CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 30, 2010 09:16 PM UTC
41 Comments
Republicans will win all 436 seats in the House of Representatives, including the non-voting delegate from the District of Columbia, by margins of at least 20 percent.
Or something close to it. This is the worst congress we’ve ever had, and it shows in the approval ratings.
or at least find many to admit it, but American voters are fed up with just about anyone in office right now. There will be R’s that lose as well, but I am anticipating a speaker JB after November. Salazar is not as safe as Perlmutter…in my humber opinion.
I think 3 incumbent senators have been knocked off.
I was sure someone had said 3 but I can’t think of the third. Maybe Specter?
I think it’s just murkowski and Bennet, assuming Murkowski stands, on the R side. If you count all incumbents, it’s definitely three
Of the three potentially vulnerable Dems from Colorado (Perlmutter, Salazar and Markey), you’d have to put Perlmutter third on this list — if nothing else because he is in a D-leaning district.
With Buck up double digits, under any standard turnout, the down ballot impacts could be massive.
Any word on when will Hickenlooper endorse Bennet and what the target week is for Obama to show for a photo op?
Hickenlooper endorsed Bennet, and there aren’t any polls that show Buck up “double digits,” not even your beloved Rassy.
When you apply any rational turnout to the remaining 11% it puts Buck up double digits.
next?
9 (now, 3) are both single digit numbers. Did you study math under BJWilson?
You’re failing to account for the debates, Republican ads, grassroots organization, etc. By the time all is said and done Bennet will probably receive a double digit shellacking.
Dan’s leading by 20 points and going away…;-)
reject the Tea Party while only 30 percent endorse it. I suspect the more people learn about Ken Buck, the more likely they are to vote Bennet.
(whistling past the graveyard)
And how’s that rapist’s rights thing working out for you and ken?
Pueblo and the valley still love him and he has veterans’ and farmers’ support all over the district. The purist Democrats aren’t happy with him, but they’ll vote for him anyway.
Voyageur:
It is now about 253 Dem to 178 Republican.
According to RCP the safe seats are 143 to 163.
Neither Perlmutter or Salazar are listed as safe seats.
If the Dems lose 50 seats making it 203-228 they are both probably going to make it.
If the Dems lose 60 or more, one will fall, in my opinion.
I think your comment proves the point of the posting. On RCP, CD-7 is listed as leans dem on a generic ballot. Generic is not running on either the dem or repub ticket. Its Perlmutter, who has won twice and is well known and liked in the district (and well funded), versus a city councilman that appears to have real talent, but is not well known in most of the district(and is not well funded). I agree with conclusion, as far as it goes, but the chances of the dems losing 60 or more seats seems extremely remote.
The job destruction and policy failures are taking their toll.
Admittedly Frazier and Perlmutter are very good people at the personal level – they are fine people.
The problems are the “blinded by liberal fever” policies that Perlmutter supported.
The blistering effects on the 7th CD – through jobs losses and income reductions – have turned POTUS great agenda into one big fever blister.
and what they’ll be. “We didn’t spend enough” isn’t going to fly.
Oh wait, I haven’t heard any ideas from the right. Let me guess, you’re going to cut taxes, probably without cutting spending to match, adding even more to the national debt. Bush policies at their finest.
And if you will cut spending to match your tax cuts, what specifically will you cut?
same thing with Salazar/Tipton. The trending is for the lean Dem seats to become toss-up and I think both will be in play. As the polling gets distributed they will move and attract some money.
As the story goes from, will the Republicans win the house to what will be the size of the majority, these seats will surface. I have thought for about three months the republicans would pick up 50 seats. If that expands to 60-65 as it looks like it might, one of these two seats will likely be one of the 60-65.
Dems did the same thing in 2006–once the DCCC saw how many House races were really in play, they loosened up some cash last minute and went after seats that they hadn’t previously considered supporting.
Spending in CD4 is a top priority since it’s the most vulnerable; they will probably buy ad time in CD3 if it looks close enough but I don’t see them doing it before October. I don’t see them spending money on CD7 at all unless internal polling tells them a different story close to the election.
I don’t know the polling in Markey’s district other than RCP moved it from toss-up to lean R, but with Buck polling like he did in the primary and the turn out in those two counties being goosed by him running, I think they will come to the conclusion they are wasting money sooner than later.
Time will tell.
Which group is it that you think will pull their money out of Markey’s race?
They are going to have to move money around as things worsen and to do that cut back in some of the areas they had earlier targeted, as I see it.
I think they are playing defense in about 50 districts, that looks like it will expand to 75-100 pretty soon.
Ryan Frazier will
1. Have a much easier time raising money
2. Have a good chance to be targeted by the national Republicans
3. Force the DSCC to spend money on Perlmutter
that they had not planned on spending
4. Keep Perlmutter from raising money or helping other Democratic candidates either locally or nationally
It is stunning that this guy Frazier is even within shouting distance
It’ll scare up the donors and volunteers who were yawning at his “safe seat” and hopefully get more feet on streets and cash out of pocket books. Despite that, I agree it’s really just an “R vs. D” poll at this point. Frazier is largely an unknown quantity and loses support with thinking voters every time he opens his mouth and reveals that he lacks any actual ideas that go beyond sound-bites. There’s also a libertarian in the race, Buck Bailey, who’s been siphoning a little support from Frazier by being kooky but at least unafraid to state his actual opinions.
Bottom line, Perlmutter’s donations will increase, Frazier will get stomped, and Ed’s reputation as a tough campaigner will be cemented; he won’t have to worry about dragging around the stigma of never having had a difficult race, should he choose to go for a higher office one day.
The toss-up is Markey.
It’s just not the year for that seat to stay blue.
Any ticket led by Tin Foil Danny Maes is found to hurt further down. I also think the Buck bubble will burst pretty quickly as voters get to know him. And Gardner has made a lot of goofs. The Tea Party takeover the GOP could spell catastrophe, a 1964 style debacle.
Perlmutter is getting 39%.