Iowa Could Be Bananas

Corn

Quinnipiac University released a new poll this afternoon on the Democratic race for President in Iowa. It’s gonna be a wild couple of months:

…the Democratic race for president in Iowa is wide open, as the top 4 candidates are in a close contest, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll released today. Senator Elizabeth Warren receives 20 percent support among Iowa likely Democratic caucus- goers, with South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg getting 19 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden at 15 percent.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar gets 5 percent, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 4 percent, and businessman Tom Steyer, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and businessman Andrew Yang are each at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent…

…The race remains very fluid as about half, 52 percent, of those who express a first choice say they might change their mind before the caucus, while 46 percent say their mind is made up. Sanders voters appear to be the most committed as 61 percent of Sanders voters say their mind is made up, compared to 48 percent of Biden voters, 44 percent of Warren voters, and 40 percent of Buttigieg voters.

In a race without a clear frontrunner, there has been a lot of discussion about Iowa’s “first-in-the-nation” status taking on even greater importance in 2020. Four Democrats — Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Joe Biden — are essentially tied here when you consider the margin of error.

Colorado won’t vote until March 1, but because we’re a largely mail-ballot state, campaigns could start putting significant resources here not long after Iowa has spoken.

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  1. ParkHill says:

    One poll isn't very informative. And, Iowa is such a small state the it isn't very relevant to a national primary election.

    There are a shitload more delegates at stake in California. Remember that California has a mail-in primary so half or more of the CA votes will turned in by the time any news comes out of Iowa.

    • JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

      Iowa happens February 3.

      California Vote-By-Mail Ballot Mailing Period [when the ballots can be sent out domestically] is Feb 3 – Feb 25, 2020.  So California won't have many ballots in before Iowa news hits.   Deadline for voting is March 3, although California accepts a post-mark of that date and delivery of the ballot by March 6 as a valid vote. 

      In the 4 contests of February, something like 4% of Democratic delegates will be chosen (or at least be in process).  California, Colorado and 12 or so other jurisdictions will be voting on the first Tuesday in March, and by the end of the day, over 40% of the delegates will be chosen.

  2. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    Amy keeps slowly growing her strength.  Please, Iowa, don't saddle us with the far left funny farm.  

     

  3. Genghis says:

    Bananas, clusterfuck of biblical proportions … six of one, half-dozen of the other. 

  4. Meiner49erMeiner49er says:

    I grew up in Iowa and worked the 2008 cycle there. One thing for sure, polls don't mean shit to Iowegians.

    In 2008 the Clinton people thought they were polling well and were celebrating with cake and singing before the caucus. The Edwards people were stealing chairs from other camps to try to make a show of strength, the Biden people were barely a presence, and all the while the Obama people stood quietly while others argued over chairs. Those standing grew as the room filled. By voting time, it was obvious that someone had a ground game, and the rest were just courting the the guardians of the status quo: party officials, journalists, etc. People got up from their chairs with other groups and walked over to stand with the Obama group because they could see that a change was indeed happening. It was one of the most amazing statements of Democracy I've ever seen, and I was working for someone other than Obama! 

    The Iowa winner will be the candidate whose ground game is down in the grassroots and weeds of Iowa politics, not ahead in the polls. Right now, for better or worse, that looks to be Warren.

    • Conserv. Head Banger says:

      From my reading, it appears that Klobuchar also has a decent ground game in IA.

    • JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

      The Iowa winner will be the candidate whose ground game is down in the grassroots and weeds of Iowa politics, not ahead in the polls. Right now, for better or worse, that looks to be Warren.

      Two caveats

       — Dr. J. Ann Seltzer (Go, Hawks!) and her polling operation have been able to come close on the caucus.  Others, not so much.

       — Ground game is more than effort. Delaney has had a ground game going in Iowa for a LONG time, but without some indication of traction, I don't think it will matter.

      Des Moines Register article with significant content on Ground Game lists Warren and Buttigieg positively, says Sanders has lost support even among those who caucused for him in 2016.  Others with extensive staff include Biden and Harris. Stuff I've seen elsewhere says Klobuchar has a team in place, but continues to rely on volunteers from Minnesota to go south and help in Iowa. 

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