CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 06, 2019 03:10 PM UTC
9 Comments
One poll isn't very informative. And, Iowa is such a small state the it isn't very relevant to a national primary election.
There are a shitload more delegates at stake in California. Remember that California has a mail-in primary so half or more of the CA votes will turned in by the time any news comes out of Iowa.
Iowa happens February 3.
California Vote-By-Mail Ballot Mailing Period [when the ballots can be sent out domestically] is Feb 3 – Feb 25, 2020. So California won't have many ballots in before Iowa news hits. Deadline for voting is March 3, although California accepts a post-mark of that date and delivery of the ballot by March 6 as a valid vote.
In the 4 contests of February, something like 4% of Democratic delegates will be chosen (or at least be in process). California, Colorado and 12 or so other jurisdictions will be voting on the first Tuesday in March, and by the end of the day, over 40% of the delegates will be chosen.
Amy keeps slowly growing her strength. Please, Iowa, don't saddle us with the far left funny farm.
She has now qualified for the December debate!
Bananas, clusterfuck of biblical proportions … six of one, half-dozen of the other.
I grew up in Iowa and worked the 2008 cycle there. One thing for sure, polls don't mean shit to Iowegians.
In 2008 the Clinton people thought they were polling well and were celebrating with cake and singing before the caucus. The Edwards people were stealing chairs from other camps to try to make a show of strength, the Biden people were barely a presence, and all the while the Obama people stood quietly while others argued over chairs. Those standing grew as the room filled. By voting time, it was obvious that someone had a ground game, and the rest were just courting the the guardians of the status quo: party officials, journalists, etc. People got up from their chairs with other groups and walked over to stand with the Obama group because they could see that a change was indeed happening. It was one of the most amazing statements of Democracy I've ever seen, and I was working for someone other than Obama!
The Iowa winner will be the candidate whose ground game is down in the grassroots and weeds of Iowa politics, not ahead in the polls. Right now, for better or worse, that looks to be Warren.
From my reading, it appears that Klobuchar also has a decent ground game in IA.
Two caveats
— Dr. J. Ann Seltzer (Go, Hawks!) and her polling operation have been able to come close on the caucus. Others, not so much.
— Ground game is more than effort. Delaney has had a ground game going in Iowa for a LONG time, but without some indication of traction, I don't think it will matter.
Des Moines Register article with significant content on Ground Game lists Warren and Buttigieg positively, says Sanders has lost support even among those who caucused for him in 2016. Others with extensive staff include Biden and Harris. Stuff I've seen elsewhere says Klobuchar has a team in place, but continues to rely on volunteers from Minnesota to go south and help in Iowa.
Go Hawks!