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December 04, 2009 06:49 PM UTC

National Unemployment Rate Drops

  • 46 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

From the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. job losses in November posted the smallest drop since the start of the recession and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, a sign the labor market is finally healing as the economy recovers.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 last month, slowing down from a downwardly revised 111,000 drop seen in October, as the recovery encouraged some companies to retain workers, the Labor Department said Friday.

It was the best showing since December 2007, when the recession began and payrolls had risen by 120,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a payroll decrease of 125,000…

The payroll data reflect a notable improvement in the jobs market. In the prior three months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month.

“We are one step closer today to the stabilization of the labor market,” said Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. “The massive job cuts during the financial crisis last fall were too aggressive and firms will need to rehire staff within the next couple of months.”

Nobody’s saying we are out of the woods by any stretch, but obviously this is good news for the American worker–and for Democrats, whose political fortunes are linked at the hip to what happens with the economy over the next 11 months. If the economy isn’t noticeably better by next summer, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to win no matter what they say or do.

It’s also worth pointing out that Colorado’s unemployment rate, last estimated at 6.9%, is substantially below the falling national average. You’d think that this would complicate the doomsaying from the GOP against Governor Bill Ritter, but we fully expect all this talk of “recovery” to get enthusiastically pooh-poohed at every step between now and next November–no matter what happens in the real world.

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46 thoughts on “National Unemployment Rate Drops”

    1. Your merchant of misery spin is pathetic.  You show your brothers and sisters no dignity.

      First jobs, then consumer spending – that’s everyones goal.  Notice, nothing about increased government spending.

      Almost Creating Jobs

      http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/…

      Construction and manufacturing, the two most troubled sectors of the job market, shed jobs losing 27,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively. These losses were offset by increases in health and education employment and a surge in hiring of temporary workers. While temporary jobs are not the sustained employment the economy needs for recovery, they are another indication that companies are needing to restaff.

      By losing only 11,000 jobs we have flattened the curve and that is great news; the problem is we need to create 120,000 jobs a month just to keep pace.

      Meanwhile, back in Denver the Union Bosses are getting it.  By keeping Illegal Aliens off payroll you put American citizens and union members on payroll.  The economic damage of sanctuary city policies has destroyed the jobs and payrolls for citizen workers.

      Nevitt and Faatz Demand Denver Check Illegal Alien Contractors’ status

      http://www.denverpost.com/sear…

      1. So what you are saying is that Government spending is helping people get jobs?

        So now do you support the stimulus or do you hate all workers not just the unionized ones.

        1. The GDP numbers revised down just before thanksgiving show the real impact of ARRA bailouts and restrictive anti business policies.  Capital flows like water dumb-dumb.  

          Lets take out Illegal Aliens and put Americans back to work ++ increase peoples wages

          Nevitt and Faatz Demand Denver Check Illegal Alien Contractors’ status

              1. I’m dying to see Faatz and Nevitt front Tancredo’s Back to Work ballot measure. http://www.denverpost.com/ci_1…

                Finally, someones taking the lead for the American Citizen and American Taxpayer.

                Tancredo = Union Bosses = Faatz & Nevitt = Payroll for Citizens

                Work not welfare, lets put America back to work

    1. Is awfully similar to leading vs. following economic indicators:

      It’s Obama’s down stock market

      It’s Obama’s down GDP

      It’s Obama’s growing unemployment rate

      before landing on:

      The President has nothing to do with the economy.

      1. The US Chamber of Commerce – their members hire and pay people, just sometimes they also hire Illegal Aliens – has for months told DC (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) that the Democrat leadership positions on these policies are a danger to the economy.  

        1. Cap ‘n Tax

        2. Card check-forced arbitration

        3. Bailouts: ARRA performance to date and a redux of ARRA (the crack cocaine of corporate America)

        4. Healthcare “reform”

        2. to use the proper “Democratic” instead of what you see as a pejorative term, Democrat.  We get that since you have to see democracy as good and Democrats as bad you hate to label the other side with anything positive.  

          Be that as it may, since the word is clearly an adjective in the phrase you use above, it has to be “Democratic leadership” according to the rules of grammar. Insisting on using a noun instead of an adjective in phrases such as “Democrat Party” and “Democrat Leadership” just makes you look illiterate which detracts from your credibility, bargain basement low as it already is.  

        3. …so anything they have to say is purely for the benefit of Big Biz. Fuck them.

          The economic recovery is going to be driven by small business growth and hiring. The USCC does everything they can to ignore their small biz members.

          http://www.fastcompany.com/blo…

          That’s a Business website, ‘tad. Not some asshat with a tiny mind and a tiny-er mind.

          1. Don’t forget they were against Right-to-Work too.

            Wake up Dan [shoulder shake] that trance your in is danergous to your health.

            The CBO says that under the Democrats’ Senate bill, the average premium would rise by 10 to 13 percent in the individual market, compared to premiums being lowered by 5 to 8 percent by the House Republican bill — a swing in costs of between 15 and 21 percent. In the small-business market, the CBO says that the Democrats’ Senate bill would raise premiums by up to 1 percent or lower them by up to 2 percent, compared to the House Republican bill, which would lower premiums by 7 to 10 percent — a swing of 5 to 11 percent. (The CBO says that each bill would have the same effect on the large-employer market, except that the Senate bill would dramatically increase premiums for “Cadillac” plans.) What are these two bills’ costs in their real first decades in operation, according to CBO projections? The House GOP bill would cost $64 billion, and the Democrats’ Senate bill would cost $2.5 trillion — a swing of $2.44 trillion and a ratio of 1 to 41.

            http://www.weeklystandard.com/…

            1. I’d have more respect (slightly) if you would link to the Cato Institute or the Heritage Foundation.

              But a Ring-Wing rag like The Weekly Standard?

              I was going to link to a page on The Economist website, and then I realized it probably had too many big words for you.  

              1. I’ve cut, pasted, and linked fantastic factual material from the economist and the cato institute for years.  Hell I did it under my first handle here on Pols …

                In fact you were probably still a buck private when I was reading the economist.

      1. a lot of non-sustainable temporary workers, at least they are getting through the holidays with dignity.

        Still 40-60% of contractors remain on the soup line.

        Rule #1 do no damage, Pelosi action out of the gate … do damage.

        Ritter, ONG rules, tax hikes, fee hikes, etc…….

        Pelosi, the list is too long.

        1. Temps are always the first hired in a recovery. But you really don’t care about facts.

          You are more interested in non sequitors and oral leakage.

          1. I’m praying for my fellow Americans and their bankers.  God will bless them with a quick unified view to again begin to move capital and thus create jobs and payroll.

  4. The unemployment rate is still going up. Yes this is a good sign but before we break out the champagne, an immense number of people are still out of work, an immense number of people are underemployed, and it’s still not clear how we are going to create the demand that will require new jobs.

    Meanwhile the same people in Washington who said we had to do anything & everything necessary to save Wall St now talks about how we are very limited in what we can do to save Main St.

    We’re still in a crappy place. And we’re still looking at a Republican resurgence in ’10 because of this crappy situation and limited response.

    1. Hours worked also went up.  These are signs I expected to see in the spring.

      In addition, these jobs weren’t retail jobs which means the seasonality of the jobs is more limited.

      This is the most encouraging jobs report in well over a year.

      1. And this economy shifts slowly. I just wanted to also keep it in perspective – we’re celebrating a drop in increased unemployment. And the real rate (including people who have given up and under-employment) is probably closer to 20%.

        We’re still in a world of hurt.

  5. …last month, and this month, will be largely laid off in January and February.  Maybe all of them and then some, as sales will slow way down while everyone recuperates from holiday spending.  So the “positive” trend will reverse itself entirely early next year.

    1. The hiring is NOT in retail.

      If you look inside the numbers it is NOT seasonal.

      All know when it comes to economics I am an objectivist.  

      These numbers are good.

          1. …I’m going to punk you out on it.

            It’s bullshit. It’s not based on any accepted economic analysis, and it came from some no-name’s Blog.

            How many times do I have to call you out? Are you that busy with your World of Warcraft Character?

            Give it up….

          2. without sourcing it? Drives me nuts.

            You know what else drives me nuts? Unjustified conclusions. You and Mankiw (the latter of whom I actually have respect for) love to put up this graph, but you fixate on the idea that it means that the stimulus didn’t work (even though the CBO just said it did) while ignoring the more plausible possibility that the original forecasts were just wrong. Econometric forecasting is incredibly difficult, and hardly ever accurate, and now you’re surprised that the economy is differing from our regression models? Yeah, real smart move there dim-wit.

    2. And that these are not seasonal or retail hires, just like Danny says.

      But let’s take a moment and reflect on why you want America to fail, shall we? Gloom and doom until the first Tuesday of next November, is it?

      Pathetic.

  6.    Now that the Obama Recovery is starting to kick in and lift us out of the Bush-Cheney Depression, the GOP is left praying for a terrorist attack somewhere.  That’s about the only card they have left to play.

      Pathetic.

    1. If unemployment is over 8% next September, it’s going to be very very bad for us Dems. If it’s under 6% it’s going to be very very bad for the Repubs. Anything in between and we’ll have a competitive environment.

      1. I’m a bit fuzzy on the actual numbers, though I think your general idea is right.

        As the economy supposedly improves, we’re likely to have a spike in unemployment as people who’ve fallen off the charts start looking for work again.  It may be that a solid job market and a reasonable drop in unemployment are enough, and that we don’t need to hit 8% to get a feel-good effect.

        And 6% is an awfully low target; The “structural” unemployment rate for the United States is usually quoted between 4% and ~6.5%.  If the U.S. hits 6% unemployment in the next year or two, consider me pre-emptively surprised, and consider the Republicans royally screwed…

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