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January 14, 2010 09:42 PM UTC

A barometer for the 2010 mid-term elections

  • 18 Comments
  • by: Automaticftp

The New York Times has published a story about the election for Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat.  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01…  It is turning out to be a much tighter race than was expected, given that Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately three to one.  The most recent poll, by the Boston Globe, showed Ms. Coakley, the Democratic nominee, with a 15% lead over the Republican candidate, Mr. Brown.

Two thoughts on the race and it’s impact nationally and in Colorado.  

First, I think the suggested tightening of the race underlines that the Democrats are going to have a challenging time in the 2010 midterm elections.  If a formerly fairly obscure state senator can approach within shouting distance, or even manages to win, the Senate seat held by Mr. Edward Kennedy, it is a sure sign that there is a groundswell of public opinion against Democrats.  That is not exactly news, but it should serve to galvanize Democrats locally and nationally to redouble their efforts for the 2010 election cycle.  

The second is a point Ms. Goodnough reports: “Some political experts say that Democrats may well benefit from the new anxiety, if it serves to rally their troops and get out the vote for a special election at an odd time of year.”  That point is relevant both here in Colorado and nationally–Democrats cannot sit back on their hands and whine, as many have, that President Obama and Governor Ritter have not done enough on their pet projects and causes.  A serious scare or loss in Massachussetts could help snap those Democrats out of their petulance and get them back to doing the things that gave Democrats power in the first place.

There has been a great deal of carping among Democratic circles that President Obama has not done enough on their pet causes, and some have suggested that he should limit himself to working on one or two issues with tunnel vision–as long as one of those issues belong to the person making the suggestion.  Putting aside the impossibility of such an approach, I think Democrats need to realize that President Obama has to work on a huge number of issues at the same time, with a huge number of people who have differing positions.  That’s not as easy as people would like to make it out to be.  

The lesson for Democrats, then, is to quit whining and to get back to doing the things that put Democrats in power.  Stop whining that Gov. Ritter vetoed labor-friendly legislation, etc.,  and stop threatening to not be active in the 2010 election cycle.  Get out there going door to door, and fundraising, and calling, etc.  Some Democrats appear to think that the war was won when Obama was inaugurated and fail to realize that his inauguration was the beginning–not the end.  Failure to change that belief could result in what those very Democrats say would be a disaster.  

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18 thoughts on “A barometer for the 2010 mid-term elections”

      2. it shows that Democratic candidates can’t just sleep-walk their way into office.  Coakley’s been near-invisible until this week; lots of griping about that online.

        Seems like she’s waking up, though.  Research 2000 (for dKos?) is reporting she’s got an 8% lead over Brown – about halfway between Rasmussen and the Globe poll, and I’m guessing somewhat close to current real levels of support.

        Brown IMHO can only go down from here.  It was a nice ride while it lasted, and I’m glad he sucked away as much GOP money as he did, but I think in the end he won’t win it – unless Dems really do vote with their apathetic feet and don’t show up.

        1. in this campaign, with democratic men more likely to vote GOP and with lower approval for the Democratic Party from what I’ve seen in the polls. Adding that to the enthusiasm gap and the much higher approval for Brown among Mass independents, could all still point to the possible GOP upset.

          I think Dems are right to be extremely nervous and throw everything at this race. But their message being so shrill and desperate could be recognized by the voters for what it is – just shrill and desperate and not necessarily true.

          1. I know who this is! How ARE you? I heard you are getting married (cometman spilled the beans). I am so delighted to see you here. Welcome, Ender, seriously. Welcome!

            1. Good to see you too, I was looking for you. Yeah, getting married in May and need to move to Florida so it’s stressful with finding new job, etc.

              Other than that, I am doing fine! How are you?

              I’ve been disillusioned with the right end of the spectrum for quite some time, but the dislike for the Right still does not outweigh my “serious” dislike for the Left 🙂 The Mass special election with the moderate Republican who is not a religious right type, energized me slightly.

              1. I cannot even tell you.

                I’m good. Life is pretty good. I’m volunteering for a campaign and business last year was surprisingly decent, considering the crap economy.

                So you’re moving to Florida? What’s the job market like there? I remember you went there for vacation last year. Are you looking forward to the move?

                I’m equally disillusioned with the far left wing of the party–seems they can’t stop themselves from self destructing and taking the rest of the Party down with them.

                This close of an election is the best thing that could happen to the Democratic Party–the rest of us need a serious kick in the ass to get re-energized. Joe Klein had a brilliant editorial recently in TIME about how the far left like Daily Kos is so busy screaming about what they aren’t getting, that they are totally missing what has changed, and what Obama has done and in such a short time. His basic editorial message was that the “progressive” part of the wing is doing more to damage the President and the Democratic Party than the Republicans are at this point. They’ve become their own worst enemy. One of our local bloggers, JeffCo wrote a brilliant and well articulated diary on the subject about a week and a half ago.

                By the way, Coakley’s gonna win so get ready to start crying. 😉

                1. it’s good to hear that you are doing well. The company I work for is doing decently enough that I wish I could remain with them. Especially being promoted in the last couple of years. The job market in Florida is horrible. But my fiancГ©e’s career is more important at this point as she is just starting out, and it’s important to secure these first few years.

                  I am looking forward to being with her. I just don’t want to be unemployed there 🙂

                  Daily Kos is not representative of the Democratic Party. The far left is over represented and the more extreme elements are much more mainstream there. I doubt they have  all that much influence or are even noticed for their whining. And it is because they are not truly representative of the Democratic Party, the issues in Washington are being solved the way they are.

                  It’s funny but as I was typing this comment, our HR Director came by all excited by the prospect of “stopping the tyranny in its tracks” on Tuesday, by defeating Coakley… heh. Yeah, he is not a big fan of Obama.

              2. but have you seen The Hurt Locker? I rented it Tuesday night and it is just devastating. Brilliant. If it doesn’t get an Oscar nomination, I’ll be stunned.  

                  1. I hear it’s incredible. Did you know that the director of The Hurt Locker is James Cameron’s ex-wife? 🙂 That could get interesting at Oscar time.

                    1. Yes, Avatar is incredible imo. Not a complicated story, but still pleasant along with stunning visuals. Really worth seeing in 3d.

                      Not sure if either will be Oscarized though 🙂

  2. between political unknowns in an off year does not strike me as a squeaker.  I’m willing to bet that the “don’t know” share of that poll is pretty darn high too, particularly among unaffiliated voters.

    Any new face is not going to poll as well as political legend Edward Kennedy.  And, New England is not a Republican free zone, Republicans may be a minority there in the wake of partisan realignment, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t plenty of Republicans who would favor a generic Republican nominee in the electorate.

  3. 1. Email is ideal for personal exchanges.

    2. Let’s not declare the Democratic race in Massachusetts over until at least some of the votes are counted. At least give the machine a chance to stuff some boxes! Pending that, it seems a tad premature to draw conclusions about what unhappy Democrats in Colorado ought to be doing and saying, based on what Massachusetts voters have not yet done.

    3. Having lived in Boston & environs for many years, I’ll be very surprised indeed if Coakley doesn’t win. That said, wasn’t it Tip O’Neill (D-Cambridge) who said “all politics is local”? In Massachusetts, the Republicans are so invisible that the natural human need for more than one political party is single-handedly borne by the Democrats. IF Coakley failed to bring together Democrats from across the political spectrum, perhaps that’s the lesson for Colorado.

    Notice that I put the onus on Coakley, not on rank-and-file Democrats. IF One End of the party spectrum chooses to reject and ignore the Other End–which certainly could be demonstrated on this blog, if not in the Colorado Democratic Party of Ritter Bennet & Loopedeloop, Ltd.–then it won’t be a Big Surprise when that Other End of the party picks election day to take a hike in the woods. Reason: they don’t support the positions of the people on the ballot, not any of them.

    As is so often the case, it’s the advocate’s own words that provide the best refutation. Automaticftp’s post is all about unhappy Democrats on the left shutting up (quit yer whinin’) and flying straight, jus’ like Rahm, Bill, Mike, and Loopy et al. tell ’em to. Well, please note: 17th Street may be One Way, but Colfax isn’t (as it were), meaning that it smells like the National Stock Show right after dinner when certain politicos prance into the room announcing who the candidate is going to be, as per… per who? Rahm Emanuel? Big Bill One Term? LoopdeLoDo?

    Ain’t gonna work that way gents, whatever you want, however you think it outta, however wretched the consequences. And in the end, it’s the candidates who lose who will bear the blame, not the voters who didn’t vote for ’em.

    1. Coakley failed to bring together Democrats from across the political spectrum, perhaps that’s the lesson for Colorado.

      She’s in a tightening race because presumably the moderate D’s are leaving for the R candidate.  If she runs to the middle to get them back, she alienates the left and they stay home. She loses.

      If she runs to the left to motivate the base, she loses more moderate, centrist D’s. She loses.

      If she runs to the center left (apparently what she’s been doing because it’s who she is – “apparently” because I don’t know MA D’s well anymore.)    She gets crucified by the left and the center, but she probably wins (D3, R1 in overal registration)   if the D’s show up.

      And your conclusion is that she’s an ineffective candidate cause she can’t hold it together and motivate turnout from the center left.  

      If happens in CO 2010 (it won’t) say hello to Senator Norton (or Wiens if he has real dough)

      1. Did I say Coakley was running to the right? My far-distant reading is that (a) she’s ahead; (b) she’s a lousy campaigner, relatively speaking; (c) her Republican opponent is a showman in a pickup or somesuch who, up ’til now, has distorted his real position.

        My point was: Democrats in Colorado shouldn’t spring into motion, as seemed to be recommended, on the basis of Massachusetts. Not yet, anyway.

        My other point was: Rightist Democrats want the left to shut up and do it their way; Bill’s way, even though he ain’t runnin’ and was runnin’ behind when he was runnin’; and Rahm’s way–he’ll tell us who we need for Senator! (Not.)

        Bit hard to see Romanoff v Bennet as Left v Right. Bennet’s sin (so say I) was to decide in February, a month after the elected president had taken office (and at least six months before AR entered the race!), to decide it was his place to challenge Obama’s call for a strong stimulus package, in the name of fiscal probity. Udall had been elected and thereby earned the right to say whatever he wanted; Bennet hadn’t been, and therefore had no right to give a hard time to the president who had carried Colorado. Okay, Bennet didn’t want to shut up then, and I don’t want to shut up now. Telling me to stop yer whinin’ and git in line falls a hair short of persuasive. Hard to see where Massachusetts enters into it at all, unless they’re downhill skiing on Cold (?) Cape Cod nowadays.

  4. For  anyone not paying attention, the election is next week.

    And UNH does a decent job polling.  I especially love how they give detailed access to the data and methodology.

    http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent…

    I can’t help but notice that Joseph Kennedy is polling at 5%.  I gotta believe that at least some of that 5% is casually interested D’s thinking another Kennedy is on the ballot. (Aww, isn’t that cute)   But he’s the LIberty Party candidate , a Ron Paul-like candidate who has no chance of winning (not that wining is everything)  but will pull votes from the R  once people figure out who he is.

    I like how the NYT article (and the Boston Globe article mentioned)  talk about the 60 seat majority.  The D’s don’t have a 60 seat majority in reality or in practice.

    In reality its 58- 40 – 2

    And in practice it’s generally 59-1-40.

    The bigger number is the 40. IF the R’s can get to 41, their obstructionist strategy becomes almost impenetrable.  I say “almost” because in reality what will happen is they’ll start to work together a little.

    But it’s that 41 that is really exciting to a lot of voters, R’s, of course, But also U’s and D’s who like to see Congress and the White House held by different parties.

    Also, can’t help but notice that the R candidate is running against Obama and Pelosi and Reid.

    All of this is illustrative for Colorado. the big difference here, of course, is that MA is 3:1 D:R.  

    Colorado is  1/3. 1/3, 1/3 D, R, U

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