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August 12, 2010 05:54 PM UTC

The One We Got Wrong

  • 15 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We’re proud to report that our primary oddsmaking, as reflected in The 2010 Big Line to your left, accurately predicted the outcome of every race decided on Tuesday.

Except one, as the Durango Herald’s Joe Hanel reported yesterday:

Cortez Republican Scott Tipton won the right to challenge U.S. Rep. John Salazar for his seat in Congress.

Tipton beat Bob McConnell, a retired Army colonel from Steamboat Springs, in a hard-fought primary…

McConnell courted tea party support and got a major boost with an endorsement by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

“I felt the power of people reaching out and hearing my message that I was not in it for myself, I was in it for them. I don’t regret a minute of it,” McConnell said.

Tipton had hoped to avoid a primary, but McConnell put up a strong showing at the Congressional district convention in May, enabling him to stay in the race through the primary.

It’s true that, largely on the strength of the high-profile endorsement by former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, we had Bob McConnell at slightly better odds than Scott Tipton to win the CD-3 primary. It does appear in retrospect that we gave too much credit to the value of Palin’s endorsement, but we also didn’t think that Tipton had really excited the GOP base. Though it has been and remains our opinion that neither GOP contender has an appreciable chance of unseating locally popular incumbent John Salazar, we did think that Palin’s support of McConnell would be worth more than it ultimately was.

So you can consider us at least partly disabused of the notion that Sarah Palin’s endorsement is worth, well, anything–and it’s possible, depending on how other Palin-endorsed candidates like Nevada’s Sharron Angle do in November, that the rest of the country will not be far behind us.

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15 thoughts on “The One We Got Wrong”

    2. Nikki Haley won, and Palin’s endorsement arguably helped her defeat a sex scandal. It also helps when you’re not a terrible candidate.

      The rule might be a little less broad than Palin’s endorsement being toxic, but rather can be narrowed to mean that if you’re a crappy candidate, Palin’s endorsement isn’t going to overcome all of your shortcomings.

        1. to borrow a phrase from “All The President’s Men,” ‘If anything, it helped the woman’s image!’

          Palin’s endorsement can be, but is not necessarily, toxic, and I think 2.0 is correct in saying it probably helped Haley, and that it depends on the candidate.  

          Here, I don’t think it would matter a whit for Tancredo or Maes, but I do think it would help Buck, given his gaffes regarding women.

        2. we’re late night emails & phone calls completely fabricated?  Seems there’s some evidence out there but Haley’s not wishing to share.  

          So perhaps your def of “fabrication” is different from most reporting journalist, but hey it’s a Looking Glass world for a lot of pols.  You can make up your own fiction but you can’t deny facts.

      2. On the other hand, if you have a good candidate then endorsements from dead folks probably work just as well as from a half Governor.

  2. Colorado Pols: You did better than just about anyone I know on these picks.  Well done.  Interested in picking some lottery numbers for me?

  3. That said, as a longtime 3rd CD resident (albeit in temporary political exile), I never felt the Rs in the 3rd were batshit crazy enough to hand the nomination to Bob “Ranger” McConnell.

    John Salazar should cruise to an easy victory over Tipton, who really ought to find a better use for his even-numbered years.

    1. Although it is was fairly close, Ellen Roberts got the nomination over Boehler.  I don’t know how to translate the result – we have that many ultra-conservatives or that the moderate wing of the Republicans still has the power.  I certainly won’t be making a guess on who will win the general.

      I agree about Salazar, though.  He will steamroll Tipton.

  4. Well, it seems like SW Colorado is the one place in the country where the Tea Party hasn’t taken over the Republican Party.  See also Ellen Roberts victory.  This has always been more moderate Republican territory and apparently remains so.

  5. Throwing her weight behind candidates in a total of 34 races according to the Washington Post (winning 10 and losing 8, so far) this election cycle, Sarah Palin’s once strong streak of helping — or perhaps simply picking — eventual winners has begun to weaken. And now, with four of Palin’s more obscure choices losing elections in a matter of weeks, some within the GOP, such as Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), have begun to question the real effect of the former vice presidential candidate’s support.

    Of the candidates Palin has already endorsed, 15 of them still have upcoming primary elections. And as November draws closer, she’ll be expected to hit the campaign trail again for those mama and papa grizzlies who are still around for the general election. On top of all of this, there is little reason to believe that Palin is close to quitting the endorsement game, as much as some might like her to. Be prepared to see a growing list of Palinites, and with it, most likely a continuing rollercoaster ride of successes and failures.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

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