February 16, 2010 10:36 PM UTC

Big Line Updated

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• by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated The Big Line now that all Q4 finance reports are available. Click below for a brief rundown of some of the changes.

GOVERNOR

Like it or not, elections are often just one big popularity contest, and in Colorado, there are few (if any) politicians who are more popular than Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. For whatever reason, voters seem to really like Hick, and that’s terrible news for McInnis.

McInnis also has a messaging problem with Hickenlooper as his opponent. The things that McInnis wants to say — for example, that he is better for business and the economy, and therefore creating jobs — are really tough to message when Hickenlooper has a better record of those things as a business owner in Denver. That message worked okay against Ritter, but it doesn’t have the same effect against Hickenlooper.

So now what? When Ritter was still thought to be running for re-election, it was a lot easier to consider scenarios where McInnis wound up as Governor. It’s a lot harder now, and it primarily rests with things out of McInnis’ control (something bad has to happen with Hick, the economy has to get worse, etc.) It’s tough to look at McInnis’ campaign now and say, “If he does A, B and C, he’ll win,” because he could do those things and still lose thanks to Hick’s popularity and business background.

SENATE

As we wrote in an earlier post, it’s hard to see how both Ken Buck and Andrew Romanoff will be able to continue to fund the nuts and bolts of their campaign and have enough money left for TV advertising. It doesn’t matter what polls say at this point, because all of that goes out the window come June and July when Michael Bennet, Jane Norton and even Tom Wiens are advertising heavily on TV. If Bennet, Norton and Wiens are on TV, and Buck and Romanoff are not, then there is no way the latter two can compete in their respective primaries. If you can’t go on TV then you just can’t win, and there are no statewide campaigns that have ever proved otherwise.

TREASURER

This race got a lot more interesting with the inclusion of Ali Hasan on the GOP side. In a three-way primary, where all three candidates are capable of spending a lot of money, just about anything could happen. Hasan actually may end up with the advantage because he is so different than the other two candidates. “Different” doesn’t necessarily mean “better,” but both Walker Roberts Stapleton and J.J. Ament have very similar backgrounds and appearances, which provides a great opening for a candidate who is not like the others. Voters are going to confuse Ament and Stapleton to some degree, which is good for Hasan.

CD-4

Republican Cory Gardner is still the favorite for the GOP nomination, but he’s doing everything in his power to screw that up. The more we see of Gardner and the GOP primary in general, the more it looks like Gardner (or whoever wins the primary) will have to go so far to the right in order to do so that they will be irreparably damaged in the General Election. This race went from toss-up a year ago to Rep. Betsy Markey’s race to lose today.

CD-7

Republican Ryan Frazier had a good fundraising quarter, but he faces what looks to be a tough primary opponent in Lang Sias, who has already been endorsed by Sen. John McCain. But the biggest problem that either GOP candidate will face is the fact that Rep. Ed Perlmutter has a strong base in the most populous part of the district, central and northern Jefferson County. It’s hard to see anybody winning this seat who gives up that kind of natural advantage in Jefferson County.