January 03, 2010 06:34 PM UTC

GOP Tantalized By Colo. House Prospects, But Dems Have The Strength

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• by: donscottknox

(A companion piece to the Senate write up from Friday – promoted by Middle of the Road)

Here’s more holiday weekend election analysis. This time we focus on the Colorado House.

There’s a reason for Colorado Republicans’ optimism for reclaiming the Colorado House in November 2010.

According to a State Bill Colorado analysis, it’s this: In those districts where one party dominates (defined as 40 percent of total voter registration), Republicans enjoy a 23-20 lead over their rivals, the Democrats.

But here’s the rub.

Of 22 competitive seats, 18 are now held by Democrats, and 14 of those are held by Democratic incumbents who are running again.

More analysis after the jump.

One key to GOP control

… holding their four currently competitive seats: HD-59 (Ellen Roberts is running in the Senate), HD-39 (David Balmer), HD-30 (Kevin Priola) and HD-22 (Ken Summers). This keeps them steady at 27.

After that, they’ll need six pickups.

Where they’ll go first.

There are four competitive seats in which incumbents aren’t re-running. In Boulder’s HD-11, Jack Pommer is term-limited. Buffie McFadyen is term-limited in Pueblo’s HD-47. Mike Merrifield is term-limited in Colorado Springs’ HD-18. The fourth district without a Democrat incumbent is HD-61 on the Western Slope. It has an incumbent, Kathleen Curry, but last week she affiliated away from the Democratic Party to undertake a never-before-successful write-in candidacy as an unaffiliated.

If the Republicans manage to take all four seats, it means they need to pick off only two Democratic incumbents.

And after that.

The 14 Democratic incumbents are HD-17’s Dennis Apuan, HD-23’s Max Tyler, HD-24’s Sue Schafer, HD-26’s Andy Kerr, HD-27’s Sara Gagliardi, HD-29’s Debbie Benefield, HD-31’s Judy Solano, HD-33’s Dianne Primavera, HD-34’s John Soper, HD-38’s Joe Rice, HD-50’s Jim Riesberg, HD-52’s John Kefalas, HD-53’s Randy Fischer and HD-56’s Christine Scanlan.

Read the full analysis at http://www.statebillnews.com/2…

Questions for Pols readers:

1. Can GOP hold in Priola’s district?

2. Can GOP hold in Roberts’ (former) district?

3. Of the four up-for-grabs seats (Pommer, McFadyen, Merrifield and Curry), how many go GOP and how many go Dem?

4. Of the Dem incumbents:

a) What’s GOP strategy for HD-38 (Joe Rice has won twice)?

b) How vulnerable is Gagliardi, who has won twice (HD-27)?

c) Of the other incumbents, who holds and who falls?

5. Does it matter whether parties have candidates in place by January of the election year, or can that be overcome?

6. Any other election thoughts?