October 18, 2019 12:02 AM UTC

Political Betting Odds vs Media Pols

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• by: Phoner

If you are like most people, the upcoming election buzz has done nothing but spin your head around as if you were starring in a horror movie of epic proportions. While you may hear from one source that a certain candidate is sure to win, another source may emphatically assure you that someone else is going to be the victor. With all the allegations being thrown around, all the untruths being spread to sully one candidate or another, and all the health problems associated with this election, the outcome is bound to be a huge surprise to everyone. Here are a few things you may want to consider when you listen to all the hype surrounding the political betting odds vs the media pols.

Futures

When betting on something in the future, such as candidates still in the race from one day to the next, you are trying to predict an upcoming outcome using data from today. Unless you have a crystal ball and a way of knowing someone won’t be in a car accident, your bet is only a hopeful guess – and that is what makes it all the more fun. Whether you choose a spread or moneyline wager, you can be sure the outcome will surprise you, though it may not delight.

Pressure

Watching the polling data and endorsements can help you understand the odds one person has of winning over another, but it is not always how it works because of the way candidates slip out of the race as the election nears. Also, polls may be biased when taken in one state rather than over a large source population. Endorsements, which have been some of the best key indicators of which candidate would win, can also be reported with a bias for one party or another.

Accuracy

The first problem you may have to deal with is the accuracy of the many polling services that claim they have all the answers as to who is in the race, who will win the election, and what the odds are in the upcoming national, state, or area political agenda. Most people don’t believe the public opinion surveys because they have been wrong so many times lately and because it doesn’t seem to matter what the truth is about the 2020 election odds, because the polls find what they are looking for rather than what is accurate.

Prediction

There is a split down the middle when it comes to who is predicting the winner of the 2020 election and who will still be in the race by election time. There is also a very different group of media pols and public favorites. How can that be? With only around 75 days until the November election, odds are going against Trump in a large media blitz, while the prediction experts that claimed less than 90 days ago that Trump would lose by a landslide are now reversing themselves and stating Trump will easily win because of the strength of the economy. Who is to be believed?

Outcome

One thing is certain about political betting odds and media pols; there is no certainty. The media has held sway over the population for hundreds of years as they spoon-fed political information for consumption. What the newest information on political betting odds shows is that the media no longer has the power to alter or influence the elections that it once had. With widespread information at their fingertips, each person is finding their own truth as they look at data about the candidates, endorsements, past political history, and what other people think. Therein lies the problem for most. A friend has more power to sway an individual than the media will ever have.