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September 11, 2009 11:56 PM UTC

Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet

  • 33 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Rasmussen Reports decided to drop a poll into the field on Colorado’s U.S. Senate race at an unfortunate time. While the poll shows that incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is not very popular, the matchups between potential challengers Ken Buck and Ryan Frazier are all but irrelevant now that Jane Norton has entered the race on the Republican side.

But rather than focus on what the Rasmussen poll does not tell us about 2010, let’s look instead at the small nuggets of valuable information that it does contain.

Bennet outpolls Buck 43-37, but trails Frazier 40-39. While giddy Frazier supporters (both of them) will no doubt point to this as proof that their man has what it takes to be the next GOP Senator from Colorado, that’s not the case. Looking a little deeper into the poll shows why:

Fourteen percent (14%) of Colorado voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Bennet while 18% have a Very Unfavorable view. His opponents are less well known and nearly half the state’s voters don’t have even a soft impression of either candidate. Buck is viewed Very Favorably by 9% and Very Unfavorably by 7%. For Frazier, the numbers are 6% and 6% respectively.

As you can see, Frazier outpolls Buck in a head-to-head despite the fact (or rather, because of the fact) that nobody knows who he is. In this poll, Frazier basically plays the roll of the “generic Republican candidate,” and what voters are saying is that right now they’ll take an unknown Republican candidate over Bennet…but that doesn’t mean they would take Frazier. This would be bad news for Bennet even if he wasn’t facing a difficult primary challenge from former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, but it’s also not terribly different from what a lot of elected officials are seeing around the country: People just don’t like the incumbents.

To illustrate that last point, take a look at the toplines. Bennet’s total popularity rating is at 43% — not good, certainly, but not awful for an unknown Senator, either. Buck is at 35% and Frazier at 26% when it comes to favorability, which gets back to our earlier point about the head-to-head matchups. Voters appear to like a generic Republican candidate better than Bennet, but Buck and Frazier certainly aren’t popular enough to fill that role. Would Norton poll better in this regard? Perhaps.

The biggest concern for Bennet is in the 34% negative rating he holds. This is pretty high for someone whom the public really doesn’t know at all. It’s a lot easier to move from unknown to favorable than it is from unliked to favorable, and Bennet needs to hurry up on fixing this problem before it starts to snowball on him.

 

Comments

33 thoughts on “Rasmussen Shows Mixed Bag for Bennet

    1. In 2010 the “generic Republican candidate” may always look better to voters than the “actual Republican candidate.” The more they learn, the less voters like.

    2. Question is will we change the Governor out if his numbers don’t improve.

      I think Jane Norton would have been up 5-6 points over Bennet especially if you educate the voter on each.

  1. I’m out-of-town and just logged on.  Do we know the methodology for this poll?  Was it an automated robo phone poll or a traditional poll with real people talking to a scientific sample of real voters?  

          1. Romanoff seems to be another “smartest guy in the room type” (sorry Mike B) so his manager pick will be interesting. Will he pick a doormat or someone who will add value?  

                    1.    He’s got experience running a Senate campaign and the state party.  He just needs to get some of the kinks out.

                    2. Craig Goldman…the guys who ran five states out here for McCain. Colorado was one of those states.  He lives in DC.

  2. Also, huge favor for himself.

    A Democratic Primary will raise awareness and name recognition for both B & R. Discussion of the issues will help public pay attention to their positions.

    Best of all, a primary will “focus” Bennett on serving his constituents.

  3. Let’s talk some numbers here.  Among Dems in this poll Bennet is 86-6 vs. Buck and 83-9 vs. Frazier.  Also Bennet’s favorable rating is 75% among Dems. The bottom line is that Senator Bennet is doing well among his base D voters.  

    1. what are Bennet’s numbers vs a primary candidate?

      your numbers point out that 6 or 9 % of Democrats would rather vote for a Republican than for him – in a state where it takes every dem and a majority of independents to get a democrat elected statewide.

      1. It takes every repub and a majority of independents. You always have a few disaffected in each party that go vote for the other guy. 9% is worrisome but not that big a deal this far out, especially when put up against a generic repub rather than a specific.

        With that said, while I think Bennet will win, I also think Ken Buck will make him work his ass off for that win.

          1. he doesn’t get hit by a comet, either.

            Wade, your hysteria that 6 to 9 percent of Democrats — how’d you put it, all italicized? — would rather vote for a Republican than for him is misplaced. That’s a remarkably high level of party loyalty, especially for a candidate who hasn’t been around that long.

            Last year, Mark Udall managed to beat Bob Schaffer even though 8 percent of Democrats said they’d vote for Bob Schaffer instead of Mark Udall. You don’t get much better party loyalty than that.

            http://www.publicpolicypolling

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