January 15, 2010 12:31 AM UTC

CO Statewide Voter Distribution

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• by: MADCO

So I got to thinking about the math in a modern  CO statewide race.

You can cut the pie several ways but the most basic picture is not encouraging for those voters who want candidates to campaign west of the divide or in the flats way out east.

Colorado Voter reg as of Dec 09

In the most basic analysis…

assume that turnout is the same everywhere and across all party affiliations.

The SOS data shows that over 80% of the voters are in the front range.

Assume that in a R – D split, C-Springs and Pueblo cancel each other’s totals.

I think a candidate who does 70%+ in the rest of the front range wins. Maybe even a little less.

In 1998 Gail Schoettler lost by less than 10,000 votes.

http://www.elections.colorado….

I estimate she did carry a bit more than 70% in the metro area and it wasn’t enough.  

It would be this year.

So: Bennet*, Hickenlooper, Kennedy

You must win Arapahoe, JeffCo and Adams by a big margin.  You will not win ElPaso county.  And while you might win Park and Chaffee (don’t count on it) win big where the the biggest number of registered voters are and you win.

I’m not suggesting that the Governor, Senator, Treasurer or other statewide elected official doesn’t have an obligation to represent the whole state – they do.  I’lm just saying you gotta win first to represent anyone at all.

* presumptive  potential nominee