Ken Buck wins the primary by running to Jane Norton’s right. Can he win the general election?
“The evidence shows that most Americans are both philosophically conservative and operationally liberal” (1)
Voters want their taxes cut, but not at the expense of their entitlements. Ken must convince voters that he is the candidate most likely to cut taxes while avoiding talk of cuts to entitlements and government programs.
Policy wonks are interested in the details; voters don’t vote for Policy Wonks.
A variant on this idea is that:
“Americans are conservative egalitarians who accept higher taxes and more government spending so as to give people equal opportunities” (2)
Ken must convince voters that he will keep Federal education, jobs, and income support programs intact while doing a better job of:
1. Limiting fraud by enforcing strict eligibility rules
2. Limiting dependency by enforcing strict time limits and job hunt rules
Voters will give Ken, as a Republican, the benefit of the doubt here.
Finally, Ken must be optimistic and upbeat about our ability (as Americans) to get through this tough time with our dignity intact.
We associate this plan with Reagan, although it predates him. Barack Obama successfully modeled his campaign on it, effectively running to the right of John McCain. (3)
Obama’s upbeat “Hope and Change” clearly paralleled Reagan’s “Morning again in America.” (4)
On taxes, Scott Rasmussen credits Obama with capturing the “tax cut” position:
“… Mr. Obama’s tax-cutting promise became his clearest policy position… he stole the tax issue from the Republicans… 31% of voters thought that a President Obama would cut their taxes. Only 11% expected a tax cut from a McCain administration.” (3)
Others credited with successfully running a “Reagan” campaign are Bill Clinton and the Red State Democrats. They, in effect, ran to the right of their competitors.
If Ken comes across as sincerely upbeat and energetic, convincingly promises tax cuts, and avoid being pinned down on details of Federal spending, he can easily win both the primary and general election by running to the right of Jane Norton.
(1) Benjamin I. Page and Lawrence R. Jacobs, Class War? What Americans Really Think about Economic Inequality, University Of Chicago Press, 4/29/2009
(2) Andrew Gelman, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, Blog Post (viewed 1/27/2010 14:32) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~…
(3) Scott Rasmussen, The Polls Show That Reaganism Is Not Dead, WSJ Opinion Section 11/10/2008 (viewed 1/26/2010 10:39 AM MT) http://online.wsj.com/article/…
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…
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I–for one–wholeheartedly support his efforts to fight hard and even bitterly for the nomination.
You state it as fact yet I see no fact in your diary to back up your assertion that Ken can “easily win both the primary and general election”. Although I must confess I look forward to watching Jane and Ken in their race to the bottom/right.
my dog when his legs move during a nap. He, at least, believes there’s really a rabbit out there. 😉
It sounds like a GOP activist fantasy dreamland to me.
Buck can win, but I don’t think that he has a chance if he continues the “Conservative choice for Colorado” campaign that is currently on the airwaves.
From an electability standpoint, Norton is in a much better position than Buck.
Works for me. 🙂
Jane Norton is trying to position herself as a generic Republican with no strong stand on anything. The voters want change – but they also want people who will stand up and state what they stand for.
Jane offers one of those – Ken offers both.
She’s taking plenty of “strong stands” on just about everything. Here’s a few off her issues page:
http://www.janenortonforcolora…
Looks like it’s about 50/50 in your selection.
Straight from CCW:
Hey, CCW, if you cut taxes then you either cut spending or increase borrowing. What you’re saying is the your candidate is a sniveling coward who won’t level with the voters. What a pile of horse apples.
But rarely is it so explicit.