( – promoted by Colorado Pols)
Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, whose “The Fix” blog is popular reading for political junkies, ranks Betsy Markey’s House seat at No. 9 on his list of seats most likely to change party hands in 2010.
Colorado’s 4th Congressional District wasn’t on Cillizza’s radar in July, when he last rated House races across the country, but it is now. I think Cillizza is a good barometer of how Colorado’s 4th Congressional District race is viewed inside the Beltway. Here’s how Cillizza summed up the race in his “Friday House Line” blog:
“Rep. Betsy Markey’s (D) victory was a culmination of years of dissatisfaction directed at former Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) from voters in the district. Musgrave was far more conservative than her constituents in this eastern Colorado seat, and did little to combat the image that she cared little about constituent services and everything about her national profile (such as it was). Republicans are very excited about the candidacy of state Rep. Cory Gardner and Markey must show she can win a race without Musgrave as her opponent. The seat is narrowly divided along partisan lines with Obama losing it narrowly (49 percent) last November.”
In his final assessment of the 2008 campaign in late October, Cillizza had Colorado’s 4th as the ninth-most likely to change party control, saying, “Markey is likely to end Musgrave’s congressional career in four days time.”
Cillizza is the first of the Washington pundits who analyze House races to say Markey’s seat is in jeopardy, but he probably won’t be the last. As of now, the Cook Political Report, CQPolitics and the Rothenberg Political Report give Markey the edge in the 2010 race. However, at this point in the 2008 campaign those analysts gave the edge to Musgrave, only to later say the race was tilting toward Markey.
Obviously, Cillizza’s assessment is quite a bit different than The Big Line on Colorado Pols. For what it’s worth, I think The Fix is more on the mark than The Big Line in handicapping CO4. I think Gardner-Markey is an extremely tight matchup right now, and will continue to be into next fall. (This is assuming Gardner gets the GOP nomination, which is what the national party clearly thinks will happen.)
For the links on all this, see my Coloradoan blog: http://bit.ly/10Rq5n
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Why is Gardner a threat especially? Or is it just the voter registration gap and the fact it is Markey’s first term?
Historically conservative but perhaps changing in some areas. Markey will have the advantage of incumbency – Gardner will appeal to the sizable conservative bloc, plus may not come across as nutty as others in his party.
As I said, no charge for the above – and it’s worth every penny.
It’s more the partisan split of the district, though the GOP is high on Gardner as they try to push through fresh faces. Of course, he’s never been tested in a tight campaign, so that’s an unknown. It’s not an accident that this was a Republican district for 36 years. Though the demographics have changed, the GOP still has the strong registration edge. The unaffiliateds ultimately will determine this race. Markey won them easily in 2008, as did Udall over Schaffer in the Senate race, though less so. If the Democrats are weakened nationally in 2010, it will play out in CO4.
Cory comes across as reasonable and friendly — he does have good charisma for a candidate (and the numbers are still rough for a dem there)
except when he’s pandering to Birther.
I’ll rephrase — he (usually) comes across as reasonable and friendly. Sometimes he comes across as a crazy person.
As a partisan filibusterer, especially when his whole legislative agenda has nothing to do with what’s good for his constituents, but boils down to “what third-reading amendments can I introduce?”
I’m not saying I like the guy. I’m just saying when you meet him in person he comes across well — that’s important.
i know his record — I know he’s crazy far right. I also know people up in that area really like him.
That’s the question.
races I’ll be working on. I can’t claim to know Ms. Markey well, and Mr. Gardner not at all, but I think Ms. Markey is doing a good job and cares about her constituents–something that has not always been the case.
At least I hope so. She has a lot going for her and to beat an incumbent like Musgrave shows which direction the country is heading. I think Democrats have more to worry about with other Democrats.
Has anyone read the latest assessment about the economy and capitalism? According to
Marc Faber we’re in for some bad times and in my opinion we probably deserve it for the way we’ve allowed greed and profits to control our politicians and country.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
With her co sponsorship of the union boss special
card check, forced arbitration and outsized administrative fining
she should be collecting millions in forced dues from union bosses as payback.
And don’t forget that pledging of Dave Owens great-great grandchildren’s earnings for the upgrades to Murtha Int’l, ACORN, NEA outreach, etc…
Because we always figure out a way to muddle through and then zoom on in to the future.
I believe last quarter he raised more money than other non-incumbent Congressional candidate in the Country.
keep in mind Markey won by 10 points. And I don’t think her district wants to go back to someone way out on the right. They’ve seen that story and they didn’t like it.
But you have to remember that McCain carried the district narrowly against Obama, in the face of the biggest Democratic surge in decades. So 4th district unaffiliated voters who hold the balance of power will back those they see as moderates, such as McCain and Markey. What that means is that you’re going to see both sides in 2010 trying to paint the other guy as extreme.
You’d think Betsy Markey could pull 2% more. I’m not saying it’s going to be a blowout for Markey, but she’s done everything she needs to do to get re-elected IMO.
She’s been more open to her constituents than any of the rest of the Colorado delegation. Whether people agree with her on every issue is irrelevant. CD-4 voters care about their representatives actually listening to them.
I agree with Bob that this will be a tight race, but if Betsy wins, she could turn into quite a major plyer in Colorado politics. Much the same way Hank Brown used CD-4 as a stepping off point to the Senate, it’s possible Markey could end up there in 2016 if Bennet or Romanoff can’t seal the deal in 2010.
Are you on crack…she will never be in the Senate. Get real!
She’ll never be a congresswoman, get real!
Markey has a bright future in this state, which is more than I can say for the Republican party.