More on The Hill’s CD-4 Poll

In a poll released today by The Hill, 11 of 12 House Democrats are trailing Republicans, and while we can’t tell you more in the way of analyzing the results for other races, we can postulate some ideas on the CD-4 polling results. We mentioned this poll briefly in an earlier post, but the significance of these numbers are worth their own subject.

To make it easier to read, we produced a condensed version of the initial crosstab results from The Hill polling. These results below answer the question: “If the elections for Congress were held today, which candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?”

We’ve written before that any poll in CD4 must ask about all four candidates in order to be considered completely accurate, but any way you slice it, this is good news for Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey and bad news for Republican challenger Cory Gardner.

The only other public poll released in CD-4 (which came in early September) showed Gardner with an 11-point lead over Markey. We questioned the accuracy of that poll, just as we question the accuracy of today’s poll, because neither included American Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden nor Independent candidate Ken “Wasko” Waszkiewicz (more on that in a minute). But even if you forget the third-party candidates, Markey has closed the gap from being 11 points down to now being within the margin of error and behind just three points (41-44). More importantly, Markey has the advantage over Gardner with both Independent voters (43-39) and Senior Citizens (43-40). Also notable is that Markey attracts the support of 11% of Republicans, while just 2% of Democrats expressed support for Gardner.

Now, back to that third-party thing. Colorado is showing a proclivity for voting in higher numbers for third-party candidates in 2010, and CD-4 has always been more fond of third-party choices than elsewhere in the state. If Aden and “Wasko” had been included in this poll, it’s very possible that Markey might be leading the race at this point. In fact, the only poll that included all four candidates that has been released (a Markey internal poll) showed Wasko and Aden pulling a combined 7 percent of the vote, with Markey and Gardner tied at 38 percent apiece.

With mail ballots beginning to drop in the next week, Markey is clearly trending in the right direction. We’ve always said this race is a toss-up, but if you had to bet on it today, you’d have a hard time talking yourself into Gardner.

41 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Aggie says:

    That is a barn burner up there for sure. I think you might be right Cpols, Markey is heading in the right direction.  

    If Markey wins this year, I bet she has will have the seat locked up until at least 2014.  

  2. Ellie says:

    Without them it is so much conjecture, particularly this election cycle.

  3. reubenesp says:

    Oct. 5

    Misleading.  Despicable.  Vicious.

    This morning TWO vicious Karl Rove style attack ads went up on TV against me.

    This is Karl Rove style politicking at its finest: barrage my record with despicable ads and never let the voters know how extreme Cory Gardner is.

    My opponent has the money for these vicious attacks because of the fundraiser Karl Rove held for him in Aspen a few weeks ago.  He is taking money from the same shadow donors Karl Rove knows so well and now he’s using the same campaign tactics.

    I have to fight back, but to do that I need another $30,000 in my Rapid Response Fund by midnight Friday.  Help make sure the Karl Rove style attack ads don’t go unanswered.  Your donation of 15.00 is urgently needed before Friday.

    We don’t have much time to fight back – only 28 days.  It is critical that we show attacker-in-chief Karl Rove and his band of merry men that his handpicked right-wing radical Cory Gardner is the wrong fit for Colorado’s families.  By the end of this week we must have the resources to counter their vicious attacks.

    Click here to help raise another $30,000 into my Rapid Response Fund before Friday night.  Make sure the Karl Rove style attack ads don’t go unanswered by donating 15.00 today.

    Thank you,

    Betsy Markey

    P.S.  The Karl Rove style attack ads started this morning and I need your help to fight them.  Can you help me raise another $30,000 into my Rapid Response Fund by Friday?  Your donation of 15.00 is urgently needed.

  4. 20th Maine says:

    but any way you slice it, this is good news for Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey and bad news for Republican challenger Cory Gardner.

    You guys can “postulate” the shit out of this, it doesn’t change the blatant facts staring you right in the face.

    More quotes from Pols affiliate in the Baghdad Information Ministry right after Americans invaded Iraq:

       “Be assured. Baghdad is safe, protected”

       “Who are in control, they are not in control of anything – they don’t even control themselves!”

       “We are not afraid of the Americans.  Allah has condemned them.  They are stupid.  They are stupid” (dramatic pause) “and they are condemned.”

       “We have destroyed 2 tanks, fighter planes, 2 helicopters and their shovels – We have driven them back.”  

    • Voyageur says:

      Then you are going to be deleriously happy with the election night results, 20M

      • 20th Maine says:

        is going to win.  And the data backs me up.  Though around here, if he doesn’t win by double digits than it’s not considered a success by the politerati on this site.

        You can keep your postulations.

      • H-man says:

        Let me help you.

        Because she has lost.

        • colawman says:

          Because they recognize Markey has no chance. They are moving their money to take on Salazar!  But, I’m sure the libs on Coloradopols know better than the two national parties.  It is going to be a great November for the minority party on Bennetspol.

          Uh-oh do I get banned or suspended for crossing some line at Bennetspol?

          • dlof says:

            When the DCCC cancels ads, it’s because the Dem is going to lose.  But, when the NRCC cancels ads, it’s because the Dem is going to lose.  Do I get that right?

            I grant you that this may be the case.  But, given the total lack of any justification from either group, I think you guys may be projecting your desires on these facts.

            And, just out of curiosity, and forgive me if things started this week – I haven’t seen a TV since Monday, when did the NRCC start running ads to support Gardner?  I’ve TiVo’d a lot of TV in the past few weeks and have yet to see a non-Rove ad from the GOP targeting this race.

            You guys are that sure?

    • Colorado Pols says:

      One month ago, Gardner was up 11 points. Today he is up 3 points. Either Markey is gaining ground, or Gardner is losing ground (or, more likely, both). But those are facts. Those facts are good news for Markey and bad news for Gardner.

      We didn’t say that this means Markey is going to win the race. We just said these poll numbers are good news for Markey and bad for Gardner. There’s nothing untrue about that statement.

  5. bjwilson83 says:

    Here he thought he was the conservative, but it turns out Markey is. All voters, of course, buy this. With Markey down in the polls, she’s still winning. Yep, it’s all over.

  6. 20th Maine says:

    From Hotline:

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj

    With less than four weeks left to Election Day, the DCCC is reshuffling where it plans to air ads in the final weeks of the campaign – a key indicator of the its candidates’ strength in key battleground states.

    According to ad buy data confirmed by both Democratic and Republican sources, the DCCC has reduced its ad reservations for the second to last week of the campaign – Oct. 19 to Oct. 29 – in eight districts, seven of which are held by Democrats. In a few of the districts, Democratic sources insist that the changes were made from a position of strength. But in most, the reductions are a sign that Democrats are facing increasingly long odds.

    The changes underscore the challenge facing the DCCC this year in deciding how to allocate its resources in what seems to be an ever expanding playing field. The changes show that the DCCC is trying to be as tactical as possible, allowing themselves the flexibility to shift money in the final week of the campaign.

    As with all ad reservations, it is worth keeping mind that these numbers are fluid; they can change right up until ads are planned to air.

    The DCCC has shaved the size of its ad reservations in 6 districts where Democrats are running behind their Republican challengers in polls. These include CO 04, where Rep. Betsy Markey has consistently trailed state Rep. Cory Gardner (R)…

  7. ohwilleke says:

    isn’t that deep of a flaw in the poll, given the cross-tabs.

    First, history tends to show that incumbents with less than 50% support in polling tend not to win.  One can argue that the rule doesn’t apply to Bennet with full force because he hasn’t run an election campaign in the state before this election.  But, there is no reason to think that Markey is exempt from that tendency in CD-4 where she has run and won an election already.  

    The likelihood that she will get a greatly disproportionately high share of the 1% who indicate that they favor a third party candidate, or the 14% who claim to be undecided at this point, seems low.

    Second, Markey is leading Gardner by only four percentage points among independent voters.  This simply isn’t enough in a district where the registered voter and likely voter pools lean heavily in the R direction.  She needs a stronger lead than four percentage points among independent voters to win, even if Gardner bleeds some of his Republican support to the two third party candidates.

    Honestly, Markey is doing exceedingly well by falling to within a statistical tie of Gardner in this poll.  She is picking up far more Republican voters than he is picking up Democratic voters, both on a percentage basis, and to an even larger extent in raw numbers of voters (since Republicans outnumber Democrats in CD-4).  There is no way that a generic Democrat could do that well in that district.

    It also is to her advantage that the groups with the most undecided voters are women and seniors, who favor her by a few percentage points.  But, even if Markey is fortunate enough for undecided voters break according to the rest of the people in their demographic, rather than being more likely to break against her than those who are already decided (and the undecided percentage seems awfully high for voters who have been facing relentless campaigning and are about a week away from getting their ballots), they are too evenly divided for that to shift the balance decisively in her favor.

    The bottom line is that if Markey runs on autopilot doing what she has been doing so far in the campaign (which has been vigorous and expensive so far) and if she does a respectable job of getting out the vote, she still loses by a nose in a valiant effort that is a good showing for a Democrat in the district, but not enough.

    Unless Markey can come up with something that decisively shifts independent and undecided voters in her favor at the tail end of the campaign, Cory Gardner is going to win.

    Markey still has a realistic chance of winning.  It would take something remarkable to happen in this campaign for her to win, but it wouldn’t take a miracle.  Still, her odds of winning are definitely below 50-50.  She is now the underdog in this race.  The Big Line odds for Markey and Gardner are roughly backwards given what we know at this point.

    What is bad news for Markey, is good news for Bennet, however.  If her race in one of the more conservative districts in the state is that close, then Bennet, probably has a relatively decent chance against Ken Buck.  Bennet still has room to grow his name ID during the campaign and the money to do that.  His polling is probably still hurting from not getting full Democratic support in polling from former Romanoff supporters who are sore, a factor that will probably fade away when it comes time to vote.  And, Bennet is running statewide which means the he faces a less conservative electorate than Markey does.  Ken Buck is the kind of candidate that the 4th CD would love, but who isn’t a good match for the entire state, and if Bennet can simply communicate that message, he has some room to gain ground in this election relatively effortlessly.

    • Ralphie says:

      If only because it doesn’t poll the actual environment.

      What good is a poll that doesn’t poll the actual environment?

    • Seldom says:

      The 4th District has proved numerous times that 3rd Party candidates can and will pull significant percentages of the vote in the district.  

      A poll that does not include the option of the 3rd Party candidates does not accurately represent the voting choices many people will have to evaluate.  The vast majority of people are not following the race too closely and may not know that there are viable 3rd Party Candidates on the ballot.  When they are informed of that – on the ballot or during a poll – the voting tendencies will change drastically.

    • dlof says:

      Ohwilleke, I know we agree, but you’re very wrong.  Betsy has this race.  Don’t care what the polling says.

      • The NRA Endorsed Betsy – making GOPers mad
      • We’ve seen very few polls in a district where the GOP should have an advantage, so IMHO the dearth of polls is a bad indicator for Gardner
      • Betsy has outraised Gardner significantly
      • I have it on good authority that her Q3 number is good, and that she won’t need the DCCC
      • Gardner’s “keep your head down” strategy is weak.
      • The two 3rd Party candidates will take 7% combined, mostly from Gardner.

      How about a friendly wager.  Dinner at Hick’s old place (Wynkoop), loser (of the bet) buys drinks.  Betsy by 8.

      • colawman says:

        Before you go betting you might want to check out the disparity betweeen registered Dems and Reps in Weld and Larimer.

        In a climate where the economy and jobs are paramount, you think an NRA endorsement is going to carry the day? But since you mentioned it; how is it that making the GOPers mad will somehow translate into a victory? Would your premise not suggest the GOPers would turn out to express their anger?

        Betsy won’t need the DCCC?  I doubt that Betsy was jumping for joy when she heard she was losing their financial support.

        On the flip side I am sure Gardner was not leaping for joy when he lost his national support.  

        • dlof says:

          Of course it’s not going to carry the day, but it says something interesting that a fairly-GOP-dominated organization is going to endorse Betsy, despite the dearth of actual relevant votes in the House.  Sure, I’m reading things into this, maybe.  It’s what we do here, no?

          But, really, Reg numbers?  CD-4’s been a predictable animal for a bunch of years.  A Dem can/should win if she can limit losses in Weld, and run the score up a bit in Larimer and Boulder, registration aside.  I grant you that this is a tall order, but as I told my friend Amy Oliver (whom you might know), I kinda think the GOP is Weld (at least) was drinking the Kool-Aid about the wave, and calling this in the bag, far before it was prudent to do so.

          But, in relation to your candidate, how does it feel to have as a nominee, a guy who was an engaged Democrat, giving nominating speeches against Bob Schaffer less than 10 years ago?  If that’s not the kind of “in-it-for-myself” politics that the Tea Party is railing against, then I don’t know what it.  

  8. colawman says:

    to be welcome additions to the GOP. They have been in the belly of the beast and have come to the realization the Democratic Party has been hijacked.  Dick Morris, for all of his warts, has become a successful critic of the progressives who stole the Democratic Party.

    You only have to frequent this site for a few weeks to realize that it is overly populated with the extreme progressive wing of the Democratic Party. I guess that is why I am so adamantly opposed to the Democrats. My fervor is driven by the extremists who are avowed Socialists, albeit subversive.

    Democrats are tolerable the Socialists within the Democratic Party are anything but tolerable.  

    • dlof says:

      WTF is that?  You sound like H-Man or BJ, with this moronic tripe.

      • colawman says:

        Let me turn the table on you so you get WTF I mean. Do you find Republicans tolerable?

        • dlof says:

          Let me use as an example, my friend Amy Oliver (1310 KFKA, Independence Institute).  I disagree with wide swaths of the things she says and believes.  But  having a beer and chatting about politics with her is a fine thing to do.

          I would argue that, under your current definition, that I am a socialist.  And given the meaning of the word, I’m reasonably proud to be one.

          Or were you hoping I would tell you that I blanket despise Conservatives?

    • Ralphie says:

      How many “reformed Democrats” have you got?

      Just curious.

      I’m a “reformed Democrat” but you don’t have me.  If you want me, you’ll have to earn me.

      So you really think Dick Morris is credible?  As I recall, he was run out of Democratic politics when he was outed by a prostitute he frequented.

      I guess that makes him qualified to be a Republican.  What say you?

      • colawman says:

        Fox has their Morris (with warts) and CNN has their Spitzer (with warts). Notice Morris was a Democrat when he got busted!  Same thing with Spitzer! Morris could very well be a “John” who has got his act together on this election.

        If you are indeed a reformed Dem, I take back all the ugly things I said about you.

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