effective.
It really bothers me to see Dems screw up simple, but critical, tasks.
at 8:38 a.m. on election day when the polls open at 7 a.m., the Bennet bus was still parked and unoccupied in the Wells Fargo Bank parking lot off Colorado Boulevard near Alameda.
Whatever fundraising prowess and brains Bennet has, he certainly isn’t the community organizer/experienced campaigner that either Obama or Romanoff were, and alas, doesn’t seem to have picked up a campaign staff leadership with enough of those instincts either.
I have just as many DEM going over as REP and most UNA will be here. In 2008, the UNA shift made the difference. If you think Norton and Romanoff voters are gonna stomach the Buck n’ Bennet circus, you better ask them, first.
I am conservative in saying I see a 15-18% shift to UNA and I certainly don’t see 48% of UNA going over to Buck or Bennet. Again, I could be wrong.
I will see if spending hours with farmers in 59 counties, hours with the urban poor and “hardly working” in the largest of the five counties, or being able to stand with over 70,000+ people of Colorado toe-to-toe, face-to-face, eye-to-eye with everyone from unemployed ex-6 figure losing my homers, to lgbqt, to the religious right, all the pro and anti this and that, our seniors, our vets and all most of all the people of Colorado, and the rest will matter. I hope so.
I still believe in the American political system and I certainly resent those who attempt to buy the office. We only have to glance at California to see that mess.
Does anyone think that Larry Sabato is not only often wrong but leans waaay to the Right and is allowed to set the TV – Network & Cable – meme waaaay too much?
Every election season I get more suspicious of him.
For example, this appears to be his prediction in 2008 ( http://www.centerforpolitics.o… )
How did that work out?
From wikipedia( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U… ):
Am I missing something or does Larry really get a lot of attention that he doesn’t deserve?
just stop it, and go back to playing World Of Warcraft…
This is only about 200,000 election day morning votes, which means that it is fairly unlikely that the anticipated 600,000-800,000 more votes will materialize at the end of the day. And, low turnout is bad for Democrats.