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August 03, 2010 05:17 PM UTC

Guess the Over/Under on Bennet v. Romanoff

  • 30 Comments
  • by: Ralphie

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

OK, there’s a week to go.  We have two recent polls.  I want to know what you think the margin of the Bennet-Romanoff contest will be.  Note: I do not want to know who you think will win.  I just want your best guess at the margin.

My arbitrary guess at the over/under is 4 points.

This is not Bennet or Romanoff shill thread.  Any such comments will be considered off topic.

Poll follows.

What's your guess at the margin of Bennet v. Romanoff

View Results

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Comments

30 thoughts on “Guess the Over/Under on Bennet v. Romanoff

      1. It’s an “under.”  The margin of error is for polls.  If the bookie sets the over/under at four, and you guess three, you’re betting the “under.”  If you guess 4.1, you bet the “over”

        Normally the over/under is not an integer, because in sports the scores are integer numbers and the bookie wants to avoid a “push.”  But in an election, the margin is rarely an integer.  I just pulled “4” out of my ass.

  1. I think you should consider asking a similar question in the Republican race concerning how many Republicans just skip over the Governor primary but still vote between Buck and Norton.

  2. Perhaps I missed it, but one source of “facts” on the under/over factor might be found in the 7/27 Rasmussen poll release, which said:

    Fifteen percent (15%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Bennet…. But 35% view him Very Unfavorably.

    Romanoff earns Very Favorables of 20% and Very Unfavorables of 21%.

    I seem to recall earlier discussions in which BennetPols opined that the “very” factor was the best predictor of outcomes.

    Based on a right-leaning poll that’s a whole week old now, PACman has a net minus 20 in the “very favorable/very unfavorable” category, versus Romanoff’s net minus 1. Does that mean a 19-point margin for Romanoff? Seems unlikely, but theoretically 1 vote is all it takes…as PACman knows from experience. Has Ritter voted yet?

      1. You can’t shut the shills up even for a single post.

        There’s no point in trying to have fun instead of bashing each other.

        That requires both sides to play nice.  Not possible with the Radical Romies.

          1. Get ready to lawyer-up boys!

            It’s really the only way else that this could get uglier.

            (Call it inevitable, call it Karma, call it what you will, I’m just saying that until now the Dems have had it too good this year.  So, what else could these two guys possibly do at this point to snatch defeat from the jaws of inevitable victory in November?)

  3. Romanoff- 52%

    Bennet- 48%

    I think it will be very close, judging by the polls and the harsh campaigning on both sides.

    I could be wrong, we’ll see next Tuesday. =)

  4. And one of the candidates is sliding fast because of a vote against giving seniors and disabled folks on Social Security, and veterans with profound service connected disabilities a check for a mere $250 to help offset the decision not to provide COLAs in 2010.

    This is one of those viral issues that people talk about over the kitchen table, at water coolers, at church, in garages, etc. And it’s building as voters turn in their ballots.

    So I see the opponent coming in at 5 points or more above the guy that shot himself in the foot with this issue affecting a huge segment of Colorado’s most likely voters.

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