November 17, 2009 04:49 AM UTC

The Really Big Event of 2010...

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• by: JO

(Other than the Winter Olympics, of course. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

…is not the election. It’s the census.

Let us admit at the start that the census is a political event above all. It places enormous importance on the outcome of elections for the state house and senate.

I gather that Colorado isn’t expected to gain or lose any seats in Congress, but the census is an opportunity to redraw districts. To that end, I recommend this article: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~…

The essence is that many districts are drawn to incorporate continguous areas, which are packed with Democrats, whereas larger areas tend to be more Republican. Although the analysis is of Florida, it describes CO to a tee: CDs 1, 2, and 7 are not only safe Democratic districts, but by a wide margin. CD4, to take one example, could be redrawn to include parts of CDs 1, 2, and 7 without endangering that majority.

Of course, for the more radically inclined, there is the concept of multi-member districts: combining 1, 2, 7, 4 and possibly 6: one district, five representatives. I haven’t done the math, but I suspect that such a district could well elect five Democrats safely, instead of 3 safely and 1 up for grabs. Similarly, shouldn’t parts of 5 and 6 be jammed together to create a 95% Republican district?