September 20, 2010 05:33 PM UTC

Federal Races: Week in Review

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• by: H-man

( – promoted by ClubTwitty)

United States Senate

There was one poll out last week by Rasmussen  http://www.rasmussenreports.co… showing the race as Buck 49%; Bennet 45%; others 3%, undecided 3%.

Nate Silver at the New York Times gives Buck a 72% chance of taking the seat and he projects that the make-up of the new Senate will be 53 Dems and 47 Republicans.

Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics of the University of Virginia has the seat as leaning Republican.  He thinks the Republicans will have either 48 or 49 Senators next year.  He was out in Colorado recently and made this observation:

Colorado Senate: After a visit last week, it’s more obvious than ever that the Republicans have completely blown their good opportunity to win the state governorship. Their tarnished nominee, Dan Maes, has been abandoned by just about everyone in the party after revelations about his past, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R) is splitting what remains of the GOP vote by running as an independent. As we have said for some time, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) is the unofficial Governor-elect. But what we picked up was interesting. Like many competitive Purple states, Colorado wants to send the Democrats a message. Since they cannot do it for Governor, they appear more likely to pay the postage in the Senate race, by supporting Republican nominee Ken Buck, a Tea Party candidate, against appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Several sharp political observers in the Centennial State pointed this out to us. An odd psychology may be at work. It’s still a very close race, though.

http://www.centerforpolitics.o…

Charlie Cook has the seat rated as a toss-up and The fix at the Washington Post has the seat as the seventh most likely seat to switch parties.

On the endorsement front, Ken Buck received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.  He also received ad new buys on his behalf from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.  Bennet has been receiving ad buys on his behalf from the National Democratic Senatorial Committee.  Buck also received new ad buys on his behalf from the Club for Growth.

On the trail last week, the second debate took place in Colorado Springs.  Buck had the better of the audience, the debate was informative and seen by me as a draw.

CD-4

Cory Gardner is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 72%.  The seat is listed as the 171st most Republican in the country and if 20 seats change hands it is in the 20 most likely seats to switch.  The Times has the Republicans picking up 45 seats in the House.

Betsy Markey received the endorsement of the NRA last week.

CD-3

Scott Tipton is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 56%.  The seat is listed as the 184th most Republican in the country and if 42 seats change hands, Nate projects 45 will, it is likely to be among the seats to switch.

John Salazar received the endorsement of the NRA last week.  Scott Tipton was named a “Top Gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee which will likely translate to them spending about $400,000 to $500,000 on his behalf.

CD-7

Ed Perlmutter is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 74%.  The seat is listed as the 156th most Democratic in the country.  In order for it to switch it is estimated that the Republicans would need to pick up 72 seats.  There are currently about 100 seats in play.

Ryan Frazier received the endorsement of the NRA last week.  He was also named a “Top Gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee which will likely translate to them spending about $400,000 to $500,000 on his behalf.

My read is that CD-7 will see some movement with Frazier up with an ad and significant funding on the way and likely replace the Tipton/Salazar race as the closest race of the four which are perceived as being in play as things move down the stretch.