September 06, 2010 10:32 PM UTC

"Triage" Inevitable, But Markey's Obituary Far from Written

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• by: Colorado Pols

As the New York Times reported Saturday, much to the delight of local Republicans hoping to keep up with this “wave year,” some hard decisions await Democratic strategists. Everybody knows it.

In the next two weeks, Democratic leaders will review new polls and other data that show whether vulnerable incumbents have a path to victory. If not, the party is poised to redirect money to concentrate on trying to protect up to two dozen lawmakers who appear to be in the strongest position to fend off their challengers.

“We are going to have to win these races one by one,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, conceding that the party would ultimately cut loose members who had not gained ground.

With the midterm campaign entering its final two months, Democrats acknowledged that several races could quickly move out of their reach, including re-election bids by Representatives Betsy Markey of Colorado, Tom Perriello of Virginia, Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio and Frank Kratovil Jr. of Maryland, whose districts were among the 55 Democrats won from Republicans in the last two election cycles…

Every election year around Labor Day, the inevitable discussion begins–focused on whichever party is on the defensive–of which candidates are considered sufficiently viable to justify continued investment from the national party in their race. In 2008, the departure of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) signaled the death knell of Bob Schaffer’s run against Mark Udall. Already this year, the pullout of funding by the Republican Governor’s Association from Colorado as the GOP’s gubernatorial hopes collapsed was a story all by itself. And there’s no question that Democrats must take a hard look at races around the country, and assess where there money will make a difference–and where it won’t.

So Betsy Markey is done for, right?

There’s no delusion in Democratic circles: freshman Rep. Markey faces one of the toughest challenges of any Democratic incumbent in Colorado. Running in a GOP-plurality district, and at the top of many hit lists, Markey’s race is already the subject of heavy spending by conservative message groups and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Nervous at the historical threat posed by third-party candidates in this district, even Tom Tancredo has been persuaded to stop disparaging Cory Gardner, which Tancredo eagerly took to earlier this summer after Gardner’s ill-starred flirtation with Rep. Steve King, and Tancredo has not endorsed the candidate running in CD-4 on his own American Constitutional Party ticket, Doug Aden.

But despite the challenge facing Markey, we can report with confidence that neither local Democrats nor the national party apparatus have in any way ruled Markey’s race unwinnable. For one thing, Markey has steered a middle course, both in her voting record as well as her campaign exposure, and efforts by the GOP to link her with the Obama administration’s perceived unpopularity rely on generalities that Markey’s campaign has known from the beginning they would have to refute–and they intend to. You won’t see Barack Obama campaigning in CD-4 this fall, but you can expect to hear about every vote Markey has made that made Rahm Emanuel wince. This doesn’t mean Markey is going to run against the administration; it just means that she will offer a more qualified defense of Democratic policy since she was elected, and highlight where and why she has differed. Putting aside the sweeping irrational rhetoric of the “Tea Party,” this may well be a message that works in CD-4 with the independent voters she needs to keep her seat.

But by far the biggest reason why national Democrats are sticking with Markey, at least for the present, is the unstable and fluid political situation for Colorado Republicans in general–specifically, the unanswered question of how the chaos in the gubernatorial race will play out down the ticket. There is no clear direction as of now on what the backstabbed Dan Maes campaign for governor means for all the races that fall below it on the ballot: whether or not Republican turnout will be depressed by Maes, and how Tancredo’s third-party bid will impact GOP performance–especially in CD-4 with an ACP candidate in the race, endorsed or not. But be assured, Democrats are keenly aware of the potential opening this unprecedented situation creates.

Despite the fact that Republicans feel ascendant all over the country, there is a growing perception of weakness in the GOP’s strategy for this election in Colorado, from the emerging disaster in the governor’s race to questionable recruitment at the state legislative level–as well as truly dubious statewide candidates like Scott “Fox for Henhouse Secretary” Gessler for Secretary of State. Democrats know their back is against the wall in this election, they have known it for a long time. Colorado Republicans, giddy with “Tea Party”-fueled momentum, are only now slowly becoming aware of the hubris induced threats to their much-hyped coming triumph. We’ve said it over and over: even in “wave years,” the rules governing political campaigns about recruiting solid candidates, outraising the enemy, and squelching the crazies and the gaffe-prone, still apply.

All of which adds up to mean that Colorado, more than just about anywhere else, is the place for Democrats to stand and fight–and CD-4 is a bridgehead that just might be held after all.