September 26, 2009 03:17 AM UTC

Washington Post's "The Fix" puts Markey on endangered list

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• by: BobMoore

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, whose “The Fix” blog is popular reading for political junkies, ranks Betsy Markey’s House seat at No. 9 on his list of seats most likely to change party hands in 2010.

Colorado’s 4th Congressional District wasn’t on Cillizza’s radar in July, when he last rated House races across the country, but it is now. I think Cillizza is a good barometer of how Colorado’s 4th Congressional District race is viewed inside the Beltway. Here’s how Cillizza summed up the race in his “Friday House Line” blog:

“Rep. Betsy Markey’s (D) victory was a culmination of years of dissatisfaction directed at former Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) from voters in the district. Musgrave was far more conservative than her constituents in this eastern Colorado seat, and did little to combat the image that she cared little about constituent services and everything about her national profile (such as it was). Republicans are very excited about the candidacy of state Rep. Cory Gardner and Markey must show she can win a race without Musgrave as her opponent. The seat is narrowly divided along partisan lines with Obama losing it narrowly (49 percent) last November.”

In his final assessment of the 2008 campaign in late October, Cillizza had Colorado’s 4th as the ninth-most likely to change party control, saying, “Markey is likely to end Musgrave’s congressional career in four days time.”

Cillizza is the first of the Washington pundits who analyze House races to say Markey’s seat is in jeopardy, but he probably won’t be the last. As of now, the Cook Political Report, CQPolitics and the Rothenberg Political Report give Markey the edge in the 2010 race. However, at this point in the 2008 campaign those analysts gave the edge to Musgrave, only to later say the race was tilting toward Markey.

Obviously, Cillizza’s assessment is quite a bit different than The Big Line on Colorado Pols. For what it’s worth, I think The Fix is more on the mark than The Big Line in handicapping CO4. I think Gardner-Markey is an extremely tight matchup right now, and will continue to be into next fall. (This is assuming Gardner gets the GOP nomination, which is what the national party clearly thinks will happen.)

For the links on all this, see my Coloradoan blog: http://bit.ly/10Rq5n