March 08, 2010 09:31 PM UTC

Harstad Research Poll

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• by: Ray Springfield

(Memo here – promoted by Colorado Pols)

The sample and breakdown are much more thorough in sample size, and in analysis of voting groups.

March 1, 2010

Michael Bennet and Jane Norton are running neck and neck, 41% Bennet to 40% Norton in combined results from two surveys conducted in January and February among a statistically robust sample of 1,213 likely Colorado voters statewide (margin of error  2.8%). Both surveys draw upon a conservative sample of Colorado voters in which Republicans enjoy a 5-point registration advantage over Democrats (39% registered Republican, 34% registered Democrat, and 27% registered Independent).

Among the key subgroups of voters that will decide the election in November registered Independent voters and women Bennet already holds the advantage.

Bennet leads Norton by 41% to 31% among the pivotal one-quarter of the Colorado electorate that is unaffiliated or Independent. Bennet’s lead among Independent voters extends across the state. He leads Norton among Independent voters in Denver and Boulder counties (54% – 19%), in the five suburban counties surrounding Denver (42% – 36%), in the ex-urban Front Range counties (33% – 29%), and in the Colorado’s rural counties (37% – 36%).

Bennet leads Norton among Colorado women by 46% to 36%. Given expectations regarding Jane Norton’s natural reach into the women’s vote, Bennet’s initial support is impressive and seriously undermines the Republican path to victory in November. Bennet’s support among women is broad and far reaching.

o Bennet leads Norton among white women (43% – 39%) and Hispanic women (57% – 25%).

o Bennet leads Norton among younger women under age 40 (50% – 30%), women age 40-59 (44% – 41%), and women age 60 or older (44% – 36%).

Bennet leads Norton among women with a college degree or more education (51% – 32%), and he is statistically tied with Norton among women without a college degree (40% – 41%).

o Bennet leads Norton among suburban women (49% – 36%), as well as among more urban women in Denver and Boulder counties (60% – 18%). The candidates are tied among women in the traditionally more conservative ex-urban Front Range counties (38% – 38%).

Michael Bennet’s lead is particularly impressive given his mere 13-month tenure in the U.S. Senate, and the fact that just 48% of Colorado voters can offer a substantive opinion of him. Bennet has great opportunity to expand his support among the 52% bloc of Coloradans who are still unfamiliar with his accomplishments and his agenda for working families and seniors in Colorado.

The combined surveys were conducted January 6-8, 2010 and February 11-15, 2010 by Harstad Strategic Research. Based in Colorado, Harstad Research has been the successful pollster for the Senate campaigns of Ken Salazar and Mark Udall. It currently polls for five U.S. Senators and has polled for President Obama from 2002 to the present. Harstad Research has a remarkable record of accuracy in recent elections in Colorado and elsewhere. In 2004, its final Senate poll showed Ken Salazar winning by 4.4% while he ended up winning by 4.9%. In 2008, Harstad’s final Colorado poll got Mark Udall’s winning margin within 0.3% of the final spread and Barack Obama’s winning margin within 0.1% of the final spread