Weekend Open Thread

“Knowledge without justice ought to be called cunning rather than wisdom.”

–Plato

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26 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

  2. PseudonymousPseudonymous says:

  3. Meiner49erMeiner49er says:

    It's Iowa…anything can happen.

    From a 538 article on the eve of the last Iowa caucuses: "That data tells us that polling in general elections is pretty accurate, at least in the final few weeks before the election. The data also tells us that polling in primaries and caucuses is not very accurate. Historically, the average error of late polls in presidential general elections is about 3.5 percentage points.1 By contrast, the average polling error associated with presidential primaries is more like 8 percentage points, more than twice as high." 

    Sure enough, polls were wrong in 2016.  Don't be surprised if we're surprised again this time around.

    • JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

      10 of the last 12 cycles, the Iowa Democratic caucus winner has gone on to be the Democratic nominee. Nothing is certain in most politics — but a 84% accuracy rate is better than most pundits, polls, or those who reply on sites like this. 

      And generally, national polls were pretty close to the national vote for President.  Unfortunately, there were few state by state polls consistently taken public.

      • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

        I am sure your information is correct. 

        I will offer a word of caution and refer, again, to Asimovs’ Mule. The alien mutant currently occupying Mar-a-lago and visiting the Whitest House is completely unpredictable. The voters in Iowa seem a very fluid body and things may change with the next news cycle. Iowa may come down to the most popular second choice because it is a caucus.

        Predictions? I’m not making any.

  4. MichaelBowmanMichaelBowman says:

    …or as #CadetBoneSpurs calls them: headaches 

    Veterans of Foreign Wars was compelled to weigh in:

    Veterans group demands apology from Trump over comments on brain injuries

  5. PseudonymousPseudonymous says:

    Big Warren endorsement in Iowa from the Des Moines Register.

    Endorsement: Elizabeth Warren will push an unequal America in the right direction

    The senior U.S. senator from Massachusetts is not the radical some perceive her to be. She was a registered Republican until 1996. She is a capitalist. “I love what markets can do,” she said. “They are what make us rich, they are what create opportunity.”

     

  6. DENependent says:

    Ars Technica gets political. This is honestly the second part of the headline:

    “Electoral instability is driven by low voter turn out and high polarization (duh).”

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/low-turnout-and-polarization-are-a-deadly-combo-for-electoral-stability/

    Worth reading, but the article concludes with, “In short, no matter what your political opinion, prepare to be overstressed and depressed by election results for the foreseeable future.” So a might bit like getting a cancer diagnosis when you suspected something was deeply wrong and it was not getting better.

  7. PseudonymousPseudonymous says:

    Some interesting notes about how Tom Perez is setting up the Democratic convention committees (thread).

  8. harrydobyharrydoby says:

    Another book I need to pick up at the Tattered Cover:

    A Very Stable Genius By Philip Rucker and Carol Leonnig

    It reads like a horror story, an almost comic immorality tale. It’s as if the president, as patient zero, had bitten an aide and slowly, bite by bite, an entire nation had lost its wits and its compass.

    They report that in the spring of 2017, Trump implored Rex Tillerson, then secretary of state, to help him jettison the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. “It’s just so unfair that American companies aren’t allowed to pay bribes to get business overseas,” Trump whines to a group of aides. Nearly every line from Trump, in “A Very Stable Genius,” is this venal.

    Before Trump had met with NATO allies, he kept glancing at Reince Priebus and pleading in front of others, in fanboy tones, “When can I meet with Putin? Can I meet with him before the inaugural ceremony?”

    So, yes, Senate Republicans are right, Trump was definitely worried about Ukrainian corruption — there just wasn't enough of it to satisfy his lust for power.

     

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