8 thoughts on “CO Statewide Voter Distribution”

1. If one is simply going to assume that “turnout is the same everywhere and across all party affiliations” and that the unaffiliated vote is split evenly, we have a winner.  There are more Democrats registered to vote in the state than there are Republicans, so the Democrats win.  One can do the county by county math, but one doesn’t have to do it.

   The truth is more complicated.  In non-Presidential elections, Republicans have significantly higher (and less variable) turnout on average than Democrats.  

   So, a narrow registration lead for Democrats statewide implies that Democratic candidates need to win a disproportionate share of the unaffiliated vote to win, and that turnout has a much bigger impact on the number of Democratic voters than it does on the number of Republican voters.

   Replacing Ritter with Hick in the Governor’s race has probably boosted Democratic turnout, because many core activists had been alienated at a personal level from Ritter – they might have pulled the lever for him but might not have devoted the same kind of enthusiastic volunteer efforts to support him.

   Still, it basically come down to who can capture the unaffiliated vote which roughly speaking tracks the first ring suburbs of Denver (generally speaking, people at the same place on the political spectrum vote the same way statewide, and the bellwether counties are those where the the median voter in the county is close on the political spectrum to the median voter in the state).

   The only race where there is likely to be any meaningful regional variation separate from voter registration breakdowns is in the Governor’s race where McInnis has more of a political history and organization.  But, I suspect that the magnitude of that effect will be pretty small.

   Hickenlooper is quite popular in Denver’s suburbs, so he’ll have an edge over McInnis.

   It isn’t yet clear how a Bennet v. Norton, or a Romanoff v. Norton race would play out in these swing counties.

   The voter for state treasurer tends to be pretty ill informed.  Partisan leanings, name recognition, incumbency and ticket voting driven by the top of the ticket drive outcomes in this race.  Being a Democrat is less of a disadvantage in Colorado than it used to be, Cary Kennedy has more name recognition than any of her Republican opponents, Kennedy is the incumbent, and association with the top  of the ticket Democrats seems unlikely to hurt Kennedy this year.  

   Lots of xenophobe independents are going to choose a Kennedy over an Ali Hasan based upon pure prejudice.  Many women who vote will vote for a women simply for that reason.  some voters will favor Kennedy based upon a presumed (but non-existent) connection to the East Coast political dynasty.

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2. …that CS and Pueblo don’t cancel each other out.  But I wish it were true.

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   1. El Paso County has roughly 600,000 residents, and Pueblo County has just over 150,000. The city of Colorado springs has about 375,000, and Pueblo itself has about 100,000. (Based on 2006 Census figures.)

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   2. If anything, Boulder and Colorado Springs, however, could be argued to balance each other out in a statewide race.

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      1. Do you mean if someone argued that “Boulder” included places outside of Boulder County?  (e.g. Broomfield, Westminster?).

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3. that if every resident of Boulder voted in a given race, no Democratic votes would be needed in the rest of the state and we would still win (the Ds). Is that true, or just urban legend?

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   1. so no, that’s not even a plausible urban legend. Not unless every resident, wood nymph, sacred life force, Prius and spirit guide all voted. Then maybe you’d have a contest.

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