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January 03, 2010 06:34 PM UTC

GOP Tantalized By Colo. House Prospects, But Dems Have The Strength

  • 11 Comments
  • by: donscottknox

(A companion piece to the Senate write up from Friday – promoted by Middle of the Road)

Here’s more holiday weekend election analysis. This time we focus on the Colorado House.

There’s a reason for Colorado Republicans’ optimism for reclaiming the Colorado House in November 2010.

According to a State Bill Colorado analysis, it’s this: In those districts where one party dominates (defined as 40 percent of total voter registration), Republicans enjoy a 23-20 lead over their rivals, the Democrats.

But here’s the rub.

Of 22 competitive seats, 18 are now held by Democrats, and 14 of those are held by Democratic incumbents who are running again.

More analysis after the jump.

One key to GOP control

… holding their four currently competitive seats: HD-59 (Ellen Roberts is running in the Senate), HD-39 (David Balmer), HD-30 (Kevin Priola) and HD-22 (Ken Summers). This keeps them steady at 27.

After that, they’ll need six pickups.

Where they’ll go first.

There are four competitive seats in which incumbents aren’t re-running. In Boulder’s HD-11, Jack Pommer is term-limited. Buffie McFadyen is term-limited in Pueblo’s HD-47. Mike Merrifield is term-limited in Colorado Springs’ HD-18. The fourth district without a Democrat incumbent is HD-61 on the Western Slope. It has an incumbent, Kathleen Curry, but last week she affiliated away from the Democratic Party to undertake a never-before-successful write-in candidacy as an unaffiliated.

If the Republicans manage to take all four seats, it means they need to pick off only two Democratic incumbents.

And after that.

The 14 Democratic incumbents are HD-17’s Dennis Apuan, HD-23’s Max Tyler, HD-24’s Sue Schafer, HD-26’s Andy Kerr, HD-27’s Sara Gagliardi, HD-29’s Debbie Benefield, HD-31’s Judy Solano, HD-33’s Dianne Primavera, HD-34’s John Soper, HD-38’s Joe Rice, HD-50’s Jim Riesberg, HD-52’s John Kefalas, HD-53’s Randy Fischer and HD-56’s Christine Scanlan.

Read the full analysis at http://www.statebillnews.com/2…

Questions for Pols readers:

1. Can GOP hold in Priola’s district?

2. Can GOP hold in Roberts’ (former) district?

3. Of the four up-for-grabs seats (Pommer, McFadyen, Merrifield and Curry), how many go GOP and how many go Dem?

4. Of the Dem incumbents:

a) What’s GOP strategy for HD-38 (Joe Rice has won twice)?

b) How vulnerable is Gagliardi, who has won twice (HD-27)?

c) Of the other incumbents, who holds and who falls?

5. Does it matter whether parties have candidates in place by January of the election year, or can that be overcome?

6. Any other election thoughts?

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11 thoughts on “GOP Tantalized By Colo. House Prospects, But Dems Have The Strength”

  2. I do agree with you: Boulder and Pueblo are outside possibilities. However, I will note that Pommer’s district isn’t Levy’s (6 points fewer Ds) and McFadyen’s district isn’t Pace’s (15 points fewer Ds).

    But giving back those two seats, it still means GOP needs to beat four of 14 incumbents.

    In a mid-term election, when turnout is light and without Obama bump, how achievable is that?

  5. handily as incumbent in 2008 and is recently back from his 4th tour in Iraq, having served by request on the staff of 3 star Gen. Helmick, the commanding officer of the Multi-National Security Transition Command at the time.  

    He is sure to retain strong support from various vets organizations, unaffiliated voters and significant Republican crossover support.  He is a moderate who sometimes angers his Dem supporters who still strongly support him over any R alternative. He has been a go-to guy for Rs looking for a D co-sponsor in across the aisle efforts.  First elected in 2006 and made everyone’s list of most effective freshmen during his first term.

    Put it all together, he’s just right for this purple district so there is little chance of the GOP regaining this traditionally R district until Col. Rice decides to give it up or is term limited out.  When he is term limited out it will take a close to equally special D to retain this seat and that will be hard to come by.

  6. In HD-18, Pete Lee will run as the D for Merrifield’s old seat.  The two possible R’s are both on the Colorado Springs City Council: Randy Purvis and Tom Gallagher.  Purvis is considered by many to be the smartest member of the Council and has held his seat, off and on, since 1987.  Good name recognition and would be a formidable opponent to Lee but rumors are that he feels he can’t step away from his Law Practice to devote the time necessary to serve in the Legislature.  If Gallagher (considered by many to be the dumbest member of the Council) runs as the R, Lee will win with 60-65% of the vote.

    In HD-17, Dennis Apaun would normally be considered very vulnerable but the R’s are grumbling internally between the moderates and the TEA baggers so will probably end up giving Apaun the victory by default.

  7. No way are they gonna take back the legislature…

    1. Priola’s seat is the only seat the GOP holds with a D advantage and may not have the luxury of running against a generally bad dem candidate this time, not to mention he’s hardly been a moderate during his first year.

    2. Roberts’ seat has been held by Republicans for quite a while and there’s no real Democratic trend in the district so I’d say they’re more likely to hold that then Priola’s.

    3. the Repubs will never gain a boulder county seat in this decade!  As for McFadyen their chances are the best of the open seats in my opinion, there’s no democratic trend and without Buffie this seat is swingy.  I don’t see how they retake Merrifield or Curry’s seats unless the shit really hits the fan.

    4.  I’d say Apuan and Gagliardi are the most vulnerable, but if they both do what they need to to appeal to their districts they’ll be hard to knock off, especially with a teabaggy candidate, of the 2 I’d say Apuan is most likely to get the boot.

    5. With races as local as these there’s still time, but not much since the caucuses are in March…

    So if the Republicans manage to hold their own and retake HD47, HD17 and HD27, which is difficult by itself, they’d still come up short and the Dems would be back to their post-2004 majority of 35 seats.

  8. Republican Senator Lundberg is very vulnerable to a District that is becoming more and more Democratic. The Democrats have a well known and popular candidate to challenge Lundberg.

    Ellen Roberts is a weak candidate in the Senate Seat formerly held by Jim Isgar and the appointed Democrat will likely hold the seat.

    The Democrats have a very strong candidate running to succeed Roberts in the House.  

    When the smoke has cleared next November the Democrats will likely be exactly where they are today in both Houses.  The Republicans just are not fielding a strong group of candidates.  

  9. If you believe in the strength of incumbency, the 2010 Democrats again walk away with the Colorado House. But if this is an election where voters blame some, or most, of the statehouse incumbents for the state’s problems, Republicans have a shot to regain. I just hope that people will vote for someone who will uplift our economy and bring us wealth and not the other way around.

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