April 14, 2009 06:44 AM UTC

New Cook PVI confirms tilt in 4th Congressional District

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• by: BobMoore

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Cook Political Report released its new Partisan Voting Index numbers Monday, further evidence that Republicans’ traditional advantage in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District is eroding.

You can see my full blog post here: http://www.coloradoan.com/apps…

But here are some of the key implications of Cook’s new rating of the 4th as R+6, as compared to R+9 after the 2004 election:

— Only 11 districts in the nation showed a greater shift toward Democrats in the updated PVI ratings.

— There are 22 seats currently held by Democrats with a higher Republican PVI than the 4th Congressional District, meaning they might make more inviting targets as Republicans prioritize spending and other resources. (Several of these seats are held by Democrats who have been in Congress two or more terms, and they’re usually more difficult to unseat than a freshman.)

— Including Betsy Markey in CO4, nine Democrats currently hold R+6 seats. That means there are 31 Democratic seats in districts with an RPI of +6 or more. The good news for Republicans is that they have a number of potential targets; the bad news is that it’s extremely unlikely they’ll have the resources to seriously contest all 31. So they’ll have to make some choices.