January 28, 2010 09:18 PM UTC

Ken Buck wins the General Election after running to Jane Norton's Right

•  
• by: CoalCreekWildfire

Ken Buck wins the primary by running to Jane Norton’s right. Can he win the general election?

“The evidence shows that most Americans are both philosophically conservative and operationally liberal” (1)

Voters want their taxes cut, but not at the expense of their entitlements. Ken must convince voters that he is the candidate most likely to cut taxes while avoiding talk of cuts to entitlements and government programs.

Policy wonks are interested in the details; voters don’t vote for Policy Wonks.

A variant on this idea is that:

“Americans are conservative egalitarians who accept higher taxes and more government spending so as to give people equal opportunities” (2)

Ken must convince voters that he will keep Federal education, jobs, and income support programs intact while doing a better job of:

1. Limiting fraud by enforcing strict eligibility rules

2. Limiting dependency by enforcing strict time limits and job hunt rules

Voters will give Ken, as a Republican, the benefit of the doubt here.

Finally, Ken must be optimistic and upbeat about our ability (as Americans) to get through this tough time with our dignity intact.

We associate this plan with Reagan, although it predates him. Barack Obama successfully modeled his campaign on it, effectively running to the right of John McCain. (3)

Obama’s upbeat “Hope and Change” clearly paralleled Reagan’s “Morning again in America.” (4)

On taxes, Scott Rasmussen credits Obama with capturing the “tax cut” position:

“… Mr. Obama’s tax-cutting promise became his clearest policy position… he stole the tax issue from the Republicans… 31% of voters thought that a President Obama would cut their taxes. Only 11% expected a tax cut from a McCain administration.” (3)

Others credited with successfully running a “Reagan” campaign are Bill Clinton and the Red State Democrats. They, in effect, ran to the right of their competitors.

If Ken comes across as sincerely upbeat and energetic, convincingly promises tax cuts, and avoid being pinned down on details of Federal spending, he can easily win both the primary and general election by running to the right of Jane Norton.

(1) Benjamin I. Page and Lawrence R. Jacobs, Class War? What Americans Really Think about Economic Inequality, University Of Chicago Press, 4/29/2009

(2) Andrew Gelman, Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, Blog Post (viewed 1/27/2010 14:32) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~…

(3) Scott Rasmussen, The Polls Show That Reaganism Is Not Dead, WSJ Opinion Section 11/10/2008 (viewed 1/26/2010 10:39 AM MT) http://online.wsj.com/article/…

(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…