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April 22, 2010 10:16 PM UTC

Which Colorado Politician Would You Draft #1?

  • 54 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: You can read our Top 5 after the jump. Tomorrow — the “sleeper” picks.

—–

The NFL Draft kicks off tonight, with the first round being held in prime time for the first time in history. That got us thinking about how a political draft might play out in Colorado.

Which Colorado politician, active or retired, would you select #1 overall if your goal was to win a statewide election in 2010? Here’s the scenario:

  • Suppose Colorado was awarded a third U.S. Senate seat, so there is no incumbent and no history of incumbency.

  • You are choosing the best politician to win that seat in 2010.

  • This is not about who would be the best Senator or do the best job in office. This is pure politics — who is most likely to get elected AND who helps you down the ticket? Ideally you want your top pick to be helpful for the rest of your political “team.” You could make your #1 pick an “Independent” candidate, but that wouldn’t help anyone else down-ticket.

  • Ignore current partisan labels. You could choose Gov. Bill Ritter and run him as a Republican if you wanted.

  • Pay no attention to whether or not someone would be putting another seat in danger if they ran for something else (for example, Rep. John Salazar. Pick as though you want the single best chance to win this one race.

    • So, how would you fill out your wish list? Who would you choose #1? Who would make up your Top Ten, in order? Make your picks below, and read about our Top Five after the jump.

    Here is how our Top Five might look, off the top of our collective heads:

    1. Ken Salazar (Democrat)

    Not only is Salazar very popular in Colorado, but the Interior Secretary would have a lot of support from the White House (Salazar and President Obama are close friends). But the real sweetener in this pick is that Salazar would likely have a strong impact on turning out more Hispanic voters, which would help every down-ballot candidate.

    2. John Hickenlooper (Democrat)

    The Denver Mayor is really a nightmare scenario for just about any opponent because he is wildly popular throughout Metro Denver (an area that includes a HUGE chunk of the total number of Colorado voters), but he also has a strong business background that makes him attractive to the state’s swing voters who are essentially Libertarians (they want smart fiscal leadership but don’t care much about controversial social issues).

    We considered whether it would make sense to run Hick as a Republican, given that he is not very liberal, but reconsidered as we thought about how most of his social positions would really alienate a right-wing Republican base (not to mention the fact that he is from Denver, which automatically gives him a stigma with Republicans).

    3. Bill Owens (Republican)

    We can’t think of another obvious Republican to put at the top of this list besides Owens. The former Governor left office in 2007 with decent favorability ratings, and he was always good at playing the insider political game that kept a lot of other Republicans in line (and that lack of leadership has been all too apparent for Republicans in recent years). Sure, Owens is probably a little too much of his own man for many Republicans, including those still mad about Referendum C. But we see his bipartisan leadership on major issues like Ref. C as more of a positive than a negative with the majority of voters.

    4. Betsy Markey (Democrat or Republican)

    A moderate female candidate could really have an advantage in a statewide election, if nothing else because it makes them stand out; Colorado has never elected a woman to the Senate or the Governor’s mansion, and that narrative would get a lot of attention in the last few months of the election (current GOP Senate candidate Jane Norton will benefit from this to a degree if she wins the Republican nomination this year, but it won’t be as effective because she has gone so far to the right on many issues).

    Markey has shown herself to be a good fundraiser and a disciplined campaigner who rarely departs from her message. She’s also the owner of a successful small business, which gives her the “businessperson” cache that is so helpful to Hickenlooper. We just can’t decide whether we would run her as a Democrat or a Republican, because there are some obvious advantages to both.

    5. Cary Kennedy (Republican)

    If you could go back in time and re-invent Jane Norton, you could do worse than making her out to be more like State Treasurer Kennedy (a Democrat). A solid campaigner and good public speaker with a nice-looking family, Kennedy has the financial and policy brains but also a history as a big supporter of public education. She’s like a PTA mom on steroids, and while she’s a little left of moderate, her current elected position has kept her out of the weeds on most of the controversial social issues. Kennedy is a strong candidate as a Democrat, but we think Republicans — particularly women, who have not traditionally been well-represented by the Colorado GOP — would love her.

    5(a). Ed Perlmutter (Democrat)

    We left out Perlmutter at first mention, but he’s got to at least be in the top six. Perlmutter is a great fundraiser with strong political ties (in both parties) across the state, and he’s also a talented natural politician. But perhaps his biggest advantage is the makeup of his district; Perlmutter represents big chunks of two of the most populous counties in Colorado (Jefferson and Adams) and three of our largest cities (Aurora, Lakewood, Arvada), and his district borders Denver on three sides. That’s a huge percentage of Colorado voters that are already somewhat familiar with his name.

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    54 thoughts on “Which Colorado Politician Would You Draft #1?”

    2. Hick/Bennet/Garnett is a pretty white male & Denver-Centric team.  I suppose Kennedy isn’t male, but I’m not counting SOS or Treasurer; too far below the radar screen.  So I might say:

      1) John Salazar: moderate, Latino, & rural — each of which could motivate some different voters

      2) Morgan Carroll: female, & could excite the base in a way neither Hick/Bennet (whatever their other merits) will excite the base

    5. He’s done it before in a tough environment.  Helps with both rural and latinos.  Very generous with helping down ballot elections.

    6. Hispanic, rural, liked, and coming from the cabinet. Yowzas.

      It wouldn’t hurt him that he served in the cabinet, it would just boost his credentials.

      2. But he’s getting up there in age, and he’s too right-wing to win in Colorado today. Colorado voters want moderates, and Armstrong doesn’t qualify.

        1. …the only people who called Armstrong right-wing tended to be the Dems getting destroyed by Armstrong. He’s a proven fundraiser who excites the base without turning off the center.

          You’re right that he’s up there in age, but he’s still younger than McCain.

          Maybe try it this way — what Republican could beat Armstrong in a primary today? What Republican would even try?

          1. Armstrong’s conservatism was fine when he was first elected, but you can’t really win a General election in Colorado if you are not a clear moderate.

            Yes, he probably could easily win a Republican primary — which is kind of the problem. When Republicans nominate their most conservative candidate, they make it easy for the Democrat to be the moderate. Case in point: Mark Udall seemed much more moderate than Bob Schaffer in 2008, even though Udall was always considered fairly liberal. But by comparison to Schaffer, Udall seemed more moderate.  

            1. Dems always salivated when Repubs nominated their most conservative candidate, and figured they had the general election sewed up.

              The result was Sen. Wayne Allard. Twice.

              I know congressional districts are different, but that kind of thinking also gave us Rep. Tom Tancredo, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, and Rep. Doug Lamborn.

              The last two elections in Colorado were about moderates, or at least not-Bushes. This year is more about anger and revenge.

              1. But polls of Congress show that Republicans are still less liked than Democrats. The winds may shift to the GOP this year in Colorado, but they aren’t shifting that far to the right.  

    8. I have to agree with y’all. There’s no Colorado politician I’ve met who can beat Ken Salazar. When I found out Ritter was not running again, I hoped that KS would run, if only because he’s a powerhouse at the ballot box and is great at getting underrepresented voters to the polls.  

    9. …who thinks Bill Owens would trounce either Salazar in a statewide race right now? Democratic opposition to Owens only really materialized after the Democrats took control of the legislature, and there are a few right wingers with Ref C/D quips, but I think history has been very kind to Governor Owens.

      It’s interesting that Mark Udall hasn’t come up: he won the most recent statewide election, and convincingly (against an admittedly bad candidate).  If people are ignoring Udall because of the “third Senate seat” qualifier, then why are they considering Ken Salazar?  There’s no way he’d run for Senate again.

      Hickenlooper would be a clear #1 for me, but the lackluster nature of his gubernatorial campaign has me a little down on him right now.

      The other thing is this: I don’t think pre-election name ID is at all important in a statewide race.  If I’m looking for a local candidate, I want him/her to be well-known and well-connected.  If I’m looking for a statewide candidate, that person obviously needs to be able to raise money, but he/she doesn’t need to be known at large, because the campaign will take care of that on its own.  If Ryan Frazier had stayed in the Senate race and (somehow) ended up winning the GOP nomination, every single Coloradan would have heard his name before November. That’s just how these things go.

      My list:

      1. Owens – state trending too right now for me to pick a Dem at #1.

      2. Perlmutter – GREAT campaigner.

      3. Hickenlooper – still super popular.

      4. K. Salazar – broad appeal, but doesn’t really fire up anyone.

      5. Udall – most recent statewide victor.

      6. Marostica – not known, but exactly what most of the state would want now.

      7. J. Salazar – he’d do fine, but any of the top six could beat him.

      8. Kennedy – her problem is that she’s treasurer at a really bad economic time.

      9. Hefley – I have no doubt he’s done, but I think he could win if he wanted to.

      10. Cleve Tidwell – Always a good decision.

      Not listed:

      Markey – Opposition exploits perceived flip-flop on HCR.

      Bennet – Too tied to the unpopular Ritter.

      Ritter – Good governor, bad politician.

      M. Carroll – I like her, but I’d probably bet against her if her opponent can command the center.

      Romanoff – Pains me to say it, but he may have blown a future political career to challenge Bennet.

      M. Johnston – Definitely could go places, but not just yet.

      Coffman – Boring.

      Hart – Wouldn’t that be fascinating, though?

      Lamborn – Couldn’t win outside CD-5, except in CD-6.

      Tancredo – Do I need to explain?

      Buescher – Just missed the cut.

      I’m annoyed by the lack of women on this list, but I’m trying to be honest rather than optimistic.  Beyond Kennedy and Markey, there aren’t too many strong candidates to speak of.

      1. He either has skeletons in the closet or is burned out.  Either way he is done with politics in Colorado.  Republicans buried him years ago and nothing says he is likely to resurface which supports the skeletons in the closer theory.

        1. the press and the Democrats had nine years (one for the campaign and eight for his administration) to find skeletons in Bill Owens’ closet. It didn’t happen.  Remember 2002, when the Dems gave Owens a free pass to reelection (due respect to Sen. Heath, of course)?  Do you think that would happen in any statewide race now?

          There’s always some x-factor we can’t anticipate.  Knowing what we know, however, I’d take Owens against anyone.

          2. is never going to run for public office again either.

            Owens would have been the clear favorite to win either the senate seat in 2008 or 2010.  He wasn’t even mentioned when they recruited Norton who is barely a second tier candidate.  So you have a political party desperate to win and their shoo-in candidate isn’t even mentioned.  Hmmmmmm?

      3. and that young guy who ran against Udall, you know the one who replaced Brown in CD4.

        Oh yeah and that kid from GS’s, former congressman, now running for Gov …. McInnis

    10. 1)  Ken Salazar (Democrat or Republican).  Proven winner.  Republicans could use a few more moderates since they have a dirth of them right now.

      2)  Jared Polis (Democrat, of course, there is no such thing as an out-gay republican in elective office).  Money out the wazoo and has a history of winning races that he is supposed to lose.

      3)  Mike Coffman (Republican).  Currently the only republican player that scares me a bit as a democrat.  Strong conservative, but isn’t pushy or obnoxious about it (like Lamborn or Musgrave).  I loathe his politics, but I respect him…and for a conservative republican to be appealing to me, that is saying something.

      4)  Cary Kennedy (Democrat or Republican).  Same reasons you cited above.

      5)  Ed Perlmutter (Democrat or Republican) Only representative who is representing a swing district which gives him an advantage out of the gate…unless, of course you are Bob Beauprez.

      2. No waaay sir. I just can’t see an openly gay politician winning statewide, at least not for another ten or twenty years.

        Using your list:

        1. Ken Salazar

        2. Mike Coffman

        3. Edwin Perlmutter

        4. Cary Kennedy

        5. Jared Polis – except not. 😉

            1. but once people have voted for him…it makes it easier to do it again once information that would otherwise have been a deal breaker is learned.

              For instance David Vitter will likely cruise to a second term as Senator from Louisiana in spite of his taste for prostitutes.  Now, had he not been already elected statewide once in Louisiana, it is very unlikely he would have been elected to a first term.

            2. Polis was not expected to win in CD-2, that’s true. But you can’t seriously count his School Board race as relevant. Polis spent around $800,000 against a Republican who spent about $10,000. You could get a lint brush elected with that kind of financial disparity.  

          1. being superb, learning a lot and doing well in Boulder, it’s about the fact that he is gay.  

            Yes it is wrong, yes it shouldn’t be that way, but just as an african american couldn’t win in the south before it was time, so too, Rep. Polis can’t win Colorado any time soon.

    13. Someone here said Marostica… and ya, I agree. He’s a great guy, has a fantastic narrative, and he’s genuinely likable.  Problem is – no one knows him.  And that’s because he’s a quiet, get-the-job-done, honest-to-goodness consensus builder.  He’s no fiscal and social conservative – but gosh… what a great guy.  

      Here’s someone else like that: Mayor Ed Tauer.  I know… I know… there’s no way he shores up “the base” in a statewide race – and he’s not pitch-perfect on the stump, but he’s another good soul.  

      One more for you: Scott Tipton.  Now here me out: he’s quirky, likable, honest, a business man, and he works hard representing his constituents.  Yes – he’s not ready for the ‘big time’… but jeez – if he were offered a free pass with years to shore up an organization while earning a solid voting record (and yes, he’d be solid), he’d be a real ‘team-doesn’t-have-an-I-in-it’ Republican.

      But here’s the crux of the situation… and it’s exactly what Republicans have been saying among themselves for years: we are at least two cycles out from having a real, amazing,  and statewide slate of electable officials.   We have no bench. And we have no bench because of (1) term-limits, (2) the hubris of the those who have already served, (3) stupid strategic moves, and (4) because we’ve run folks before they were ready.  As examples, I give you: Allard, Owens, Beauprez giving up CD-7, and Wil Armstrong.  In that order.  

      My perfect guy: a businessman who has a soft spot for policy and the rule of law.  Someone who isn’t satisfied with the status-quo — someone who thinks outside the box and is willing to campaign like every single second of every single day counts.   Ladies and Gentlemen: I give you Marc Hickenstrong (Holtzman, Hick and Armstrong).  Or maybe it’s Pete Hickenschaf (Coors, Hick and Schaffer). Either way – there’s a Hick in there.        

    14. Alice Madden could have taken the 2nd CD handily but chose not to run.  If Mark Udall has indeed broken the Boulder Barrier–she would be a great Governor.  Personable, sharp and we now know she knows how to win in the swing districts.  

    15. Strong Republican cred, but also popular with Dems for pulling CU out of the shitter. Also very well spoken, thoughtful, and generally well liked.  

    16. have you met the man??!

      -Adorable (sorry the guy is a cutie patootey)

      -Family guy

      -Has the Obama connection

      -Smart. Smart. Smart. I never see him stumble on an issue and he  absorbs and listens to what people say and actually engages them instead of just sitting there nodding. (one of the few who actually pays attention in committee instead of twittering away)

      -young and likeable

      -his ‘inexperience’ is beneficial in this economic climate.. He doesn’t have that political baggage

      -He’s ambitious and out of a lot of politicians that I have met, his heart is really in the right place (yeah corny I know)

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