September 27, 2010 05:50 PM UTC

Federal Races: Week in Review, week ending Sept 26

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• by: H-man

United States Senate

This week there was a new poll performed for CNN/Time http://www.realclearpolitics.c…  The poll shows Buck leading Bennet 49 to 44, up slightly from last week’s Rasmussen poll which had Buck leading 49 to 44.  Of the four most recent likely voter model polls, Buck has polled 49% and Bennet has topped out at 45%.

Nate Silver at the New York Times has increased Buck’s chances from 72% to 76%. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n… Silver has this seat the sixth seat which would change hands and he has upped his projected Senate makeup from 53-47 to 52-48. There were no changes from Sabato or Cook on this race and there were no debates this week.

On the campaign trail, Bennet continues to try to hit Buck on the social issues and Buck continues to hit Bennet on his voting record.  Local pollster, Floyd Ciruli, was asked about his reaction to the effectiveness of Bennet’s attack ads:

Last week, the Bennet campaign launched an ad hitting Buck over his anti-abortion stance, marking a rare instance of politicking on social issues in this electoral cycle.

. . .

Ciruli, the Colorado pollster, said that the decision to air the abortion ad suggested that the Bennet campaign sensed that it was losing ground against Buck, as recent polls have indicated.

“The Democrats are thinking that this is a two-point race at most for them — that is to say they’re going to lose it by five or win it by one or two, and that one or two could be unaffiliated women on abortion,” Ciruli said. “Buck’s ability to withstand this just amazes me — I thought for sure he’d be one or two points down.”    http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

Local pollster, Eric Sondermann, suggest why the Dem “Buck is an extremist” label may not be sticking:

“Buck is one of these guys that is sort of on the cusp,” Sondermann said. “The Democrats want to make him into the next Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle or Rand Paul, but the shoe doesn’t entirely fit. Yes, he won the primary with the same base of support, but he probably has more IQ points than some of those people; he’s a Princeton grad, and he’s played the establishment game to some extent before.”

Sondermann said that Buck is trying to portray himself as a conservative within the bounds of the Colorado mainstream — in the vein of former Republican Senator Wayne Allard — and has not been prone to the kinds of easy-to-ridicule statements that O’Donnell, Angle and Paul have had to walk back.

CD-4

Cory Gardner is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 79%, up from 72% last week.  The seat is listed as the 171st most Republican in the country and if 17-19 seats change hands it is one of the likely seats to switch.  The Times has the Republican majority makeup of seats in the new House changing from 223-212 to 224-211.

There was no new polling last week.   Cory Gardner received the endorsement of Sarah Palin. There was a fundraiser of note in Aspen for Cory Gardner as well as the Republican candidates in CD-3 and CD-7 featuring Karl Rove.

CD-3

Scott Tipton is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 59% up from 56% the week before.  The seat is listed as the 184th most Republican in the country and if 38 seats change hands, it is likely to be among the seats to switch.

There was no new polling last week.  Scott Tipton received the endorsement of Sarah Palin and was also part of the fundraiser featuring Karl Rove.

CD-7

Ed Perlmutter is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 75% up from 74% last week.  The seat is listed as the 156th most Democratic in the country.  In order for it to switch it is estimated that the Republicans would need to pick up 67-69 seats, down from 70.  There are currently about 100 seats in play.

There was no new polling this week.  Ryan Frazier was part of the Aspen fundraiser.   He also received favorable press in an article in the Washington Post on independent voters which featured Commerce City, part of his district. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

The conservative blog, People’s Press Collective is suggesting that Perlmutter’s involvement with an investment in, and legislation concerning, green banks may become an issue in the campaign. http://www.peoplespresscollect…

My read is that CD-7 will see some movement with Frazier up with an ad and significant funding on the way and likely replace the Tipton/Salazar race as the closest race.