Primary Results Portend GOP Wipeout in November

The 2020 Primary Election is now behind us (except for those few races that may need a recount). If you are a Democrat, you should be ecstatic. If you are a Republican, you might want to go into hibernation until 2022.

Let’s take a step back and examine the view of the 2020 Primary from 30,000 feet (or what you remember the view to look like from 30,000 feet, since nobody is going to be on an airplane anytime soon).

Lesson #1: Republicans Who are Known Entities Were Roundly Rejected 

Rep. Scott Tipton

Even Republican voters are sick of the current batch of Republicans. Take a look at this brief list of well-known Republicans who were shown the door on Tuesday:

♦ Six-term Congressman Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) — who was endorsed by President Trump — lost to QAnon true believer Lauren “Yosemite Samantha” Boebert.

♦ State Sen. Vicki Marble (R-Firestone) lost her campaign to return to the State House…by 30 points.

♦ Former State Rep. Justin Everett was handily defeated by Rep. Colin Larsen in South Jeffco.

This list does not (yet) include State Rep. Lori Saine (R-Firestone), who will likely need to wait for a recount to see if she won her race for an open seat on the Weld County Board of Commissioners.

 

Lesson #2: Pat Neville and RMGO Failed Everywhere

GOP House Minority Leader Patrick Neville

House Minority Leader Patrick Neville “led” Republicans to a beatdown in 2018. His preferred Primary candidates in 2020, most of whom were supported with tens of thousands of dollars from Rocky Mountain Gun Owners (RMGO), were all soundly defeated:

HD-22: Justin Everett, a longtime Neville/RMGO loyalist, tried to retake his old House seat with a disgusting far-right message. He lost to Rep. Colin Larsen by 12 points.

HD-48: Two-time loser Grady Nouis lost by 12 points to Tonya Van Beber. Voters were apparently not impressed with the fact that Nouis is basically a Nazi.

HD-63: Neville and RMGO liked them some Pat Miller, who was Tom Tancredo’s running mate for Governor back in 2010. Dan Woog beat Miller by 25 points. (Fun Fact: This is Cory Gardner’s original State House seat)

SD-23: In one of the nastier Primary battles of 2020, RMGO spent big bucks trying to prop up Rupert Parchment against former County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer. This race was also not close, with Kirkmeyer winning by about 12 points.

 

Lesson #3: Cory Gardner is in DEEP Trouble

Sen. Cory Gardner

Lessons #1 and #2 would be scary enough for Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma), who is seeking re-election in November, but that’s not even the worst of it.

Prepping for former Gov. John Hickenlooper to defeat former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic Senate Primary, Gardner’s campaign sent out a rambling, ridiculous memo on Tuesday afternoon (“Cory Gardner Isn’t Dead Yet Probably”) arguing that Hickenlooper was the “worst senate candidate in America” and that a Democratic voter registration advantage in Colorado is “nonsense.”

A few hours later, Hickenlooper beat Romanoff by 20 points.

Last August, Hickenlooper was polling at about 61% support in a potential Democratic Primary. He’s going to end up winning the Primary with about 60% of the vote…after Republicans spent $2 million in negative ads attacking Hickenlooper for ethics charges and a hard-to-understand public-private partnership “scandal.”

Re-read that last paragraph. Republicans (and Romanoff) spent many millions of dollars over several weeks trying to tear down Hickenlooper. They might have moved the race about one point in the end.

Colorado voters saw and heard about the ethics complaints against Hickenlooper; either they didn’t buy it, or they didn’t care. Gardner used a silly commercial to try to convince voters that Hickenlooper didn’t really want to be a Senator; that didn’t work, either.

Gardner has been a hot mess in the last 24 hours (more on that in a later post). If we were Gardner, we’d absolutely be freaking out today, too.

 

The 2020 Primary Election went worse for Republicans than observers — including us — could have even imagined. Today is the first day of the 2020 General Election in Colorado. It’s going to be a LONG couple of months for the GOP.

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20 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. RepealAndReplace says:

    All of this plus Trump at the top of the ticket …….

     

  2. unnamed says:

    What I find funny, in legislative primaries for Republicans, the more moderate and sane (in some cases, those terms are relative) candidates won the primaries, but in CO-03, the certifiable whack job won.

  3. FGBonfils says:

    Not to mention Cory will have to defend the positions of his fellow GOP congressional candidate QAnnie Oakley.

  4. ParkHill says:

    Basically, we have three parties, Wacko Republicans (Racists, Christianist, Gun-nuts), Centrist Democrats and Progressive Democrats. The collapse in Republicans has been Moderate Republicans turning into Unaffiliateds. (Mainstreet Business Republicans are really a minimal number, which is why they cobble together the racist-christian-NRA coalition.)

    This is not ALL good news.

    We don't want the Republican Party to collapse entirely. Otherwise, we'll get Republicans coming over to participate in Democratic Party politics. 

    • Conserv. Head Banger says:

      @ParkHill: why would you paint Mainstreet Republicans as “racist-christian-NRA” types?

      Are you saying that Mainstreet Republicans belong in your Wacko category?

      • Gilpin Guy says:

        I have friends who are Main Street Republicans.  My mom was a Main Street Republican.  She was the sweetest, most compassionate person you will ever meet but since she lived alone for a number years, she would have Fox News on whenever I dropped by.  Always like always.  My dad was a Main Street Republican who would have been a Never Trumper.  He would have hated the racial bigotry.  Unfortunately the two I can name are deceased and the rest of the relatives are cult members and shunned when it comes to politics.  I don't want to talk to them about it because I don't want to evaluate them as Trumpers.

      • Diogenesdemar says:

        Face it CHB, the street on which you once lived has left the neighborhood and moved to places unrecognizable . . . 

        . . . your current neighborhood was rezoned, then condemned, and is soon to be completely leveled to build a brand new reality off-ramp.

        You have been keeping up with all those public notices?

        Ike ain’t coming back . . .

        • Conserv. Head Banger says:

          Dio: seems like you have yet to figure out that I march to the beat of my own drummer. As for Ike, I have a couple of I Like Ike campaign buttons somewhere. But I was just a kid in those years. 

          But never fear. Better days are ahead and will begin to re-emerge after Putin's boy-toy loses in November.

          • Diogenesdemar says:

            Then we’re in agreement, . . .

            . . . today’s Republican Mainstreet is a place where you ain’t.   wink

          • RepealAndReplace says:

            I hate to rain on your parade, CHB, but after Putin's boy-toy leaves, all hell is going to break loose in the GOP.

            The Establishment GOP (Bush family, Mitt Romney) will try to regain control of the party but even without Trump, there are plenty of Trump Wannabes who will pick up the mantle of racism and xenophobia and offer to lead the Deplorables and the Irredeemables in the next campaign.

            The only question is whether the GOP is worth fighting over.

            • ParkHill says:

              Yes. That IS the question. 

              Can the GOP be resurrected? It won't be in three days?

              Aside from the difficulties you raise, the Republican Party is a name, a brand, an infrastructure and an allegiance. While it needs to die (for lots of reasons), the establishment can't very easily create a new Party because they'll lose all that branding and infrastructure.

              • kwtreekwtree says:

                Parties do rebrand themselves…modern Republicans love to remind us all that Republican and Democratic parties switched sides on slavery and civil rights. Dems were the pro-slavery party, Republicans the “ anti”.

                Someone who has studied more of that history than me, tell us how that happened, how painful it was, and how long it took. 

  5. JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

    PARTISAN VOTING

    Senate Race — 1,421,183 votes

    House Races — 1,285,150 votes

    For contrast, the 2020 Presidential priary

  6. MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

    Otherwise, we'll get Republicans coming over to participate in Democratic Party politics. 

    I left the Republican party in 2009 after a couple of decades as a member. Anyone paying attention then knew this day was coming.  I'd encourage any common sense pragmatist from the party of Lincoln to do the same thing.  I do believe we need a strong, two-party system but I don't see a pathway for that on the horizon. I appreciate CHB's loyalty and his core convictions – but I'm not as optimistic as he may be about the return of the 'small c' conservatives driving the party agenda anytime soon. 

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