Who Will Win the Iowa Caucuses?

Today is the day! The 2020 campaign for President kicks into another gear today with the Iowa caucuses, so we want to know how you think things are going to play out.

Remember, as with all of our totally non-scientific polls here at Colorado Pols, we want to know what you think will happen, not who you support or what outcome you would prefer. Think of it like a placing a wager on a sporting event; if you had to put money on the outcome in Iowa, who would you pick?

Cast your vote after the jump…

Who Will Win the Iowa Caucuses?

27 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. MADCO says:

    there is no "winning"
    just the press cycle

  2. RepealAndReplace says:

    Bernie has this tonight. Caucuses are his forte. He will win tonight and next week in New Hampshire although New Hampshire will not be by the blow-out margin by which he beat Hillary. Then he runs into Nevada and South Carolina which will not .go as well for him

     

  3. 2Jung2Die says:

    Agree with R&R – caucuses favor the super-committed, though the candidate has to have some decent raw material or else even fanaticism won't do the trick. In primaries, voters can just choose in the privacy of a booth or living room so tribalism may be less powerful.

  4. Mike W. says:

    Seems reasonable to me that the vote for Clinton last time would be split in this more competitive primary with all the other candidates, while Sanders’ could only suffer minor losses to Yang and Warren. From this far away it looks like a Sanders shoe-in. 

    Still don’t have a damn clue who I’d vote for in the primary, though I can safely rule out Bloomy and Gabbard.

  5. Genghis says:

    As seen on the internet recently, the Dems starting their nomination process in Iowa and New Hampshire is akin to the GOP starting theirs in the UC Berkeley faculty lounge and on the set of Portlandia, but tonight might be interesting just the same. A strong third for Klobuchar in Iowa might just serve as a springboard once the campaign moves on past the stump jumpers.

  6. Voyageur says:

    A third for Amy, however distant, gives her the coveted better than expected title.

  7. Much as I'd like to see Warren win tonight, I think the polls have it right: Sanders will walk away with 1st place tonight, and Biden will take second, giving us two old white guys at the top.

  8. JohnInDenver says:

    538.com shows 13 polls of Iowa voters in the past week, with Sanders up in 11 (one tie of Sanders/Biden, one Buttigieg lead).  Overall average is Sanders up by 3%.

  9. itlduso says:

    This poll is misleading.  What do you mean by "win"?  Bernie may win the vote total metric, but someone else (Biden, Buttigieg, ??) will win the most delegates (which is what actually matters).  Similar to the electoral college, delegates are allocated based on precincts.  Bernie might have thousands of college students show up and swamp the few college town precincts, but he won't get that kind of support outside of the college towns where the majority of delegates are earned. 

    • MADCO says:

      We won’t know who got the most delegates until Iowa has their convention in a couple of months.
      But if Sanders is projected to get the most delegates, he wins?

      Iowa – 41 delegates to the DNC
      Bernie is polling at 25% – say he gets 11 “state delegate equivalent” (SDE). And the next highest projected SDE is 10 – Bernie wins.

      • RepealAndReplace says:

        That is how it would work if it were a statewide proportional vote system. Itlduso explains the problem. It's analogous to the electoral vote system.

        • MADCO says:

          math is math.
          Delegates is delegates.

          The 2020 IA caucus is different than prior years- but not much.
          The winner is the one who won the most delegates.

          I understand – Bernie cannot win.
          So all good D's everywhere can change the definition of winning. Or can get Kerry out of retirement. Or HRC. Or whoever.

           

  10. bullshit! says:

    Pols, I think the Bernie bros are freeping your poll.

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