President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 14, 2009 06:44 AM UTC
10 Comments
The only way it becomes even close is if the economy gets worse. Betsy campaigned perfectly and is continuing to do so perfectly. And her campaign staff is one of the best anywhere.
Give her another 6 years and she’ll have her district leans Dem because of her work…
Even if the Republicans hold their edge, it doesn’t mean Markey is in trouble. The Cook PVI still shows a GOP edge in CO-3 but Salazar isn’t in any danger.
the PVI is R+6, but the Cook Report still rates CD-4 as Leans Democratic.
W/ Betsy’s strong fundraising and the sound of crickets coming from the GOP side, Markey’s odds are looking better every day.
Think about it, the big question they have after Beuprez & Schaffer is can they find a candidate for Gov and/or Senate that won’t self-destruct. Not do they have one who can win, but can they merely find one who won’t crater big time.
For SoS and Treasurer they’ve basically given up. Same for CD-3 & CD-7, both of which are very competitive. And for CD-4 they are again trying to find someone who can compete – in a district that leans Repub.
This is really quite sad.
While the change in R+ ranking is certainly indicative, I would guess that it is the change in how the independents vote that is more important. I don’t know about CO4, but in Colorado overall, I’s are about a third of the voters.
but the Republicans are loosing their edge in the heart of the 4th CD. Between 2006 and 2008, the Republican registration lead in Larimer County declined by 25%; in Weld county by 10% and although I don’t have the figures for the slice of Boulder County that is in the 4th CD, it seems likely that the same happened there too.
Even on the East Plains, the Republican advantage has declined. In Morgan County during the same period, the Republican edge declined by 7% and the district witnessed the same percentage decline in Logan County. Sedgewick County saw a decline of 5%. Yuma saw a decline of 3%. Even in the most conservative areas of the 4th CD, the Republican brand is declining.
This isn’t going to change until the Republican Party makes a major course correction. God, guns, gays and abortion aren’t the issues people are going to base their vote on. Also, the Republican Party has to begin dealing with facts instead of fantasies like higher education. In Colorado, the public wants and supports higher educaiton and yet the Republican Party still supports and features as major spokesmen for the party people like former Rep. Beauprez and former State Senate President John Andrews who have openly advocated the terminaiton of public funding for higher education.
that the era of Pot Banging politics is over.
The problem is that their party’s “leadership” consists of pundit-wannabes who still think pot-banging and gay-baiting is the ticket to success because it feeds their egos and helps them hawk their various websites, radio shows, and shitty books.
They still think there’s a functioning synergy between good politics and their personal success and influence that comes through pot-banging activism. There isn’t. Until the yahoos like Andrew and Beauprez are cleaned out and replaced with thinking adults, the die is cast.
And it’s a really bad sign that the John Birch wing of the party is wetting itself over a demonstrably unwell Glenn Beck, because it is going to up the ante for guys like Andrews and Beauprez to crank up the crazy to keep proving their bona fides.
on “Peak Wingnut”, sort of like “Peak Oil”.
It’s a moment when the right wing whackos get so insane that they can’t get any crazier–they can only get less crazy.
Maybe they will approach that point as they try to out-crazy eachother.
It’s how people vote, not how they are registered.
Hard core farm economy counties are losing population. Working class and middle class bedroom communities in the North I-25 corridor are gaining in population. The two areas vote differently and care about different issues. Neither is uber-liberal, but the issues that are important in the district politically have shifted from social issues to pocket book issues, which are less partisan.
Also, while redistricting will make significant changes in how the lines of Colorado’s seven districts are drawn after the 2010 census, I’ve tinkered with the numbers a bit, and it is pretty hard to draw lines without a district that looks a lot like the current 4th CD — and Democrats would be inclined to make it more even in partisan voter registration. So, this is likely to be a long term stable trend.
If Betsy Markey survives the 2010 election by more than a razor thin margin, she is likely to become a Colorado institution; there for the long haul.