CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 27, 2010 01:22 AM UTC
21 Comments
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Stories like the ones out of Colorado influence national opinions and are far sexier than a 2300 page bill that relocates the office of thrift supervision, clarifies the boundaries between the CFTC and SEC, and calls for swaps to be exchange traded with certain exceptions.
Dodd-Frank is important, without a doubt, but its rhetorical and polling impact had already been figured into the total by the time that it was signed.
Not that I mind that a lot, since it seems Republicans are falling over themselves to Go For The Crazy this year, and dragging along the scandal baggage they’ve been plagued with in recent years to boot.
If this is true, then the more Democrats expose the Tea Party as a branch of the Republican Party, or the more the Teabaggers and GOP fight it out, the more upside Democrats will see as we enter the general election season.
The best we can do is to expose the crazies and cause Independents to give up on the political process this year. Then it’ll be up to the base to show up. That being said, if the Dems can hammer on the wedge issues between the crazies and institutional R’s we’ll survive the tsunami of “no plan” “just say no” “lower taxes will solve everything” folks.
Gallup had another poll that they’ve been doing since January of this year, on voter identification.
Colorado is the single most competitive state in the country by voter self-identification. The state has, essentially, a split voter base (like we didn’t know that).
So – even self-identification, plus a slight generic ballot advantage to Dems… To me this equals Really Close Races, especially in CO-04.
…which has been gradually declining since about May.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122…
If economic confidence were rising, I’d see a reason for people starting to prefer Dems more. It’s not. So, if this bump for Dems is real, Reps have only themselves to blame. As Parsing pointed out above: Republicans are falling over themselves to Go For The Crazy this year.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens after the primaries, whether R’s can believably move to the center without alienating and de-motivating their base.
appear in the states that have had their primaries and it just hasn’t happened. If it isn’t happening in Nevada, California, South Carolina, etc what makes you think it will happen here? I know it’s fun to think we’re somehow special, but we’re just a micro of the greater macro.
I actually hope I’m wrong. The only way our system of government truly works is when we have some center Dems & Repubs who can hash out legislation introduced by the progressives and neocons. We NEED those moderates and need to stop being ashamed of them in both parties. I actually wish we had a nice viable third party to play that role.
It’s obvious to those on the left that the wacko far-right’s cannibalization of the Marosticas of the Republican party damages both their own and the national (or state’s) interests. But it’s not obvious to those on the far-left that their own cannibalization of our own party’s moderates is equally destructive to their own and the national interests. Instead, they resort to the same rhetoric employed by their uncompromising counterparts on the right, with the same effect on our collective ability to actually make some progress.
The quote on today’s open thread is by the Czech author and statesman Vaclav Havel. His countryman Milan Kundera wrote in The Unbearable Lightness of Being, commenting on a protest in France, “don’t they know that the raised fists are the problem?”
It’s not that there’s never a time to take a stand, or that it’s never necessary to “raise fists” to do it; rather, it’s the ease and constancy with which it is done, the quick recourse to division over unity, the emotional resistance to mutual accomodation and compromise, whether within a political party, a nation, or the world as a whole, that is so counterproductive.
Of course it’s staying the same. They’re now doing the general public instead of likely voters.
Let him keep thinking that; he’ll be overconfident and that’s a good thing.
I don’t like them when Republicans are winning, and I don’t like them when Democrats are winning.
They mean nothing. Everybody hates someone else’s representative. All that matters is how they feel about their own.
It is funny that when they do those generic Congressional polls everybody wants to throw them all out but then when they ask about their own reps they get amazingly different results. The ultimate example of all politics are local. They hate em all but their rep spoke at the High School, or the Rotary club, etc. etc. so they are OK.
Kevin Drum talked about this last week,
http://motherjones.com/kevin-d…
They come running back to the left.
The rapidly growing American Constitution Party, spearheaded by its new standard-bearer Tom Tancredo!
The first data point in the graf, I gather in March, showed Dems ahead of GOP 47-44.
The last data point, in July, showed Dems ahead of GOP 48-44.
Is that a “trend”? Or is that a variation within the margin of error of the poll? Do variations from week to week of 3 or 4 points comprise “significant bumps”? There are variations that could have both parties claiming bumps — Republicans at end of June (49-43), Democrats a month later (48-44). Something to get excited about on either side?
Possibly not.