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August 25, 2009 07:31 PM UTC

The New-Look GOP Field for U.S. Senate

  • 20 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Republicans have lately been dropping in and out of the U.S. Senate race like it’s a student council seat, so we thought it time to take a new look at what’s what now that we’re past the 12 month mark until the primary.

TOP OF THE LINE

  • Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton

  • Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck

    It’s been more than a decade since Colorado last had a female candidate running for a top job (Governor or U.S. Senate), and that gives Norton a big advantage because it makes her interesting. Political campaigns are about telling stories, and the best stories are the ones you haven’t heard before. Norton also has a good background to run on, has deep financial connections, and she’ll cut an attractive image on television.

    That doesn’t mean that Norton is without question marks, however. Norton has been mentioned as a potential candidate for everything from Governor to Congress in the last decade, but she always took a pass on what seemed at the time to be good opportunities. Was she just waiting for the right moment, and felt that 2010 was finally that time? Or is running for office something she really doesn’t feel in her gut? Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet has had two monster fundraising quarters, and it’s going to take a lot of effort to be able to catch up to him.

    As for Buck, he’s been working hard and was the only GOP candidate to raise any kind of legitimate money in the first fundraising period. He’s sufficiently conservative enough (and probably too far to the right, for a general election, frankly) to win a primary, but what’s the best-case scenario here? This was Buck’s nomination to lose until the GOP found someone better, which may have just happened with Norton. While Buck has been putting in the shoe leather and doing his damndest to make a real run at this, his ceiling just isn’t that high. Buck is what he is, but can he ever be more than that?

    THEORETICAL CONTENDER

  • Former State Sen. Tom Wiens

    • When Wiens resigned from the Senate a few years ago, the working assumption was that he was going to devote himself full-time to a run for Governor. At the time, Wiens had the credentials and the personal wealth to make a strong bid in 2010, but a lot has changed in less than two years. For one thing, Wiens is widely rumored to be having personal financial troubles, which makes it tough to run statewide for dogcatcher. Wiens has also been off the grid for a little too long now; when he first resigned, he could have moved quickly into an exploratory campaign for Governor and kept his name ID and conservative credentials at the forefront of voter’s minds. But now?

    If everything lined up right, we think Wiens could be a potentially tough candidate. But it doesn’t look like anything is lining up correctly at this point, and we have real doubts that Wiens will even be an official candidate three months from now.

    NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME

  • Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier

    • It made sense for Frazier to take a shot here-it really did. With no obvious candidate on the GOP side and a little-known incumbent, this was as good a year as there has ever been for an unknown candidate to emerge from nowhere. For a time Frazier had even managed to generate a good deal of excitement among a group of Republicans, but then reality hit. In his first full fundraising quarter, Frazier went out and laid an egg, raising a paltry $140k (compared to $330k for Buck and $1.2 million for Bennet). And that was that.

    Frazier’s campaign isn’t completely dead, but it’s definitely on life-support. His only real chance at winning the nomination was to come out strong and show people that he really had what it took to be a statewide player despite a tiny resume. When he didn’t do that, top GOP supporters started looking elsewhere.

    Someone who was just an Aurora city council member should never have even been considered for the U.S. Senate, and there was no harm in trying to seize the moment. But that moment has definitely passed, and with Norton’s entry into the race, there really isn’t room for Frazier anymore.

    And please, don’t mention that Frazier has done well in straw polls. Nobody cares.

    CLEVE TIDWELL DIVISION

  • Businessman Cleve Tidwell

    • Um, yeah.

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    20 thoughts on “The New-Look GOP Field for U.S. Senate”

    2. I think this conversation really shows the lack of GOP bench.  

      1) Neither republican congressman seems interested in leaving their heavily republican districts, or else they are naturally the prime people for the senate jump.

      2) Buck and Frazier are both interesting candidates…but not yet.  Buck raised some money but not enough and doesn’t have the statewide name ID; Frazier is a dynamic speaker but raised nearly nothing for this kind of race.  Both would be better served jumping to a mid level office and trying a bit down the road (I’ve wondered why Buck didn’t try to knock off Markey personally).

      3) Other names being discussed are near fossils in politics.  Yes, I know Norton was Lt. Governor only a few years ago, but that’s a long time in politics, with nothing to show for the recent years.  The fact that Bob Beauprez even thought of it shows that none of the other candidates are serious enough contenders.

      With Penry going after Ritter, there is a clear lack of qualified, interesting people.  Folks who should be in positions to rise don’t seem interested (the two congressmen, John Suthers, Mike May, etc), and everyone else has been beaten in recent elections and are viewed as nonviable.

      So the question is: where do republicans find their candidates looking forward to 2012?  (Or even 2010 still if there are people out there who can do it).  Are there other rising stars in the legislature or elsewhere who can be more serious contenders?

      Appointed Senators usually have a rough first cycle, and many don’t make it.  In this instance though, it looks like the Republicans don’t have anyone who can even give Bennet a decent run for his (large amounts of) money.

        1. I think he has a bad taste in his mouth after the primary for his replacement.

          Also, he’s now in his 70s if I remember.  It’s not unheard of for a new senator, but a rough schedule to keep on the campaign trail.

    3. Someone who was just an Aurora city council member should never have even been considered for the U.S. Senate

      I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that. Aurora city council is an elected office in the state’s third largest city. I don’t think Bennet’s ever been elected to a public office.

      Obama was “just” a first term Senator from Illinois and given little chance of winning the nomination against the Clinton machine, let alone getting elected president.  

        1. When he first ran in 2003, and won one of four at-large seats in a contest where voters could vote for two and the top two finishers won

          Ryan Frazier 14,672

          Brad Pierce 11,866

          Ginny Zinth 11,566

          followed by four more also-rans.

          When he won re-election in 2007, vote was:

          Ryan Frazier 14,645

          Brad Pierce 14,116

          Pam Bennett 11,777

          followed by two others.

          In the 2007 election, Frazier raised in the neighborhood of $75,000.

            1. Nothing against Frazier, as we’ve said before, but Aurora CC to U.S. Senate is just way too big of a leap for anyone to make. Those vote totals wouldn’t even equal one-third of a congressional district.  

    5. I wonder why some of the Republicans at the statehouse aren’t interested in taking on Bennet. Specifically, there are some pretty conservative veteran legislators down there who the base of the GOP might like – Lundberg and Brophy, for example.

      I’m not saying those guys could beat Bennet, but they might be able to win a primary.

      And, if we’re talking the past, what about Tancredo, Joe Rogers, the last Republican secretary of state – can’t remember her name – or Joel Hefley?

      I don’t know much about why those guys aren’t active in politics right at the moment, so forgive me if that comes across. . . 🙂

      1. maybe they realized that

        a) they an make way more $ out of gov’t

        or

        b) the inherent hypocrisy of claiming a core ideology that says gov’t is bad, but so aggressively seeking to be a part of it

      2. But he just retired from a safe seat in Congress, and doesn’t sound interested in running again. Same with Hefley – he’s retired, and not ambitious. Rogers burned a lot of bridges when he tried running in various primaries and has disappeared for the most part.

        As for Lundberg and Brophy, while both are right-wing enough to win a primary based on ideals, neither could likely raise the kind of money they’d need to convey that message. Both are big fish in small ponds, but they’d be eaten up in a bigger ocean.

    6. Hey, give Tidwell a break. How can you NOT elect a guy who (to quote from tidwellforsenate.com):

         * stands on the fundamental foundations of the Constitution of the United States of America and the voice of the people who strongly support Economic Growth and Development…

      Well, actually, it’s not so cool for him to stand on the Constitution, and I’m not sure how you stand on a voice. But I like that he supports Economic Growth and Development, unlike those other candidates who support Economic Shrinkage.

         * will bring experience to Washingtona at a time that it is needed most.

      That’s what we need: experience in Washingtona!

         * is one of us, and he will stand with us, and he will fight for us.

      He’ll get us our country back!

      And there’s so much more to Cleve Tidwell! Don’t count him out…

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