March 18, 2010 04:36 AM UTC

The Biggest Loser: Michael Bennet Edition

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• by: StrykerK2

I’ve spent a lot of time today talking with my fellow democrats, and it seems like everyone but the Bennet campaign agrees: Michael is in trouble.  The caucus can’t be viewed as anything but a total disaster for the campaign.  As a sitting senator, Bennet had the full backing of the President, Organizing for America, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  Of course as the campaign likes to point out, they also had millions at their disposal.

Despite everything Bennet had going for him, he lost.  No amount of spin about expectations or how a sitting senator can be a Washington outsider can change that fact.  Despite the money, the position, and the resources at his disposal, Bennet lost the caucus to a campaign that they view as nothing more than an unorganized band of ruffians.

Obviously it would be over the top to indicate that this is a deathblow to the campaign and they might as well quit, but it’s a really bad start to the primary season…and it’s not the only problem they are facing.  A few days before caucus, Public Policy Polling came out saying that Romanoff was the strongest Democratic candidate to take on Jane Norton.  (LINK).  The Romanoff campaign took that poll and ran with it – making sure that every potential caucus-goer, every news outlet, and every Democrat they could reach saw the report.  Clearly it worked.

Q1 numbers don’t come out for two weeks, but it’s evident that the Bennet campaign spent a lot of money going into the caucus.  Direct mail, staff, paid phone banks, robocalls, and who knows what else.  As much as they want to downplay the importance of caucus, it’s clear that they expended considerable resources towards it.

So how important is money banked right now?  Clearly less important than the Bennet campaign wants to make it seem.  They raised (and have probably spent) a lot of out of state money, but they aren’t building a continual donor base.  Compare that to Romanoff.  At the end of last quarter, the Romanoff campaign touted that they had more donors from Colorado than any campaign for any office in the state.  A base of several thousand instate donors can sustain the campaign for months to come.  Unlike Bennet who has leaned on fewer donors each giving larger amounts, Romanoff has built a following.

A second point on money (since people on the blogs seem to make so much of Bennet’s fundraising).  I keep hearing the argument that only Bennet can win because he’s the only one raising millions to combat Norton’s millions…except that she hasn’t raised millions.  In fact, her fundraising has been about where Romanoff’s has been, and she’s spent a lot on television already.  If Buck pulls off an upset and is the R nominee, his fundraising has been weaker. (and of course Romanoff is already polling ahead of both of them).

I’ve waited on posting about this race before.  I’ve followed the discussion regularly and seen the heated exchange on both sides of this race.  Mostly I didn’t want to get involved in the bickering.  Also I was curious to see how the caucus turned out.  Given Romanoff’s victory, I think it opens up new dialogue than we had before.