Maybe don’t. Or have a stiff drink first:
The Dow fell 800 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.
Here’s what happened: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.6% Wednesday morning, dropping just below the yield of the 2-year Treasury bond. It marked the first time since 2007 that 10-year bond yields fell below 2-year yields.
US stocks fell as investors sold stock in companies and moved it into bonds. The Dow (INDU) fell as many as 808 points and was nearly 3.1% lower at the close. The broader S&P 500 (SPX) closed down 2.9% and the Nasdaq (COMP) sank 3% Wednesday. It was the worst day for stocks of 2019.
We’ll hold off on the political prognostication long enough for readers to grieve. But clearly there will be some.