Wednesday Open Thread

28
  by: Colorado Pols November 8, 2017 at 5:22 AM MST

“There was never a night or a problem that could defeat sunrise or hope.”

–Bernard Williams

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28 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Pseudonymous says:
    November 8, 2017 at 5:31 AM MST

    Coffman throws herself on the grenade that is the Republican gubernatorial primary race.

    Cynthia Coffman is running for governor of Colorado, adding to long list of GOP primary candidates

  2. Gilpin Guy says:
    November 8, 2017 at 9:00 AM MST

    Wouldn't it be nice to get Buck out in open for a statewide seat.  No cover of deep red districts to hide behind.  The downside is he could win but the possibility of a humiliating loss would be worth the risk.

  3. ParkHill says:
    November 8, 2017 at 9:01 AM MST

    WOTD from Clare at fivethirtyeight.com

    Best imaginary headline ever:

    Clare: Dems Sweep Virginia; Bannonites crush sour grapes to make victory wine for insurgent, swamp-draining 2018 midterms.

  4. Conserv. Head Banger says:
    November 8, 2017 at 9:29 AM MST

    Changing topics a bit, but still on politics…… Anyone see the obituary in the Denver Post in the past week for the last of the elder Smaldones? When I moved here several decades ago, the occasional big news was on alleged corruption in Adams County and the alleged Mafia ties of the Smaldone family. Times do change, except in Adams County.

  5. Voyageur says:
    November 8, 2017 at 11:09 AM MST

    Richmond times dispatch says dems picked up 3 open seats and beat 13 republicans to win  50-50 tie in the house of delegates.  Two recounts of close r victories could tip it to dems.  One r seat is just a 12 vote edge and there are reportedly some provisional ballots uncounted.  In my experience, provisionals tend to go democratic.

    Gawd, I'm tired of winning!

  6. RepealAndReplace says:
    November 8, 2017 at 11:56 AM MST

    Just sent $100 to the Doug Jones campaign….

    I may send another $100 next week. I encourage everyone else on here to send whatever you are able to send.

    Remember, the more money that goes to the Jones campaign, the more time the chair of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee must spend dialing for dollars for Roy Moore.

     

  9. itlduso says:
    November 8, 2017 at 2:23 PM MST

    What's up with the VA pollsters?  The average RCP of several polls showed Northampton up by 3.3 points and losing momentum.  He won by about 9 points.  Professional pollsters these days are no better than weathermen, or even worse.

    • RepealAndReplace says:
      November 8, 2017 at 2:41 PM MST

      Two words to explain it……

      FAKE NEWS!

    • Pseudonymous says:
      November 8, 2017 at 3:16 PM MST

      The RCP average was Northam +3.3%.  The mean MoE was 3.4%.  So, a 3.3% advantage within 6.8% means he could win by 10.1% and the polls still be "right."

      • itlduso says:
        November 8, 2017 at 5:38 PM MST

        You're correct,  but it seems the difference between showers and a freakin hurricane.

        • Pseudonymous says:
          November 8, 2017 at 6:00 PM MST

          Yeah, I don't disagree.  I think it's about pollsters (and the media) presenting their data in ways that make races appear different than the data actually support.  Saying the race is 52-48 with a 3% margin of error is more satisfying and fits better into a soundbite than saying that we're 95% sure that candidate A will win by anywhere up to 10 points or lose by as much as 2 points.  Of course, that brevity makes a 10 point win or 2 point loss look like the polls completely blew it.

    • JohnInDenver says:
      November 8, 2017 at 5:52 PM MST

      Turnout models of the polls make a huge difference. Compared to the last similar election (2013), turnout was up 18% (from 2.2 mil to 2.6 mil). Composition of that turnout changed, too — basically mirroring last year's Presidential election rather than the "usual" off-year election with Democratic voters staying home.

  10. MichaelBowman says:
    November 8, 2017 at 4:58 PM MST

    Will he be home in time for dinner? 

    NJ official who mocked Women's March defeated by candidate he inspired to run

    Carman posted a meme on the day of the Women’s March that featured a woman in a kitchen and the message, “Will the women's protest be over in time for them to cook dinner?"

    "Just asking?" he wrote alongside the meme.

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